Long term covid restrictions

[MummaBear4321]

I was eating bbc breakfast this morning and they interviewed an epidemiologist who stated very clearly that the vaccinations are not at all a solution to this virus, and that they will do 'nothing to stem the spread and hospital admission rates' and that the 'majority of people will not be protected from infection and its devastating effects'. She said we need 'long term policies that aim to reduce transmission'. She specifically mentioned quarantines at borders and mitigation of spread in schools long term.

I am usually a relative positive person, I dont freak easily, but am I right in saying she thinks, as an expert, that we need to live under social distancing, remote leaning, and for those of us whose family live abroad, not seeing our family for the foreseeable future? She is starting if regulations to allow us to see people are relaxed will be in this never ending cycle of transmission and death ......

Perky way to start a Sunday morning. Someone please tell me she is just being dramatic, or at the very least she isnt considering the public backlash and that eventually the government will have to give us some hope at seeing the people we love. We cant live under these restrictions forever surely.

I suspect her comments have been taken out of context or misconstrued.

Once vaccinated even with the first dose there is evidence you won't become ill from the virus.

What they don't know yet is how long the vaccine lasts or if it reduces transmission but Chris Witty is optimistic that it will reduce transmission which means these measures can relax.

But he said that in times like mid winter when hospitals are full of flu cases we will also have to be mindful of this virus and possibly step up measures to protect the nhs at those times.

So it won't be a case this virus vanishes and we can forget it but it will be controlled enough to get back to most activities apart from key pressures times in the nhs.

That was my understanding.

Making a name for herself. Knows it's going to make all the headlines. Irresponsible. I hope they provided an opposing voice for balance, as I'm sure many scientists Including Whitty would disagree.

Thats what I thought too @lovelemoncurd. I even went back and looked at the interview again on bbc iplayer and paid serious attention to what she was saying. She was incredibly clear. There was no way she could be misunderstood or taken out of context. I typed what she said word for word. But I thought the entire point of the vaccine was that it reduces the impact of the virus on the person, therefore reducing the need for hospitalisations and chance of death, and if you get a large % of the population vaccinated then that will mean there is reduced need for policies to reduce transmission. I understand transmission will still happen, but the danger reduces, and the pressure on the NHS reduces. She shocked me tbh. She was so clear in her belief that the vaccine wont stop things being bad and we need long term policies to reduce transmission, so SD and not seeing people. She was very doom and gloom. Her interview is on BBC iplayer if you want to take look.

And at some point herd immunity will be reached, one way or another. Even if people could be re infected at some point, covid will become another endemic coronavirus that we live with.

OP.

All pandemics end, look at history. And vaccination programs work - again look at history.

This nasty, irresponsible woman sounds like she was chasing fame, like Nurse Laura Duffel last week, who claimed the wards were full of children.

I'd advise against watching the BBC if you want to avoid false news, they are little more than a Boris mouthpiece these days.

Even some epidemiologists are crackpots. Just because they hold a doctorate doesn't mean they don't hold extreme and discordant views. She's probably lining her next article or book up and this is all publicity.

Ignore. Look to history and look to the historical effectiveness of vaccines.

Is she Neil Fergusson's lockdown girlfriend?

It's idiots like this that will make people not bother to have the vaccine, why would you if it doesn't make much difference

I have t see. It. Was it Devi Sridhar? I follow her on Twitter. If so she means things like quarantine, testing and contact tracing. I don’t think she means we will be social distancing with everything shut forever.

People won’t follow these restrictions for ever. I’ll still follow ones on public but once my family and I are all vaccinated I’ll be back seeing them as normal. I doubt I will be the only one

@MadameBlobby no her name was Dr Deepti Gurdasani.

Having tests at borders to prevent diseases being imported or exported for a period post vaccination rollout seems sensible to me. Face coverings in certain situations where transmission of illnesses is most likely- a winter without flu or other illnesses spreading would be a respite for the NHS.

If some measures at schools such as designated entry points help reduce spread of all illnesses then good.

