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Covid

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Serious Covid illness in younger people with no serious underlying conditions

103 replies

Bettydot · 08/01/2021 10:16

Recently in video and news paper reports in the mainstream media I’ve noticed more of a mention of younger people in their 20s, 30s and 40s being seriously ill in hospital and ICUs with covid. There seems to have been more of a mention of this during this wave compared to previously. I’m aware that the new strain is only thought to be more infectious and that there have always been some younger people who are severely effected however I’ve noticed that the number of younger people who are getting seriously ill with Covid has been flagged up with more frequency recently. Does anyone know if there has been a rise in younger people being seriously effected and if so why or if this nothing has changed and it’s more of a case of making sure that people are aware that no one is immune to serious illness?

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Lumene · 08/01/2021 10:22

So far no data I have seen suggests the younger are now more susceptible. Higher figures would lead to larger numbers in all age groups.

hamstersarse · 08/01/2021 10:23

No, it is the same as it always has been in terms of risk

RememberSelfCompassion · 08/01/2021 10:25

Part of the problem is that the reporting of low numbers with no "underlying conditions" has made younger people on the whole feel safe.

What so many haven't realised is that having had depression/a broken bone/ eczema/anything you can think of counts for those statistics. Its given a false safety.

These are different than for thise cv or ecv.

movingonup20 · 08/01/2021 10:33

It's still very rare but consequently more newsworthy. 50,000 people had positive tests yesterday, and the day before and the day before etc. 30,000 are in hospital, some have been there for months so the rate of serious illness hasn't changed, what has changed is total infections and with that overall numbers will have increased eg if 1% of under 50's get seriously ill if there's 10x as many getting infected then 10x as many will be seriously ill. In the first wave I think younger people took lockdown very seriously and parents enforced it, not sure this is the case now - theres teens roaming around in groups bored stiff here because their parents are wfh and they would need to be quiet there and it's bloody freezing!

Bettydot · 08/01/2021 10:34

Thank you for your replies. I hadn’t seen any data showing that younger people are now more susceptible to serious illness. I just don’t remember hearing so much about younger people in the first peak. I’d also assumed that it was possibly due to a relative increase in numbers due to the extremely high numbers. I also wonder if younger people have now been able to access hospital treatment when in the first wave they would have been left at home, despite being very unwell as we now know more about the importance of intervention. It’s reassuring that there doesn’t seem to be a change, though still concerning never the less that it’s so random in the way it effects people.

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thefallthroughtheair · 08/01/2021 10:36

As PPs have said, no this is not correct.
You might be thinking of the Duffel interview, which spawned a lot of very irresponsible SM nonsense before the BBC bothered to do some actual journalism and fact check.

Shudawuda · 08/01/2021 10:40

Because we have a 24hr rolling news which is driven by the need to provide new news and click bait so they’ve moved the fear factor up a notch. Young people is good fodder not backed up as yet by statistics.

wibdib · 08/01/2021 10:43

I think also the government has been quite lax with itsdiscissions around this and have always been quite happy to say about the lower risk for children, implying that they’re a single group aged 0-18. First lockdown senior school kids were at home rather than school so not in a position to be exposed to it or catch it. Now that they have been our and exposed in school, it’s clear that there is an age effect and that rates get higher as kids get older. There are also now concerns that kids present differently - it’s less respiratory, more Skin/GI based, so the tests aren’t picking it up for these younger kids.

AlphaJura · 08/01/2021 10:46

There's not a rise in it affecting younger people more, but even before, it was rare but the odd young person was affected badly. Because this strain is spreading so fast, more and more people are affected at any one time so they will naturally see more young people in hospital. As a percentage still rare. If hospitals get to the point where they really can't cope, more younger people may die for lack of basic care, when they shouldn't because staff are too busy dealing with critical cases.

Chosennonesneakymincepie · 08/01/2021 11:00

This has been quite unsettling to read lately. I have always taken this seriously and am a keyworker in education.

NastyBlouse · 08/01/2021 11:03

Two things going on I think.

First of all, at the moment we have much higher case numbers than at any time since last spring. Purely in spread terms, coronavirus doesn't target one age group over another. So there are simply higher numbers of people across all age groups becoming infected. So as a consequence, we're going to see a higher number of people across all age groups requiring hospitalisation.

This does not mean that the virus, or its effects on the body, has changed or become more severe. There is no evidence showing this to be the case. The 'new variant' (bear in mind there are around 20,000 identified variants of covid, with more being picked up all the time) appears to spread more easily, but no one is suggesting that it causes more severe illness, or proportionately affects more younger people.

The other thing that might not quite be happening yet but will definitely start to happen is a shift in the ratios of who is going into hospital. Statistically, we're going to see a (slight) uptick in the proportion of (slightly) younger people entering hospital over the coming weeks.

As I understand it, this will be a natural consequence of the vaccination programme; as more over-80s are vaccinated, the sheer numbers of cases and deaths in that group will drop.

This doesn't mean that 'more' younger people are being affected in pure numbers terms. And it doesn't mean that there is 'more risk' to younger people in terms of effects. It's just that the data will show a shift in the proportions of who is affected, because the most at-risk group should now start to see some protection.

So we might still see a greater proportion of cases and hospital admissions being younger people. (It's worth noting that a lot of the time, 'younger' is not defined.)

Again, this does not mean that the virus itself, or the illness it causes, has changed or worsened at all.

A friend of mine works in a London hospital; he is pretty blunt about all this and he says the typical ICU patient is much the same as it's always been; fat, unhealthy men 60 and up. They see the odd younger, healthier person but it's rare. (That's not to say that fat, unhealthy men deserve to be there, or don't matter because they're fat and unhealthy. It's more to demonstrate that the demographic of the typical covid positive patient hasn't changed much.)

