F**k me

[notevenat20]

In case anyone was doubting that we should stay home, take a look at www.covidmessenger.com/. The columns to compare is the one third from the right which is the most recent week and the one second from the right, which is the week before.

Oh shit.

I just can't understand this stalky behaviour. You are referring to the right thing to do on 1 September as if that somehow tells us what to do now.

Because the choices made in September, and even back in April lead to the voices we have now.

If the teaching profession had been listened to over the summer, some of this year's disruption could have been mitigated.

You were still minimising in November and December. Remember your mantra?

I have no idea what you are talking about but I would have blocked you if I could. Please don't address me any more. It's just harassment.

@notevenat20

No. The dim thing is not to have expected to be where we are now from what we did in September

That is an amazing scientific claim. Are you really saying that schools opening in September in the UK caused the b117 variant?

Just look at the stats. School kids went from having almost the lowest infection rates (due to KW only provision, then limited numbers - my kids school did rotas with all years back in the summer, and it worked really well) - to having the highest rates. That proves rampant transmission in schools - unsurprisingly due to it being crowded indoor poorly ventilated spaces with no masks with long duration of exposure.. This has contributed to the spread of the variant - all those teachers saying their schools were suddenly hammered - 50% staff infected over a half term - yet we were only allowed to send close contacts home after half term, not the teachers or classmates.

Bonkers. Absolutely asking for any more serious variant to pick up more mutations and spread further.

I'm not surprised. There's going to be a couple more weeks of this yet, the Xmas period, new year and 1 day school opening will make it worse for some time yet.

Let's be fair, it can take quite some time to really get your head around data trends, and lots of people still haven't fully realised the effect of the new strain over the old one, even now.

However, the data about it's increased transmission has been around for several weeks now, and lots of us have been trying to get this point across for several weeks as well.

Personally, I don't get too wound up by the stats.

I believe Covid was with us since probably Sept 2019.

The line on the graph shot up because it was impossible to get tested until very recently; and because of the way the figures were reported.

And now loads of asymptomatic cases are being unearthed with mass testing.

I do not underestimate how awful Covid can be for some people, but for the vast majority of us, it will be no worse than a heavy cold, and yes, I do appreciate that it isn't clear who will get a touch of a cold, and who will get long Covid, hence I support restrictions.

"The timing of these stats seems to show that it was the Christmas festivities that put the numbers up, yet on mumsnet you’d think the only source of spread was schools. Yet again, kids are paying the price of adults doing what the hellwant. It’s just wrong"

There is lots of evidence that schools were a significant source of infection. When they are open. Even Matt Hancock used school infection rates to justify tier 4.

Ons showed surveys showed covid spreading in schools for months but there are plenty of threads showing infection rates in school kids drops every school holiday even if kids still mingle.

There were plenty of threads saying Christmas mingling was a bad idea and of course kids aren't to blame for this. The government decided to allow community spread in schools amd this decision means that Christmas numbers coupled with b117 spreading in schools like Greenwich have made the problem worse.

@Bagamoyo1

The timing of these stats seems to show that it was the Christmas festivities that put the numbers up, yet on mumsnet you’d think the only source of spread was schools. Yet again, kids are paying the price of adults doing what the hell they want. It’s just wrong.

maybe it was both?

#follow the science

Thanks, op for posting the link. Can't believe there are objections to people posting facts. Perhaps those posters should stick to other topics that don't scare them rather than wanting to stop other people discussing the reality.

Someone upthread was talking about the age of people in the ICU beds. The statistics indeed show that there aren’t many 80+. I know why I think this is - and it isn’t because they don’t need critical care.

@Notevenat20
What I don't do is take things you wrote about what should happen in September and suggest that must be what I think should happen now. That is a dim thing to do at best. The right thing to do in September in 2020 is not the right thing to do now.

The right thing to do in September was to take extreme precautions that this current situation wouldn't happen. It wasn't like the Science wasn't already identifying this likelihood. As early as October, Independent SAGE were very concerned. If you would like to add further to your awakening to the facts, I suggest you read this and note its date.
www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Safe-schools-v4b1.pdf

Of course it isn't just down to schools but it is down to the chains of transmission exacerbated by multiple families coming into daily contact with virus carriers e.g. children.

