So Gav says schools could stay shut beyond half term.....

[Coldwinterahead1]

I'm guessing after Easter. What does everyone else think?

@Kolo

Well so far the statistics are getting worse. Deaths and new cases rising exponentially. Today we're reporting almost double the deaths in the US. Things are really bad here and they haven't started improving. I won't be holding my breath for return to school.

Have you looked at case numbers for last few days? They have started to turn corner.

Deaths will lag.

Deaths are rising as they are trailing up to 3 weeks behind the positive cases stat.

The positive cases stat is slowly reducing.

In three weeks time then, we will start to see a reduction in the deaths (theoretically).

If people are saying until next September will this cycle continue forever. Teaching on site sept - Dec only?

The earliest they’ll open is after Easter. 19th April.
96 days.
I’m on a countdown.
My worry is more than they don’t open at all until September. I’m trying not to think about that.

@MarshaBradyo I don't trust the data until a few days later as there's so many issues with late reporting.

I'm guessing til Easter, and from the start they said until at least half term, meaning they were'nt promising everyone back after february half term.
I'd rather they said that than promise an unrealistic date and then go against it.
But as far as my kids are concerned its until half term!

...as in I've told them its until half term...and will give more info when we know more.

[quote Kolo]@MarshaBradyo I don't trust the data until a few days later as there's so many issues with late reporting. [/quote]
It may be a bit early to say. A rolling week average would be better. Fingers crossed it continues.

School definitely closed because of the unions, they would have forced them to go in if they had not started legal action.

The vulnerable at my Gp aren’t getting vaccinated till June

So I reckon summer and after

No way can I last beyond Feb, the home learning demand has totally ramped up now and I am really struggling to cope with it all.

If they reopen when over 50s are vaccinated then covid will rip through the under 50s. With a 1 in 1000 death rate and 20% long covid rate, that doesn't seem a great idea. Something else has to happen before schools can reopen.

@Cherrysherbet

Stop speculating ffs. Nobody knows when this shit will be over. What’s the point??

Absolutely agree! We just need to wait and see how the situation develops, and what the government announces.

Hundreds of people coming on here with random guesses of when it might be over helps no one.

@LickEmbysmiling

School definitely closed because of the unions, they would have forced them to go in if they had not started legal action.

“How Matt Hancock, Michael Gove and Chris Whitty talked Boris into a third lockdown: 'Bullish' PM wanted to keep schools open before caving to pressure after visiting a struggling hospital”

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9128293/How-Matt-Hancock-Michael-Gove-Chris-Whitty-convinced-Boris-Johnson-close-schools.html

If the Mail could’ve blamed the unions it would have. The issue was the rampant covid in schools, not the unions.

justajot it has already ripped through the under 50s they are very much driving the spread - it suddenly wont decide to kill them as well. The numbers are still fairly low for deaths in the under 50s.

And long covid is somewhere between 1 in 20 to 1 in 10 - not 20%

But they will reopen schools I think the latest the Easter term. Feb half term is the same length of lockdown for London/SE when they started opening them last time

@BernadetteRostankowskiWolowitz

Deaths are rising as they are trailing up to 3 weeks behind the positive cases stat.

The positive cases stat is slowly reducing.

In three weeks time then, we will start to see a reduction in the deaths (theoretically).

Worst daily death rate today and the timeframe is 3 weeks since Christmas

I'm petrified about this. I can see my dds mental health deteriorating every day...I can cope till half term but any longer and I don't know how she will manage.

Before Christmas, DS school had 100 out of 240 children ill or isolating, plus several staff members. And at that point we were in tier 2.

@LickEmbysmiling

School definitely closed because of the unions, they would have forced them to go in if they had not started legal action.

That explains why nurseries are still open - no Union.

I wonder if the unions/teachers are regretting this now. Teachers in my son’s school are now having to work twice as hard with the online learning as well as teaching pupils in class.

@formerbabe me too my dd has gone monosyllabic and you have to repeat everything you say to her. she neeeeeds to go back. fingers crossed for Easter. report in Grauniad saying bj will be judged by his colleagues on the vax rollout

I don't think any one who is at home safe could possibly be regretting it.

It's a shame that more people can't keep dc at home. It's ridiculous to try and assert the union pressure had nothing to do with it, of course it did.
That's a good thing and now the gov knows they can't force or push them around like non entities.

Welsh numbers on average are finally improving since locking down on December 20th and are now better than they were in mid December when schools were still open. I have no idea why people are so intent on all the negativity.

For selfish reasons I worry about Y9 Ds. I feel if they do go back in September, for which he’ll then be in Y10, there will be huge gaps to fill of lost learning. Following year being GCSE year

He’s just not learning the same at home. School are setting lessons and I can’t fault them but it’s no comparison to being in school with a teacher and his cohort.

I wonder if the unions/teachers are regretting this now. Teachers in my son’s school are now having to work twice as hard with the online learning as well as teaching pupils in class

It’s hard work, but close contact with others is at least reduced.

Schools were closed because it was published that school children were up to 7 times more likely to be index case in a home.
It's not the kids who end up but icu but those they take the virus home to.

The unions didn't demand schools closed. They asked for reduced class sizes for safety and for SD and for them to open for KW and vulnerable children. They advised their workers to offer to work under those conditions.

I don't think they'll remain closed after half term for everyone. Right now they have certain areas of education fully open (special schools, AP units, nurseries and pre schools.)

I think they'll go for a phased return but I don't know what groups they'll do? Or if they'll agree to blended learning and rotas which is what unions suggested for September to keep classes smaller.

I also think it'll remain KW and vulnerable in FT so it'll take some planning.

The question is whether GAV and Boris can actually get their act together and plan!