Your thoughts on when life will be normal-ish

[charcb]

I realise this is purely speculative but what are people's thoughts on when we will be back to a semi-normal reality? Knowing what you know on vaccinations, when, according to you, can we expect the most simple of things to be back up and running again? I am referring to the simplest of things such as getting people back to their offices/places of work, having shops/gyms/entertainment venues permanently open, and the like?

I know we are a long way away from normal as we know it and that it may take several years to go back to it so I am not talking to getting back to total normality - ie no masks, no social distance, no restrictions.

I define 'normal-normal' as going into a crowded venue without any thought, as I did in 2019.

I fear this will not come back for a long time

Things back like last summer? Well I hope for 2022. I hope we don't repeat 2020's errors in 2021 - the stupid summer unlocking caused the mutation, the high background circulation and ultimately this lockdown.

But we have a very foolish PM and a useless government, so I am not hopeful.

I work in a Junior school, and looked at our Y4s the other week and thought that they haven't had a normal school year with us yet, and that hopefully their Y6 will be normal. I think even with most adults vaccinated, next winter there will still be a chance for it to spread amongst children if they're not vaccinated, so we could see bubble closures, despite life mostly being normal. Hopefully by the 22/23 year, we can have proper normal.

People have this idea that they are obeying things out of kindness and, at some point, they may just choose not to. They don’t seem to have the same attitude towards most other laws.

People will obey the laws as long as they are on the statute book. And, if enough choose not to that it becomes an issue, enforcement will increase.

However, in reality, once the over 60s are vaccinated, Covid hospital admissions will collapse and the laws will change to allow more contact.

Get,

Once the 50+ group are vaccinated, It will spread among the younger population but it won’t be dangerous. There won’t be bubbles or closures. It will just be another winter bug which goes around.

the laws will change to allow more contact

I will not personally want to risk many things though, and that economic issue will have to be addressed.

By leaving the virus circulating the economy will be impacted going forwards. If covid is still circulating, I will not go to the theatre or a school play or church.

I am sure plenty will - but if only half do, where does that leave our economy and our society?

Certainly not 'back to normal'

@TheReluctantPhoenix

Get,

Once the 50+ group are vaccinated, It will spread among the younger population but it won’t be dangerous. There won’t be bubbles or closures. It will just be another winter bug which goes around.

Think you may have missed the fact the virus mutated?

The mutation risk is real.

GoldenOmber most of the population won’t be vaccinated by summer. They said by October.

if you think of last summer there was a great degree of normality without a vaccine

There really wasn't, if you live in parts of the country where there were tighter restrictions. And in the places there weren't, I'd hardly have called it anything approaching normal. More normal than currently, perhaps, but it's relative. If somebody had told me in summer 2019 what summer 2020 was going to be like I'd have thought they were bonkers.

OP, I think summer 2022, too. I think we're going to have a bumpy winter next year - Christ Whitty said there might be restrictions next winter. I can't see how this will all be neatly done and dusted in 11 months.

Within 2 years

I do not live in the UK but feel like part of the reason for the current situation there is people’s desperation to ‘return to normal’ in late summer and autumn. It felt like everyone had gone mad, travelling all over Europe, the eat out voucher scheme etc, as if everyone forgot there was still a pandemic when cases dropped. There is surely a midpoint between normal and lockdown. I think until vaccination covers a large percentage of the population the risk will remain and a better approach may be keeping some restrictions for the rest of 2021, gradually reducing them over the next 10-12 months. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing.

@Christmasfairy2020

Positive thinking. I'm going on holiday in August and its happening

Me too! Went on holiday august 2020 so this year is absolutely happening!

Inquietant,

You ‘might have missed’ (passive aggressive, much!) my previous post where I highlighted vaccine escape as a risk to the central scenario.

So far, no vaccine escape (the technical term for where a virus has sufficiently mutated for vaccines to no longer work) has been shown to have occurred, especially for the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine which works on multiple spike proteins.

I also said that the current vaccines can be tweaked in weeks, far faster than this large, slowly mutating virus, can change. So vaccine escape might delay my scenario by a couple of months, but not fundamentally change it.

People are also missing the fact that once over 50s have been vaccinated it won’t matter if there is some spread between children. They won’t close schools because of this! Because it won’t impact the NHS or overwhelm hospitals.