There was no adequate safety measure that could mitigate against that, other than allowing reduced numbers in schools. Had we been allowed to have fewer children on a rota basis, the chances are that education would have been disrupted in the long term far less than it has been now. Don't get me wrong - it would have still spread and mutated, but it probably would have bought us some time.

So I'm not surprised by these figures and I doubt there would be a teacher anywhere who would be either.

@wonderup

This is the Xmas effect

I agree

Many areas didn’t mix for Christmas!! Our county wasn’t allowed to mix, nobody I know saw anyone outside their households at all over Christmas. Our schools and essential shops have been shut for over 3 weeks, yet we still have a big increase. It’s not just about Xmas

I love how people think quoting actual statistics is fearmongering. No doubt there will be an accusation of hysteria.

When figures are rising at such an exponential level, perhaps a little fear is what is needed. People had become complacent, and are fed up of lockdown. They keep saying they can make their own risk assessment, but in order to do that, they need to know actual statistics. We are in a situation where you are far more likely to catch and spread Covid doing the things you could previously do without a problem. We are also in a situation where the increase in numbers make it more likely deaths will rise, and that hospitals are becoming overwhelmed meaning that the death rate from Covid (and other things) will rise. None of this is fearmongering, it is what is actually happening right now.

If that’s what people want because they can’t face being locked down for a few more weeks, then go right ahead, ignore the fact you have a responsibility to try and get these numbers down. Just don’t expect a bed to be there for you or your family if you get sick or in an accident.

Bloody hell. Where I live is one of the worst and I didn't even know. Back to washing shopping it is 🤣

@FalseAlarm1

Someone upthread was talking about the age of people in the ICU beds. The statistics indeed show that there aren’t many 80+. I know why I think this is - and it isn’t because they don’t need critical care.

It's because they now have to choose between treating our husbands and our dads, and they just make our grandads "comfortable" if they admit them at all.

I watch the Covidmessenger daily and have been watching my home town go from 425/100k to 1227/100k in a very short period. We went from Tier 2 to Tier 4 on Boxing day and at that time we were position 90 we are now the 20th worst affected town in the UK. We have stayed at position 20 for the last 3 days but I fear it is just because it hasnt been updated recently.

I havent changed my behaviour because I didnt go out before and I am still not going out now. I am concerned for people who have no choice though, like my DD who works in a nursery, and my eldest DS who is an engineer and has to go out to various banks in the South East to fix their cash machines, and my other DS, fiance who is an Occuaptional Therapist who regularly has to go into patients homes. My DS was ECV though and had his vaccination on 30th December so I feel a little bit of relief in that respect.

We can only do what we do.

@Littlewhitedove2 it will be the new strain plus Xmas combined. Don’t kid yourself that just because there are rules (and many were still in tier 2 anyway) people followed them.

The average age in hospital is 60

@namechangefail2020

Bloody hell. Where I live is one of the worst and I didn't even know. Back to washing shopping it is 🤣

At least you're now informed and can use this newfound knowledge to make good choices regard to staying at home. And you can now inform others who are complacent about the pandemic and hopefully help to shape their behaviour.

@Jenasaurus I think I know where you are, I have family there so I've been watching the figures climb daily too.

The figures are concerning but dont forget that comparing short term changes in reported figures to determine rate of change is error prone. Sometimes figures may be reported in a more timely fashion than at others, similarly more testing may be processed during some periods than others. Both can distort growth rates.

@Eng123

The figures are concerning but dont forget that comparing short term changes in reported figures to determine rate of change is error prone. Sometimes figures may be reported in a more timely fashion than at others, similarly more testing may be processed during some periods than others. Both can distort growth rates.

The ONS random sampling gets around this.

Well it was entirely expected and predictable. The England Christmas rules were madness and are the direct cause of the surge in Covid cases. Yes it is boosted by the new variant being more transmissible but they knew about it before Christmas and went ahead anyway.

@CountessFrog

Didn’t you already know this? It’s been on the news.

Your post is fear mongering. We’ve all stocked up on that already, thanks.

If the public think publishing statistics is fear mongering it maybe part of the reason we are where we are?

We can't just stick our fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening.

This shit is, unfortunately, real.

This shit is, unfortunately, real.

Some people are still stuck in normalcy bias.