The level of restrictions even under tier 2 long term I agree would not be accepted and I am certain will not happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/10/now-we-have-the-coronavirus-vaccine-how-soon-can-we-get-back-to-normal-life?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

There will be some measures for a decent amount of time yet. But that doesn't mean it will be like now.

I had imagined the vaccine programme probably will be a bit like painting the Forth Bridge, so at any given time a significant chunk of people will be vulnerable again?

I understand it wont fix things, and there will probably always be a section who are vulnerable as the vaccine wears off and needs another dose, and I am ok with living under some restrictions for even the next year, but with my parents abroad I need some hope that they can be in my DDs lives again in the future. They have just been faces on screens since last march. They cant be that for the long term surely (long term being beyond this year).

@MummaBear4321 thanks, I’ll take a look. Someone on here explained that even when the most vulnerable are vaccinated that the virus will then just rip through the unvaccinated population meaning it’s them who will get ill and overload hospitals in large numbers, makes sense then to have some longer term management in place. It won’t be like it is now. Hopefully once we get everyone vaccinated not just the vulnerable and then everyone just goes for a top up every year or two like we do with our flu jabs then things will settle a lot more. Some of the restrictions I really don’t think are a bad idea ie having to isolate with symptoms, there’s been too much for too long of sick people soldiering into work when plainly unwell even before Covid spreading germs everywhere. Should be combined with proper pay and protection from dismissal but I doubt it will.

I also saw this broadcast and I’m also a specialist. I think what she was trying to emphasise is that we need to implement a stricter lockdown now to try and nip it in the bud- like other countries such as NZ have managed rather than relying on vaccination and relaxed distancing measures to keep it in check but not actually manage to stop it.

The vaccination stops you from getting sick, it doesn’t stop you getting covid, so they aren’t clear whether you’ll still be able to pass it on. That’s the issue as I understand it.
as if you can still pass it on, then anyone not vaccinated is still at risk.
And then there’s the concern that a new vaccine will be needed every year etc like flu, so again, massive vaccination programme required, during which anyone not vaccinated could possibly still be at risk from those vaccinated.

@Zippy1510 but she never mentioned anything about the current lockdown. She only talked about the long term and the effects (or lack thereof) of a vaccine. I would have expected her to say we need a strong lockdown now, but that wasnt the focus of the interview at all. As a specialist, do you agree that restrictions in schools and quarantine (which effectively makes travel near impossible) need to be long term policies?

She did mention that other counties have managed to stop it though and highlighted this was something we need to do. She mentioned it right at the end. These counties have managed this via harsher lockdowns
and restrictions. I think that our current measures won’t be enough to reduce our rates enough to go back to normal- but I also think the government realise this and we are going to end up in various cycles of lifting and tightening restrictions likely for the rest of the year.

[[https://www.qmul.ac.uk/whri/people/academic-staff/items/gurdasanideepti.html Seems like nearly all of Dr Deepti Gurdasani's previous publications are in genomics, not actually an infectious disease spread expert.

Just saying she may not have a balanced view on over all human well-being. Or even epidemiology.

I watched the interview and it was so depressing. Looks like life will never be back to normal if we're going to have never ending restrictions to control the virus. What's the point in being alive if this is the way of life from now on?

She’s a clinical epidemiologist and geneticist with a PhD from Cambridge who works with Sanger....She knows substantially more than most. I’m a senior lecturer in microbiology and I would say her knowledge of predicted transmission patterns surpasses mine. Her opinions are also not rare within the scientific community.

@MadameBlobby but hospital admissions are massively biased to the over 60’s and clinically extremely vulnerable- so people not in the category are much, much less likely to need hospital admissions hence the pressure on hospitals will be relived. Having said that, impact on the workforce being off self-isolating/ill, and also how high the prevalence of long, long covid ( if you know what I mean) could cause significant issues.

Right.... so basically she isnt being dramatic, her opinions are scientific and in fact correct, and we are all deluded to think we will ever be able to do things like travel on a plane to visit parents or have a birthday party take my kids to a panto ..... great. Just great.

Genuine thanks to you @Zippy1510. I appreciate an educated bit of truth.