F**k me

[notevenat20]

In case anyone was doubting that we should stay home, take a look at www.covidmessenger.com/. The columns to compare is the one third from the right which is the most recent week and the one second from the right, which is the week before.

Oh shit.

I also think Christmas effect would have had hit for some. 19/12 was the London ban, it's anecdotal but lots of people had a) already left of b) went anyway. I'm a Londoner as is DH & most of our friends. The nice thing about the xmas break is that it empties out & parking is amazing! Exactly the same for us this year with streets of car parking spaces.

The death rate for my age group (nearly 50) doesn't particularly worry me. The 10% long Covid, chance of permanent organ damage, and the overwhelming of the NHS due to sheer numbers is though.
But people like the op have dismissed this for months

we are ranked 287th so we must be doing something right.

And for FFS stop going on, people, about the bloody death rate, and the age groups affected.

Its about people getting sick and needing hospitalisation and ICU. Its about YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES REGARDLESS OF AGE not being treated for car accidents, cancer, appendicitis, pancreatitis and a hundred other conditions in an appropriate and timely fashion.

Doctors now saying that if you are young and non-vulnerable and do not qualify for the vaccine you should stay at home until you have had the vaccine.
Prof. Jeremy Brown of UCH and the JCVI just said on LBC that half of the patients in his critical care department are in groups that do not qualify for the vaccination!
Maybe the priority list needs reexamining?

@Haggertyjane

we are ranked 287th so we must be doing something right.

And for FFS stop going on, people, about the bloody death rate, and the age groups affected.

Its about people getting sick and needing hospitalisation and ICU. Its about YOU AND YOUR LOVED ONES REGARDLESS OF AGE not being treated for car accidents, cancer, appendicitis, pancreatitis and a hundred other conditions in an appropriate and timely fashion.

Where are you in the country? It’s likely to be distance from new variant

Devon does seem to be the safest place to be right now....

@Pipandmum

Yes its shocking yet there are still so many people out! I had a hospital appointment Friday and the roads were almost at normal levels - I don't get where they are going. I dropped by the super Tesco on the way back and it was surprisingly empty.

Yeah my OH a Truck driver said the roads were nigh on the same as they have been previously. He said there's far more cars and people milling about than there was during the first lockdown. The only difference I've noticed and that'll only be because it chuffing freezing is that every Tom dick and Harry from god knows where haven't flocked down onto the beach where I live. First lock down that place was busier than a normal bank holiday with barely any sand in between people. I didn't go down but saw it every time I drove home

we are ranked 287th so we must be doing something right.

You don't have the population count of Bristol though do you, which is far far higher and geographically would have been in your stats if boundaries hadn't changed

Whatever, Boris. Next the prime minister will be telling us there are weapons of mass destruction. Oh, wait...

Next slide, please.

@benedicto

Doctors now saying that if you are young and non-vulnerable and do not qualify for the vaccine you should stay at home until you have had the vaccine. Prof. Jeremy Brown of UCH and the JCVI just said on LBC that half of the patients in his critical care department are in groups that do not qualify for the vaccination! Maybe the priority list needs reexamining?

It's frightening. There are workers and parents at nurseries and schools who cannot stay home if/when schools reopen fully.

I am scared for the working population/those with caring responsibilities who won't get the vaccine and who simply cannot stay home.

We understood - when there were calls to protect the vulnerable by keeping them shielded - that the vulnerable do not live in a bubble and were exposed to others. Its the same now for other groups.

@redfairylights

I wish people would stop quoting the death rate as a reason for not worrying about it.

Quite frankly, the problem for the NHS is not the 85 year olds that get it and die relatively quickly - it is the 45-65 year olds that require hospital admission and potentially an ICU bed for several weeks in order to recover.

A very small percentage (hospital admissions), of a very big number will still overwhelm the NHS regardless of survival statistics.

data.spectator.co.uk/city/nhs

Look at NHS England bad occupancy: COVID-19 beds are small portion in the total beds occupied.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

It is nowhere like Spanish flu.

