F**k me

[notevenat20]

In case anyone was doubting that we should stay home, take a look at www.covidmessenger.com/. The columns to compare is the one third from the right which is the most recent week and the one second from the right, which is the week before.

Oh shit.

I don't know how useful it is to compare this pandemic to one a hundreds ago. It's clearly a fucking disaster however you slice it.

we should or can learn from it, if we wish

I booked my haircut before xmas as I was under the impression it was safer to mix with a hairdresser before xmas rather than afterwards when everyones been mixing and its more dangerous

well the figure have tripled and quadrupled since xmas week so it was of course safer

we just look at the waves of the virus - flu is a virus like covid19 is a virus so they will have similar patterns

Australia made the boats sailing in quarantine 100 years ago so that the people with illness didn't come ashore and infect the natives, they have shut there boarders again and saved many lives in doing so

history repeating itself

@mrshoho

An individual's posting history is available to search. I'm not stalking, I'm just amused and a little surprised at the change in attitude.

Nah this is creepy for sure.

I think it is all because of the mutation.

Yes, I thought you might. It's a remarkable co-incidence that the predictions which were made to you about what would happen if (amongst other things) schools were fully opened without sufficient preparations have come true but it's not because you were wrong.

@notevenat20

But this isn't all because of the mutation

I think it is all because of the mutation. At the end of the November lockdown the numbers started going up again even though we were still in lockdown. That seems to be entirely because of b117. This also means that we can't use any of the tier systems we had before.

Because in that lockdown 8 million odd school schildren were forced into classrooms without adequate distancing or masks. The virus kept spreading in the school community and in turn our homes and wider community.

@m0therofdragons

Who’s publishing those numbers as it’s not phe or government website and isn’t right for my area.

Do you mean the COVID messenger numbers? They’re Government data, five day rolling averages, backdated to last day with most of the data available. @littleowl1 can give you the detail, she compiled them.

Nah this is creepy for sure.

I purposefully avoided most of the teacher bashing but even I remember OP's prolific posting- no searching needed.

I can't see how the pattern of case numbers going down for 3/4 of the month and then going up can be explained by schools being open the whole time. The govt is course it was b117 too, I didn't make it up.

is clear

I think the point is that by lowering the spread, you lower the chances of mutations. If we had been more careful about spread in schools this mutation might never have happened, or might not have spread beyond a certain locale. What we did was provide perfect breading grounds for mutations. We knew kids were largely asymptomatic, rather than immune.

I don't mind admitting that I'm scared.

We really need to take this seriously and yet still people are minimising and looking for loopholes.

I don't mind admitting that I'm scared.

Me too.

The govt is course it was b117 too, I didn't make it up.

No, you said I think it is all because of the mutation.. My point is that that is not the case. The rise was always going to occur because of the failings over summer and autumn, only the pace has changed.

They went down because of half term. Then in true exponential transmission fashion took a little while to pick up in schools again.
Partly variant, partly schools.

@notevenat20

In case anyone was doubting that we should stay home, take a look at www.covidmessenger.com/. The columns to compare is the one third from the right which is the most recent week and the one second from the right, which is the week before.

Oh shit.

I agree with you, OP. People, generally, know rates are rising but not the extent of it. I found the link very useful.

@donquixotedelamancha

Nah this is creepy for sure.

I purposefully avoided most of the teacher bashing but even I remember OP's prolific posting- no searching needed.

I'm referencing searching through an individual's search history. That's a proper weirdo thing to do.

I don't mind admitting that I'm scared.

Me too.

We all are (well anyone paying attention). I think all myself and PPs are saying is that perhaps you might take the opportunity to realise that you were very strident with teachers who were scared in September and maybe you were wrong.

It will be OK. We will be locked down for some time and more economic and social damage will be done. More people will have died than necessary but the vaccine and summer together will accelerate the speed at which deaths decline compared to the last peak.

I'm more angry than scared now. I want this useless governement gone and to make sure things are as normal as possible next winter.

*I'm referencing searching through an individual's search history. That's a proper weirdo thing to do.

Yeah, I know. I'm just pointing out that I think most people are going off memory.

@wonderup

Why is it so bad in places like Kent & Essex?

They are both extremely overcrowded with no end in sight to all the house and flat building being squeezed into places you wouldn't have imagined they could possibly fit. I think the plan is to make them an extension of London.

@MarshaBradyo We are sat in the middle of the country (UK) and are surrounded by a sea of terrifying purple!

Laughable really as we were in the highest tier before the last lockdown and were being slated as ignorant northerners when the numbers in the South were relatively low. I can say this as I am from London originally

So this is despite kids being at home for over 3 weeks and a lockdown?

7 day rolling average per million people:

Average age morbidity and average age hospitalisation or ICU are not the same. Average age and mean age in ICU is around 60 in London (range around 55 to 75). Around 30% survival but survivors needing long term care.

Maybe higher age morbidity is because there is no treatment (officially) and only those likely to survive get hospitalised or referred to ICU?

@donquixotedelamancha

I don't mind admitting that I'm scared.

Me too.

We all are (well anyone paying attention). I think all myself and PPs are saying is that perhaps you might take the opportunity to realise that you were very strident with teachers who were scared in September and maybe you were wrong.

It will be OK. We will be locked down for some time and more economic and social damage will be done. More people will have died than necessary but the vaccine and summer together will accelerate the speed at which deaths decline compared to the last peak.

I'm more angry than scared now. I want this useless governement gone and to make sure things are as normal as possible next winter.

On the contrary, people aren't scared enough, hence, the non-compliance and going out, meeting up with folks. Even those watching the news--the message isn't reaching a lot due to distrust of govt, inconsistency in messages (amongst other things). Plus the media outlets aren't showing enough of the real impact of this.

@amusedtodeath1

I think the point is that by lowering the spread, you lower the chances of mutations. If we had been more careful about spread in schools this mutation might never have happened, or might not have spread beyond a certain locale. What we did was provide perfect breading grounds for mutations. We knew kids were largely asymptomatic, rather than immune.

I don't mind admitting that I'm scared.

We really need to take this seriously and yet still people are minimising and looking for loopholes.

This with big clanging bells on.

If you're not scared, you're not paying enough attention FFS.

I have friends who work in our local hospital on Covid wards.
They are broken.
And it's not even the peak yet!