Your thoughts on when life will be normal-ish

[charcb]

I realise this is purely speculative but what are people's thoughts on when we will be back to a semi-normal reality? Knowing what you know on vaccinations, when, according to you, can we expect the most simple of things to be back up and running again? I am referring to the simplest of things such as getting people back to their offices/places of work, having shops/gyms/entertainment venues permanently open, and the like?

I know we are a long way away from normal as we know it and that it may take several years to go back to it so I am not talking to getting back to total normality - ie no masks, no social distance, no restrictions.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds/amp

The above is an interesting article on some cognitive biases we naturally have.

Many people do not believe that we will go back to normal despite having a vaccine that works and a strategy to inoculate the vulnerable.

It strikes me that by far the most plausible scenario is that things will be virtually normal by may/June and fully normal after that.

I think it is the same bias that prevented people REALLY believing that we would see a pandemic in their lifetime, despite the probability that we would.

Thewheelsonthebus23 How people last may/June when asked when we will be back to normal said the Autumn, I truly hope we get some resemblance of normal, but honestly can’t see that till next year as things stand now, I hope I’m wrong, but I never envisioned in June that in Jan 2021 we would be having 1,500 deaths a day.

@Sirius99

Thewheelsonthebus23 How people last may/June when asked when we will be back to normal said the Autumn, I truly hope we get some resemblance of normal, but honestly can’t see that till next year as things stand now, I hope I’m wrong, but I never envisioned in June that in Jan 2021 we would be having 1,500 deaths a day.

You know that nearly 2000 die a day and there will be even more deaths due to the pandemic you just don't hear of it

Spiratedaway, we are running 35% above a five year monthly average for deaths, all Covid related, people die everyday without Covid, you can’t catch Cancer or Copd etc, you can Covid

@Sirius99 There’s the very small fact that last May/June we didn’t have a vaccine?

It’s like people have had a lobotomy, that or they don’t believe the vaccine will work. It’s very perplexing. We have 1,500 deaths per day now as
we are in a second peak. Even without a vaccine this wouldn’t continue indefinitely. But we do have many effective vaccines. Thank god for science!
No pandemic has lasted forever! Even back in the days with no vaccines.

That article explains a lot...

The op question was when do people think we will return to NORMAL, People have to have the vaccine twice and it starts fully protecting 2 weeks after the second jab, I’m in my late fifties and may date is looking luckily end of August atm, how are we going to return to normal this year really?

@Sirius99

Thewheelsonthebus23 How people last may/June when asked when we will be back to normal said the Autumn, I truly hope we get some resemblance of normal, but honestly can’t see that till next year as things stand now, I hope I’m wrong, but I never envisioned in June that in Jan 2021 we would be having 1,500 deaths a day.

Really? That's exactly what I thought would happen (I'm honestly not trying to be 'clever' here or anything!)

We already know that winter is a terrible time for death in the UK, that the NHS is always very busy with flu etc and that bugs spread so much more easily. This was all totally foreseeable.

Nothing that has happened so far in this pandemic is anything that I wasn't expecting: a lockdown to get numbers down initially, a lull during the summer when the weather is warm and people are generally in better health, and then going back into autumn/winter, with schools going back and everything else things getting bad again, to where we are now.

In fact the only thing I hadn't envisaged at this point was a vaccine coming so quickly!

Delatron The Spanish flu was around for a couple of years like Asian flu, there wasn’t as many people around then and international travel was not as easy as now

Sorry @Sirius99 but you are therefore in a low risk group. The country isn’t waiting for you to have the vaccine before getting back to normal!

The op question was when do people think we will return to NORMAL, People have to have the vaccine twice and it starts fully protecting 2 weeks after the second jab, I’m in my late fifties and may date is looking luckily end of August atm, how are we going to return to normal this year really?

It gives a lot of protection after the first jab, enough to certainly start getting numbers of hospitalisations down.

In terms of locking down the economy/schooling etc, that's all that really matters.

Wow the Spanish flu was only around for a few years yet killed mainly the young, and there was no vaccine?

Yet this will be worse....hmm.

The only silver lining is at least nobody seems to have colds and flu this winter, masks and social distancing has stopped the spread of that

Yes, this isn't about individuals and their personal safety - things will have to start getting back to normal once the most vulnerable, the people who are most likely to need hospitalisation, are vaccinated.

The government doesn’t care about individuals it isn’t waiting for everyone to be vaccinated. The minute the hospitals can cope we will open up the economy.

@Sirius99

The only silver lining is at least nobody seems to have colds and flu this winter, masks and social distancing has stopped the spread of that

Yes, I have literally not had a cold this whole winter so far which is absolutely unprecedented for me and one a the few but huge perks of this whole thing!

@Jetatyeovilaerodrome

Yes, this isn't about individuals and their personal safety - things will have to start getting back to normal once the most vulnerable, the people who are most likely to need hospitalisation, are vaccinated.

That’s right

Delatron It weakened as time went on but only after killing up to 50 million people,

If we had decent government and followed the elimination route I think we could go back to relatively normal by 2022. If people would forgo their holiday abroad in summer and the vaccination programme proceeds as planned , we could have a reasonably relaxed summer with staycations, and a much better Autumn/ Winter .But our borders would need to be closed which will never happen while Boris is in charge.

As Devi Sridhar said - would you prefer a normal life here or a summer holiday - both are not possible.

So, do you honestly think that the government will, after the top 4 groups of people have had their second jab, ( what ever date that will be ) just let everything just revert to normal, I would be amazed

Good job this isn’t the Spanish flu then and we have a vaccine..

This has been pretty much our normal for 5 years, and catching Covid has further impacted on my DD's health.

So I do hope that when people get back to their normal, they remember that hundreds of thousands of people in the UK live like this every day and will continue to. My one hope for this pandemic is that people gain a wider appreciation of the impact and extent of disability and social isolation in our society.

Of course it will! Why will there be restrictions if people aren’t dying in large numbers and the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed?

@Sirius99

So, do you honestly think that the government will, after the top 4 groups of people have had their second jab, ( what ever date that will be ) just let everything just revert to normal, I would be amazed

Once hospitals are within capacity MPs won’t vote for heavy restrictions. Whether they will any restrictions hard to know. Possibly not if restrictions mean sectors suffering economically. Constituents will put on pressure.

Delatron Because the government will not want any flare ups in numbers, people below the top 4 groups can and will catch it and end up in hospital, There could be changes in the virus that makes the vaccine not as efficient, just because you want it to be over and back to normal it doesn’t mean it will be.

Well in the UK I reckon by May everything will start opening up again, pubs, theatres, cinemas etc providing vaccinations go as planned

In terms of travel we won't be able to go anywhere that hasn't a;ready vaccinated the majority of their population, so probably end of 2023 for global travel wherever you want