Long term covid restrictions

[MummaBear4321]

I was eating bbc breakfast this morning and they interviewed an epidemiologist who stated very clearly that the vaccinations are not at all a solution to this virus, and that they will do 'nothing to stem the spread and hospital admission rates' and that the 'majority of people will not be protected from infection and its devastating effects'. She said we need 'long term policies that aim to reduce transmission'. She specifically mentioned quarantines at borders and mitigation of spread in schools long term.

I am usually a relative positive person, I dont freak easily, but am I right in saying she thinks, as an expert, that we need to live under social distancing, remote leaning, and for those of us whose family live abroad, not seeing our family for the foreseeable future? She is starting if regulations to allow us to see people are relaxed will be in this never ending cycle of transmission and death ......

Perky way to start a Sunday morning. Someone please tell me she is just being dramatic, or at the very least she isnt considering the public backlash and that eventually the government will have to give us some hope at seeing the people we love. We cant live under these restrictions forever surely.

I can't see how schools can reopen normally for months or even years, since as soon as they do, cases will jump right up. My poor 5 year old daughter, what a miserable life.

Well she has her area of expertise. If you ask an epidemiologist how to stop an academic they are going to give an answer, they aren’t economists or mental health specialists for example. Politicians have to balance that advice with wider issues (which they do to varying degrees of success as I’m sure we can all see). She may be talking about ongoing restrictions in particular areas rather than ongoing bans on seeing family for years.

Of course I meant If you ask an epidemiologist how to stop an epidemic

I don’t necessarily think we will maintain this level of lockdown consistently because the government is seemingly trying to constantly juggle public health versus economic and educational benefit. I think it’ll be a case of continued efforts in vaccination followed by loosening restrictions, observing what happens and then tightening again when rates shoot up. Hopefully we reach a point where it’s determined that we have enough of the population vaccinated, the vulnerable are more protected and hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and rates aren’t sky rocketing every time we relax. But this all depends on a few things one of which is the impact of the vaccine on overall transmission, which we don’t really have enough data on yet to make any certain predictions and secondly is how long immunity from the vaccine lasts.

Good god. The refusal to face the truth of our situation is a big reason why we won't get out of it anytime soon. Besides all the other reasons why we need to try to eliminate the virus (which is possible as has been demonstrated elsewhere in the world) theres the fact that unmitigated transmission leads to an increasing adaptation of the virus. That's why we have this new more virulent strain; who knows what might happen with further adaptations?

Where is this refusal to face our situation?

@Sitt all these people upset at thought that we might have to actually do a proper lockdown to eliminate the virus. And if we don't that we will be in and out of this situation without end in sight. The reality of the situation is that we cannot just vaccinate old and clinically vulnerable people and then carry on life as normal.

I've just watched it and I don't think that's exactly what she was saying. She was more pointing out the vaccination strategy is too simplistic. There will still be so many unprotected people after the first 4 groups are vaccinated, that if we open up then, we can expect cases to soar. The unprotected people will be the ones still most out and about in society. Of these, there will still be some that get sick, possibly enough to overwhelm hospitals and lots of cases of long covid. So to prevent this, vaccination needs to go hand in hand with measures that really supress the virus, such as quarantine, changes in schools. She is pushing for a more complete supression strategy, like NZ, which also reduces the opportunity for further virus mutations, until such time as a whole population has been vaccinated and/ or the virus is at really low levels. It's logical- anyone who has been saying, once the over 80s have been vaccinated, I'm going to crack on- hasn't really understood the issue.

Don’t worry, I’m sure there are some people who want restrictions forever but most of us won’t be following any restrictions on seeing family and friends by spring even if there is any.

But that's the point! Nobody wants lockdown, we want our lives back. Like my friend in NZ who is currently having a lovely holiday in NZ with friends. But they had to do a hardcore lockdown with closed borders and proper quarantine and track and trace to get it.

So, to summarise what she is saying. The vaccines will definitely not prevent transmission and that even when all adults are vaccinated, large numbers of people will still get ill enough to require hospitalisation and very many will still suffer from Long Covid? And that this will be the ongoing situation, unless we totally eliminate the virus.

I thought it was not yet known for sure that the vaccines will do nothing to prevent transmission. And I haven't heard any one else really discuss the expected impact of vaccination on Long Covid. Is it known for sure that this will still be common after people have been vaccinated?

I'm not denying what she is saying, obviously she is an expert and I am not. However there are other experts such as Sir John Bell and Michael Osterholm, who do not seem to have such a pessimistic outlook. Osterholm (American, but regularly consulted for his views on the global situation) is renowned for giving 'straight talk' on the crisis and even refers to himself as 'Bad News Mike', but even he does not give such a dire prognosis and seems fairly optimistic that we can return to at least a form of normality as a result of the vaccines (see his Osterholm updates available on Youtube).

Dr Gurdasani clearly believes an elimination strategy, via restrictions and test and trace, is the only solution. Is this really possible for much of the world though?

I thought it was not yet known for sure that the vaccines will do nothing to prevent transmission. And I haven't heard any one else really discuss the expected impact of vaccination on Long Covid. Is it known for sure that this will still be common after people have been vaccinated?

Just to add, I know she may well be correct about this, but I just thought it wasn't known one way or the other yet.

Hands up, who thinks Great Britain can realistically "totally eliminate" the virus?

Remember, Northern Ireland has free movement over land border to another country. We can't say what Irish or EU policy will be. So this policy would have to be GB-only. Hiving off Norn might be a logical outcome if this policy were pursued.

