Long term covid restrictions

[MummaBear4321]

I was eating bbc breakfast this morning and they interviewed an epidemiologist who stated very clearly that the vaccinations are not at all a solution to this virus, and that they will do 'nothing to stem the spread and hospital admission rates' and that the 'majority of people will not be protected from infection and its devastating effects'. She said we need 'long term policies that aim to reduce transmission'. She specifically mentioned quarantines at borders and mitigation of spread in schools long term.

I am usually a relative positive person, I dont freak easily, but am I right in saying she thinks, as an expert, that we need to live under social distancing, remote leaning, and for those of us whose family live abroad, not seeing our family for the foreseeable future? She is starting if regulations to allow us to see people are relaxed will be in this never ending cycle of transmission and death ......

Perky way to start a Sunday morning. Someone please tell me she is just being dramatic, or at the very least she isnt considering the public backlash and that eventually the government will have to give us some hope at seeing the people we love. We cant live under these restrictions forever surely.

@Sitt

“ Whitty has talked about the long term view. Once we have the benefit of vaccines being rolled out to the point where we are with flu, the types of restrictions and measures used will be different in nature and duration. ”

Yes. It’s been fairly clear to me that when long term restrictions are referred to they aren’t talking about the worst of them. But many people panic and assume they mean lockdown for years.

I’d be surprised if we have another lockdown. The second wave, always expected to be the worst, will pass and vaccinations and other measures means far looser restrictions moving forward.

But even looser restrictions means no music, no theatre, no singing in church, no having play dates, no friends to dinner, no meeting people from another household in a restaurant, WFH indefinitely.

I wish I were dead. There’s just no point in a life lived on a screen.

The trouble is we all view the restrictions according to what affects our lives most. Those who have family abroad or live for foreign holidays are probably going to really struggle with long term travel restrictions (I’m only guessing, but I expect that is probably a longer term thing). I have a baby and toddler so restaurant and pub closures barely affect me right now (though I still want them around for when I can go out again!) but I am heavily affected by not being able to socialise with family and friends, and if childcare is restricted I can’t work. We all have aspects that feel unbearable in the short and long term.

I miss all those things too NefretForth :(

So does this mean we can’t travel around the country to see friends or family anymore? My family all live 200 miles away and it’s coming up to 9 months since I saw them. They’re missing their grandson (my DS) so much.

What about pubs, restaurants and cafes? Will they just go bust?

I assume a lot of things are going to go bust, @Swissrollypoly. My DD’s music school is burning through its reserves, if it can’t reopen at the beginning of next term, it’s gone and we won’t get it back.

So will things like theatres ever be able to open again or should we assume they are a thing of the past now? Or will seats will be far apsrt from each other that fewer ticketsare sold and prices will soar. Just the thought of a future with no theatres alone makes me want to weep. It's all so so horrible.

This is a bit ridiculous. The amount of deaths in the under 40s is absolutely minuscule. With vaccinations, both deaths and hospitalisation will be massively reduced.

Yes, some people will still be ill because of the virus, but that will be the same as pretty much any other illness. After vaccination of the vulnerable, the harm caused to everyone and especially children and young people from the ‘safety measures’ will far far exceed the damage done by the virus.

She’s an epidemiologist. A full on, science trained specialist focising only on this one disease. She seems to be arguing for elimination rather than suppression. I have colleagues who hold the same views.

I disagree. As a society we accept all sorts of risks all of the time. We don’t live free from disease or danger. We get on with our lives in the context of risk.

If the vaccine protects those most at risk from the worst outcomes, we debate again, as a society, what risk we will tolerate.

I don’t believe that persistent disruption of education, travel and socialising will be the answer.

@JuneMoonstone

I can't see how schools can reopen normally for months or even years, since as soon as they do, cases will jump right up. My poor 5 year old daughter, what a miserable life.

Kids were in school from August to December here in Scotland, with no significant rise in case numbers until the winter second wave. Schools can go back when the vaccine kicks in and better weather brings down transmission as it did last year. If kids can attend school for months in a country without vaccines, we definitely aren't facing years of homeschool in a country with vaccines.