Spanish flu killed 50mil worldwide, this one has killed 2mil, so far. In the UK we've already lost more than 1/3 of the total killed during the Spanish flu.

The differences between the two are quantitative- Europe isn't malnourished after a long war, we have better medicine and have developed a vaccine quickly, so fewer will die.

As a pathogen, Covid is certainly at least as dangerous as Spanish flu.

@Lily7050

These are just cases. Majority of people will experience it as a minor illness. Death rate for over 85 years old is 5% and for over 65 years old is just 1%. It is nowhere like Spanish flu.

I really don't understand why people are still coming out with such uninformed nonsense.

Even if only 50 all need admitting to one hospital in one week, if there is only enough beds and staff to nurse these patients then where the fuck do the strokes/ cardiac arrests/ accidents/ insert illness or injury of choice go to be treated?

Please tell me WHERE the people who don't have Covid will be treated? WHERE?

@notevenat20 - another teacher here who recognises your name from the seventy billion posts you've made about how safe schools are. Not stalkery - you just post that much. I'm sure you recognise some of our names, too.

notevenat20 - another teacher here who recognises your name from the seventy billion posts you've made about how safe schools are. Not stalkery - you just post that much. I'm sure you recognise some of our names, too.

I do sometimes recognise names. What I don't do is take things you wrote about what should happen in September and suggest that must be what I think should happen now. That is a dim thing to do at best. The right thing to do in September in 2020 is not the right thing to do now.

No. The dim thing is not to have expected to be where we are now from what we did in September

No. The dim thing is not to have expected to be where we are now from what we did in September

That is an amazing scientific claim. Are you really saying that schools opening in September in the UK caused the b117 variant?

@Nellodee I don't know if there is any way to count the number of posts per person. It might be fun to try.

[quote AutumnVibes]That website is a bit messy. I’m not sure why it has multiple entries for ‘London’ or ‘Lancashire’ for example, so not so easy to make sense of the figures. This website is very helpful and a bit more precise: www.trafforddatalab.io/covid19.html[/quote]
It’s by council. London and Lancashire have multiple councils. Personally I find it most useful seeing statistics for my local area than a generic London one.

Doesn't that Spectator dashboard show that the only way hospitals in London, the South Wast and the East of Wngland are keeping up with the demand for critical care beds is by making new critical care beds? There are more occupied critical care beds in the East on 3 Jan than there were total beds on 20 Dec. That's a steep ramping up in a short period. What would staffing look like?

Schools being open led to more cases, which increased the number of mutations, making it statistically more likely that we got a variant like the one we did.

There's no saying the mutation arose due to a transmission that occurred in school, just like you can't say that any specific hurricane is caused by global warming. But you'd be hard pushed to say it definitely -wasn't- caused by it, either.

The timing of these stats seems to show that it was the Christmas festivities that put the numbers up, yet on mumsnet you’d think the only source of spread was schools. Yet again, kids are paying the price of adults doing what the hell they want. It’s just wrong.

And why are you talking about your views from September @notevenat20? You were still minimising in November and December. Remember your mantra?

It's perfectly possible b117 didn't originate in the UK at all of course.

@Lily7050
The NHS runs at about 95% bed occupancy in a normal winter. Which is higher than optimal for efficiency (optimal is around 85%, according to NICE, see link below). So even a 5% increase takes it to the point where ambulances are queuing hours to unload, people are on trolleys in corridors etc. Covid is leading to a much higher increase than that.

Here’s a link to the data on bed occupancy, note that (due to needing to separate covid and non covid cases), in general hospitals will experience capacity pressures at lower overall occupancy rates than would previously have been the case.
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/

Link to NICE on optimal bed occupancy:
www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng94/evidence/39.bed-occupancy-pdf-172397464704