There will still be so many unprotected people after the first 4 groups are vaccinated, that if we open up then, we can expect cases to soar. The unprotected people will be the ones still most out and about in society. Of these, there will still be some that get sick, possibly enough to overwhelm hospitals and lots of cases of long covid

I've rewatched a few times and I am still not clear whether she is saying that she expects there to continue to be high numbers of hospitalisations and cases of Long Covid even after these groups are vaccinated, or whether she just means while only the top 4 priority groups are vaccinated.

BlueBlancmange do you have a link please do Michael Osterholm's YouTube updates? I'm feeling really despondent after watching that interview on iPlayer and need another scientists perspective, that is hopefully a bit more optimistic. I can't live like this for years to come with constant restrictions, my mentally health is crumbling.

@JuneMoonstone

BlueBlancmange do you have a link please do Michael Osterholm's YouTube updates? I'm feeling really despondent after watching that interview on iPlayer and need another scientists perspective, that is hopefully a bit more optimistic. I can't live like this for years to come with constant restrictions, my mentally health is crumbling.

Mine is too I can't live like this for many years

@JuneMoonstone

BlueBlancmange do you have a link please do Michael Osterholm's YouTube updates? I'm feeling really despondent after watching that interview on iPlayer and need another scientists perspective, that is hopefully a bit more optimistic. I can't live like this for years to come with constant restrictions, my mentally health is crumbling.

This is the latest podcast, but you can look up others by searching for 'Osterholm Update'. It's not all sugarcoating and light by any means, but he does say things that show more optimism for the future as a result of vaccination than Dr Gurdasani does.

I am taking it as saying the vaccinations will do a huge amount to help but we need to do more, at least for the next few years. I imagine a large amount of this ‘more’ will be helped by many companies continuing with employees wfh and keeping measures like social distancing and staggered drop offs/pick ups and bubbles at schools.

Proof of vaccination, testing and potential quarantine at borders is also likely to be needed. However, that means we can travel and see friends/relatives or go on holiday.

It won’t be the same as before, but it will be a new normal that means we can get on with our lives in a relatively happy manner.

I read a useful article about how returning to the old norm means back in a situation where this sort of pandemic arises which we want to prevent, so I find it a good reminder to think of that whenever I want to go back to how things were.

I miss a lot of my old life so it’s not a particularly cheery thought but enough my old life will return before long and that’s good enough for me for now.

There will still be so many unprotected people after the first 4 groups are vaccinated, that if we open up then, we can expect cases to soar.

I'm not sure we will open up then, I just think (/hope) that messaging is being used to give people enough hope to get through the next month or so until the tide starts to shift a little. And then the messaging will adjust, people will feel stronger from seeing progress, days will be longer, things will seem less bleak, we will take a breath and keep going.

Whitty has talked about the long term view. Once we have the benefit of vaccines being rolled out to the point where we are with flu, the types of restrictions and measures used will be different in nature and duration.

I expect we will have winter covid pressure annually and that the health system will need to be better managed and resourced to cope with winters adequately in our new landscape.

godhelpusall I think you might have to accept that you aren’t facing the actual situation any more than anyone else

@SnowFields

I am taking it as saying the vaccinations will do a huge amount to help but we need to do more, at least for the next few years. I imagine a large amount of this ‘more’ will be helped by many companies continuing with employees wfh and keeping measures like social distancing and staggered drop offs/pick ups and bubbles at schools.

Proof of vaccination, testing and potential quarantine at borders is also likely to be needed. However, that means we can travel and see friends/relatives or go on holiday.

It won’t be the same as before, but it will be a new normal that means we can get on with our lives in a relatively happy manner.

I read a useful article about how returning to the old norm means back in a situation where this sort of pandemic arises which we want to prevent, so I find it a good reminder to think of that whenever I want to go back to how things were.

I miss a lot of my old life so it’s not a particularly cheery thought but enough my old life will return before long and that’s good enough for me for now.

Sorry but people are not social distancing now !!! I will not be social distancing from my family and friends for the next few years .... and employers won't do it either ... it is not just about covid but the economy too

BlueBlancmange thank you, I'll take a look at that.

“ Whitty has talked about the long term view. Once we have the benefit of vaccines being rolled out to the point where we are with flu, the types of restrictions and measures used will be different in nature and duration. ”

Yes. It’s been fairly clear to me that when long term restrictions are referred to they aren’t talking about the worst of them. But many people panic and assume they mean lockdown for years.

@JuneMoonstone

I watched the interview and it was so depressing. Looks like life will never be back to normal if we're going to have never ending restrictions to control the virus. What's the point in being alive if this is the way of life from now on?

I agree. I’d be off to Dignitas if it was possible to leave the house. Everything I valued in life is gone and I don’t see a future for DD. I have a roof over my head and a job that I used to like, but this isn’t living, only existing.

Sorry but people are not social distancing now !!! I will not be social distancing from my family and friends for the next few years .... and employers won't do it either ... it is not just about covid but the economy too

But by keeping social distancing measures in place there are plenty of people who will abide by it and that (once this wave is over) should help with some sort of return to normality. Lockdowns and restrictions are calculated with the acceptance that some people don’t follow.

Some employers can and if they do, again it will help. It’s unfortunately a case of measures being dragged out because of those not following them as well as inconsistent messaging from the government.

Balancing the economy with people is a huge issue and a really difficult one. Both are needed for each other’s survival but ultimately (even though it doesn’t always feel like it) people more than the economy.