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We need to be given an end date

344 replies

Billie18 · 12/01/2021 09:10

Vaccinations being rolled out and there will be a date when the elderly and/or vulnerable will have been vaccinated. It should be possible to announce a date now when this will have happened. On this date all restrictions should be lifted. Why has no date been given?

OP posts:
CloudPop · 12/01/2021 14:31

@ZazieSheHer

Well, they sent a meeting request to the virus on outlook, but it hasn’t got back to them yet.
Exactly! How can anyone possibly assign an "end date" to the spread of a virus ?
DuchessofHastings1 · 12/01/2021 14:31

Billie18

If that's the case, the date could potentially have been months ago.
80,0000 deaths with Covid, not necessarily because of Covid. 9 in 10 Covid deaths are people with underlying health conditions. Who knows how many actually have died because of Covid, not because they tested positive for it.

If we actually had clear reliable statistics, the actual Covid deaths could be a lot less than being reported.
Coupled with the deaths from people who are unable to get cancer treatments, serious operations or GP appointments so serious conditions can't be identified, suicides...it could be very likely that more people dying through the adverse effects of the lockdowns rather than Covid itself.

ceeveebee · 12/01/2021 14:33

They kind of have - they said they aim to vaccinate the top 4 groups by mid Feb, then 2-3 weeks later they plan to start lifting restrictions. By April they aim to have vaccinated the remaining priority groups.

If it helps you to know that the legislation governing the lockdown has an end date of 31 March and then needs to be voted back in again

However, as other posters have said it may be less stressful to not have a big expectations as dates slip and situations change. There is a story about vietnamese POW which the Stockdale paradox is based on, and this tells us that those people who confront the brutal reality of a situation are move likely to thrive than those who hold an optimistic view that they are pinning their hopes on:

Collins told the story of Admiral James Stockdale who was a POW during the Vietnam War. Collins notes, “It just seemed so bleak—the uncertainty of his fate, the brutality of his captors, and so forth…how on earth did he deal with it…?”

When Collins asked that very question directly to Stockdale, he replied, “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

Collins followed with another question: “Who didn’t make it out?”

“The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart….

This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose —with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

PastMyBestBeforeDate · 12/01/2021 14:36

@Annabellesdad yes I know that but if the vulnerable have no immunity to a new variant then we're going to back to shielding and a new vaccine roll out etc.

Parker231 · 12/01/2021 14:37

The top four groups will have only had one vaccine by mid February. They won’t be fully protected until they have the remaining vaccine 12 weeks later - mid May

FionatheCat · 12/01/2021 14:38

Too many variables
For a start we need to see that the vaccine is actually working to reduce severe illness
It may/may not prevent transmission
Another new variant may emerge
You just can’t put a time limit on all this

unebaguettepastropcuite · 12/01/2021 14:39

Belgium has provided a provisional calendar (for Belgium obviously) which shows vaccinations for the last group of people beginning in June

ILookAtTheFloor · 12/01/2021 14:39

The fact is that the public is already getting weary. We see it everywhere.

The gov cried wolf too often and it's biting them on the bum now. We should've opened up more during the summer when incidence was so low. Then we'd have more resilience in the bank (morale-wise, not cash wise, that's giving me a panic attack on another day in the future lol!)

HelloThereMeHearties · 12/01/2021 14:41

Everyone over 50 will have been vaccinated by May.

But I'm sure that's not good enough for you. Such a bore, the fact that pandemics and people don't behave as you demand they do!

TierFourTears · 12/01/2021 14:43

@MotheringShites I cant talk about vaccine production, but I did used to take one product, and try to make exactly the same on another factory. It was years of work and testing to achieve it - and I could still generally tell the difference between the two items, even though they would be sold as identical.

unebaguettepastropcuite · 12/01/2021 14:45

Belgium's vaccination previsions (in French) for anyone who is interested: www.info-coronavirus.be/fr/vaccination/#strategie
I guess the timetable will be similar in the UK as long as there are no problems with supply

Annabellesdad · 12/01/2021 14:46

[quote PastMyBestBeforeDate]@Annabellesdad yes I know that but if the vulnerable have no immunity to a new variant then we're going to back to shielding and a new vaccine roll out etc.[/quote]
I understand what you are saying, I was just saying it would'nt take as long, as effectively it would be the same vaccine, just with the new strains protein spike added.

Sorry if it came across a bit mansplainy, not my intention at all!

Shamefulcorners · 12/01/2021 14:47

I understand what your saying OP. They have to give us something to keep us going.
Even if they said when all the over 60s are vaccinated, we can drop down to Tier 2. Etc.
It will keep compliance and spirits up.
When theres no end in sight, mental health rates will go up and they will just flaunt the rules.