I just need some hope that I can see my parents in ireland. At the minute, with 2 weeks quarantine both sides and 600 quid for tests, it's not possible as they cant take 6 weeks off for a 2 week visit, but I need to be able to envision some future where I get to sit in the same room as my mother, or my kids know who their grandparents are, even if we have to fork out heaps of money for testing. I understand the need for restrictions but I absolutely cannot live like this forever. I just cant. This isnt living, its existing.

Also, just to add what PPs have been saying about non compliance, my DHs Grandparents are getting their second jab tomorrow and have already organised to go stay with DHs parents for a week once they are immune ..... I dont think people will be willing to sit in their houses, being lonely and miserable, once these vaccines really kick in. The effects of thay are also very worrying.

I agree, @Eyewhisker, but clearly those who make the decisions are thinking otherwise. I’m in my late 40s, and fit and well if you don’t count the lockdown-related suicidal thoughts. Once everyone vulnerable has been vaccinated, I’d be perfectly happy to take the small risk involved in returning to my pre-Covid life. But I can’t if the aim is that no-one ever dies of Covid.

Thank you MorrisZap I needed to hear that as long term school closures is a big worry for me.

@NefretForth

But even looser restrictions means no music, no theatre, no singing in church, no having play dates, no friends to dinner, no meeting people from another household in a restaurant, WFH indefinitely.

I wish I were dead. There’s just no point in a life lived on a screen.

I feel like that the longer this carried on the more people will die if suicide

But we won’t count as we didn’t sadly die of Covid.

@Eyewhisker

This is a bit ridiculous. The amount of deaths in the under 40s is absolutely minuscule. With vaccinations, both deaths and hospitalisation will be massively reduced.

Yes, some people will still be ill because of the virus, but that will be the same as pretty much any other illness. After vaccination of the vulnerable, the harm caused to everyone and especially children and young people from the ‘safety measures’ will far far exceed the damage done by the virus.

This is exactly the view I hold. I was shocked to hear her advocate for something very different

The unprotected people will be the ones still most out and about in society. Of these, there will still be some that get sick, possibly enough to overwhelm hospitals and lots of cases of long covid

Some people getting ill, suffering long Covid or dying is not a good reason to maintain restrictions as long as the NHS isn’t overwhelmed.

Sorry but people are not social distancing now !!! I will not be social distancing from my family and friends for the next few years .... and employers won't do it either ... it is not just about covid but the economy too

Exactly

The politicians and health experts are wired to the fucking moon if they think that vaccinated people are not going to mix freely. My sister has been vaccinated, my parents and me will be hopefully soon. Within a couple of weeks of our second doses restrictions on meeting each other indoors and social distancing are a thing of the past for us.

At the end of the day these are our lives, not the government’s, not epidemiologists.

“ I was shocked to hear her advocate for something very different”

She is an epidemiologist, being asked how to stop an epidemic, it’s her main focus. The way it plays out in real society, with real humans whose needs are more varied, depends on other factors which politicians have to make decisions on (for better or worse)

@JuneMoonstone

I can't see how schools can reopen normally for months or even years, since as soon as they do, cases will jump right up. My poor 5 year old daughter, what a miserable life.

I wouldn't have had DD if I knew her life was going to be like this. And if i didn't have DD I would be contemplating suicide.

Sorry but people are not social distancing now !!! I will not be social distancing from my family and friends for the next few years .... and employers won't do it either ... it is not just about covid but the economy too

Yep. Social distancing means that whole industries - hospitality, transport, leisure, tourism, the arts, entertainment etc - simply cannot function at a profit. It won't go on for 'the next year years'. It can't.

Rosie I feel the same as you. I've had many thoughts of suicide throughout this pandemic. The only thing keeping me here is my daughter.

And me @JuneMoonstone and @RosieLemonade.

@NefretForth

And me *@JuneMoonstone and @RosieLemonade*.

Me too