This is what people are failing to understand. Once the hospitals can function ok there will be no reason to carry on restrictions.

@Megan2018 and you don’t seem to understand the fact that once this virus presents no risk to overwhelm the NHS it will cease to be something that we need to have restrictions for.

Of course scientists are saying it will mutate, that is what viruses do. And they are also saying that vaccines will be tweaked easily.

Of course this virus will stick around, probably forever. But once it ceases to cause huge death rates and overwhelm the hospitals then economic restrictions will be lifted.

I don’t think we’ll ever go back to the old normal

We’ll have restrictions for years

DS supposed to start uni in September, I can’t imagine he’ll actually be in lectures and labs as “normal”

Everything has changed. We don’t just have the virus, we have the fear. The virus will be here, the fear will be here. The NHS is overwhelmed every winter, but now this means they’ll close the country (every winter)

Honestly, i can’t see us ever going back to normal

Schools, gyms, holidays will be back on and off, but that’s it

There are mutations, there will be new viruses. Corona has exposed the Achilles heel of society. This is it.

Once the vulnerable are vaccinated they are saying that should reduce deaths and hospitalisations by 90%. What would be the justification for restrictions then.

Also once I’ve had the vaccine and my parents Il’ll be visiting them restrictions or not. I’ll obv comply with any that exist in public but the government are deluded if they think they can expect the vaccinated not to start enjoying the advantages.

Yes we’ll never go back to normal. It will be like this forever 🙄.

Even though the virus won’t cause a high death rate or hospitalisations. That won’t matter. The fact that people are still a bit scared means we will continue to rank the economy forever. Yep.

@Delatron

People are also missing the fact that once over 50s have been vaccinated it won’t matter if there is some spread between children. They won’t close schools because of this! Because it won’t impact the NHS or overwhelm hospitals.

This is what people are failing to understand. Once the hospitals can function ok there will be no reason to carry on restrictions.

Who knows we might not report cases, deaths or even count the former. Looking forward to messaging switching when hospitalisation numbers not an issue.

People are terrified well beyond what is reasonable and I don’t see how any significant number of people will want to go to the cinema, the theatre or a restaurant fir years to come

The fact people are terrified isn’t a good reason to keep restrictions for those of us who are not.

Once my vaccine is effective I’ll happily do all these things. The risk of serious illness even if it can still catch it will be low. I didn’t live my life cowering in fear of becoming mildly ill before I won’t do it now.

Also the same behavioural scientists whose job it is to scare the shit out of us now will change their messaging to try and get people to be less fearful.

Yes the economy won’t stay shut down just because people are terrified. They can stay at home. The rest will be happily getting on with their lives.

@Delatron I didn’t say there would be economic restrictions!!! The OP asked about Normal. I think you are just being deliberately obtuse.

Do you think that if for example covid is always around,but in lesser numbers, and the nhs can deal with it, we will still have the 10 day isolation period for the household...?
I'm thinking if it becomes "just another illness" will an entire household need to isolate? Because that would still be pretty disruptive (both in an individual level and economically) I know for chicken pox you must not mix until all spots are scabbed /dried out (about 7 days)and noro is usually 48 hours after last "incident " but neither apply to the rest of the household.

@Fizbosshoes

Do you think that if for example covid is always around,but in lesser numbers, and the nhs can deal with it, we will still have the 10 day isolation period for the household...? I'm thinking if it becomes "just another illness" will an entire household need to isolate? Because that would still be pretty disruptive (both in an individual level and economically) I know for chicken pox you must not mix until all spots are scabbed /dried out (about 7 days)and noro is usually 48 hours after last "incident " but neither apply to the rest of the household.

I think that might depend on whether the household is vaccinated. I do see isolation for the infected person being here to stay though.

Nice backtracking @Megan2018

You said years more of varying restrictions. Very scaremongering post. Your virologist mates no doubt will be studying this virus for years but the economists and the government who decide policy will need things back up and running a lot sooner than a few years.

I guess it boils down to what you call ‘normalish’.
Masks wearing and some working from home are very minor things and I wouldn’t consider those ‘restrictions’.

Anything like school closures, shop closures, business closures etc would have too much of an economic impact and won’t be considered once this virus doesn’t cause a high death rate.