I hear what you say about compliance ; using the "carrot" of an end date instead of the "stick" of punitive measures. But the problem I reckon is that a virus is too unpredictable (and UK healthcare system too fragile) to be able to judge this accurately (possible mutations, staff shortages and delays in delivering vaccine etc) and then people are given false hope , which leads to more lack of trust, which leads to more non-compliance.

The more you give people false hope, the more trust is diminished, so I actually think it would be better to go the whole hog and say restrictions will still be in place up to end December 2021 with possible temporary staggered easing of them during two months in the summer or some such, as it's far better to under promise and over deliver than vice versa. But I'm a natural pessimist and sadly I really do think it's going to take all the rest of this year at least to get properly shot of this thing, if we ever do! Especially as globally, the world is going to be recovering at different rates.

CremeEggThief · 12/01/2021 14:48

It doesn't matter who is getting weary. Surely we're all weary by this stage? Apart from DS, I haven't had a hug or any physical contact with anyone probably since last February now.

We still have to do the best we can to follow the rules and try to make it as safe as possible for everyone, horrible and depressing and joyless and thankless as it is.
Life is about survival and endurance right now for everyone.

WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants · 12/01/2021 14:48

Why don't people at least TRY to educate themselves before asking such daft questions?

It's no wonder we're in this position.

Nootkah · 12/01/2021 14:49

Because there's too many unknowns. We dont know that the vaccine supply chain can deliver until it has delivered (cant count chickens before theyre hatched and all that). We dont know whatvis going to haooen with new strains of this virus. Just before Christmas we were starting to regain some normality, we had a vaccine and WHAM new more infectious variant comes a knocking and we're where we are now. No one can predict how this is going to pan out.

DianaT1969 · 12/01/2021 14:52

OP, if I tell you the freedom date is April 2nd, does that help?
You already think this is linear. So if a new mutation pops up which doesn't respond well to treatment, or a manufacturer of vaccines is hit by an outbreak at their laboratory and has to cease production, that won't matter because it's linear and you've been given a date.

YakkityYakYakYak · 12/01/2021 14:52

Totally agree with you OP. I want to know what the plan is. I don’t expect a set date for lifting restrictions but think we should know whether they are planning to lift restrictions when the most vulnerable are vaccinated, or when everyone is vaccinated, or something in between. I have no sense of where on that spectrum the governments plan is, or whether they have even thought about it. I’m not willing to keep blindly following restrictions with no thought for what comes next. I can’t live like that.

CremeEggThief · 12/01/2021 14:54

To be fair though, @Nootkah, the new strain was known about by the government since late September.It didn't just come out of nowhere before Christmas. If they had followed scientific advice, we probably wouldn't be in as bad a state as we are in now.

unebaguettepastropcuite · 12/01/2021 14:55

@YakkityYakYakYak

Totally agree with you OP. I want to know what the plan is. I don’t expect a set date for lifting restrictions but think we should know whether they are planning to lift restrictions when the most vulnerable are vaccinated, or when everyone is vaccinated, or something in between. I have no sense of where on that spectrum the governments plan is, or whether they have even thought about it. I’m not willing to keep blindly following restrictions with no thought for what comes next. I can’t live like that.
That's not a question they have enough data to answer right now. Not enough is known about the protection the vaccination provides. Once that becomes clearer, I expecct answers will start to be provided
HelloThereMeHearties · 12/01/2021 14:59

This attitude astounds me. Do you actually think that if the Government could give us a concrete "end date", they wouldn't?!!!

Robbybobtail · 12/01/2021 15:00

Because they have to cover their arses. Can you imagine the uproar if they gave a date or even month, and then things didnt go as expected.

This is why things have been very, very vague throughout. They probably knew more or less how this was going to play out but if at the start they had said "look, this is going to last at least a year, possibly longer and there will be a series of lockdowns and restrictions. Also there will probably be a vaccine at some point but we will just have to wait and see how effective it is" how would that have gone down!?

Parker231 · 12/01/2021 15:00

Found this which sets out the process before lockdown and restrictions could be reduced

Test one: Making sure the NHS can cope

Test two: A 'sustained and consistent' fall in the daily death rate

Test three: Rate of infection decreasing to 'manageable levels'

Fourth test: Ensuring supply of tests and PPE can meet future demand

Fifth test: Being confident any adjustments would not risk a further peak that would overwhelm the NHS

Lily7050 · 12/01/2021 15:04

@Billie18

Vaccinations being rolled out and there will be a date when the elderly and/or vulnerable will have been vaccinated. It should be possible to announce a date now when this will have happened. On this date all restrictions should be lifted. Why has no date been given?
@Billie18: vaccinations of elderly and/or vulnerable will not stop the spread www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/giving-covid-vaccine-elderly-little-23292047
halfeatenhamper · 12/01/2021 15:09

There isn't a date because it is impossible to be specific when you are fighting an invisible enemy that keeps moving the goal posts.