Whether the press will report this with the context in place or not is anyone's guess...

The press articles at the moment are, I believe, there to nudge people into compliance. The NHS is close to overwhelm, is overwhelmed in some places, and this needs a strategy to manage it. That doesn't mean the stories aren't true, in some respect. But they are also a useful public behavioural management tool; a lot of people pay much more attention to their daily newspaper than to a politician on TV, for example.

The other thing to remember is that shock sells, and if it bleeds, it leads. There have always been a small proportion of younger people who end up in hospital with covid. There have always been a small proportion of younger people who are affected by almost any serious illness. These stories tend to make the press purely because they are shocking and rare.

Many years ago, when I was younger, a close friend of mine died aged 22 of a heart attack. She had no underlying conditions (they did a post mortem, as you would imagine) and there was no 'lifestyle' reason that she would have one (i.e. she wasn't overweight, a heavy drinker or anything else). Ultimately they couldn't find a medically identifiable reason why an otherwise healthy 22-year-old would have a fatal heart attack. She just did. It made the press and there were lots of scare stories around about 20-somethings having heart problems, because there are in fact a tiny number each year who this happens to. But the fact remains it's incredibly rare.

I would also caution against reading too much into social media especially. There are a lot of damaged people out there making up frightening fake stories and posting them on MN, reddit, and goodness knows where else. They were doing the rounds back in April and they're doing the rounds again now. There were tales of 'healthy young mums in their 40s' dying of covid that were simply not true (I know this because I saw the exact same posts copied and pasted on various forums, with the details of the 'victim' changed to make it applicable to the forum's audience). That's not to say that all posts aren't true, but it's worth remembering that anyone can post on a forum, or Twitter or Facebook, and nothing is verifiable unless it comes with credible data attached. So it could as easily be lies as truth.

hamstersarse · 08/01/2021 11:18

Thanks @NastyBlouse. Rationality

I do wish the government had done something concrete for the 'fat unhealthy men'

It wouldn't have been that difficuly

user1493413286 · 08/01/2021 12:01

I think the media are just reporting it more but numbers are still very low. It’s always been the case that the young aren’t immune to becoming seriously ill but it’s infrequent

Bettydot · 08/01/2021 12:45

@NastyBlouse thank you, that’s really useful to hear your friend’s account of the demographic in his hospital. I’m always wary of sources of information but I had noticed an increased mention of younger patients from reliable sources, which had led me to question if anything had changed or not. Everyone on the thread has confirmed my initial assumptions that this relates to a general increase in numbers etc and it’s good to hear that no one is aware of any percentage increase in younger people being seriously effected. Not of course that it’s any better that older people are at risk. I’ve been very cautious throughout but wanted to know if anything had changed in relation to my personal risk, as my biggest concern in relation to my age had been long covid rather than needing hospital treatment. Here’s hoping that the vaccination rollout goes smoothly and starts to give us a way out of this.

OP posts:
Yohoheaveho · 08/01/2021 12:54

Nastyblouse
Thank you for taking the time and effort to make your very helpful post 🙏

Busygoingblah · 08/01/2021 12:58

The more people have covid the more people in every age group will be ill.

Younger, healthy people are more likely to respond to ICU treatment in the very unlikely scenario that they needs it. Hospitals are now so full that medical staff have to make difficult deductions about who to give intensive treatment to. If a 30 year older and a 75 year have the same level of illness but three only the bed to treat one of them the 30 year old will get the bed. The 75 year old will die. This will in end you with it looking like there’s a higher proportion of young people in hospital.

Haggertyjane · 08/01/2021 13:04

Younger people (30/40) struggle with the idea of illness and death from Covid.

They equate the severity of the illness with death numbers and completely ignore the fact they could be in ICU for 4 weeks at deaths door, but because they recover its a 'mild flu like illness'

Believe me, ICUs are NOT full of 80 year olds with underlying health conditions who are going to die anyway, but much younger people who usually recover but have a hellish time before they do.

Haggertyjane · 08/01/2021 13:06

42 yo man on Breakfast TV this morning. Fit and healthy, needed intubating on ICU and nearly died. He didn't figure in the death statistics so younger people are just not seeing the real picture.

Jrobhatch29 · 08/01/2021 13:12

@Haggertyjane

42 yo man on Breakfast TV this morning. Fit and healthy, needed intubating on ICU and nearly died. He didn't figure in the death statistics so younger people are just not seeing the real picture.
I don't think the hospitalisation statistics support your version either though.
Carrotcakeforbreakfast · 08/01/2021 13:15

@Haggertyjane great post.

I've been saying this since all this began. A lot of people feel safe because they're in their 30s.
A lot of people are taking it all too literally. It is like they think it will be like a mild cold or death.
Not realising that those in their 80s who have died generally won't have got an itu space anyway.
In my trust we have mainly 60s but not by many. The next age group in terms of percentages are those in their 40s.

bailey999 · 08/01/2021 13:16

This is being reported in the Evening Standard but don't if that's reliable.

'Intensive care doctors said people aged 19 to 30 were being hospitalised with the new “Kent strain” of the virus and issued an alert to critical care colleagues across mainland Europe'

EmbarrassingAdmissions · 08/01/2021 13:27

I also wonder if younger people have now been able to access hospital treatment when in the first wave they would have been left at home, despite being very unwell as we now know more about the importance of intervention.

There is substantial regional variation. As PPs say, the larger number of infected people mean that by the law of large numbers, there are greater numbers of younger people who need to be admitted.

In some regions (Guardian piece today), GPs can't refer a patient to hospital unless their oximetry is

Lumene · 08/01/2021 13:29

'Intensive care doctors said people aged 19 to 30 were being hospitalised with the new “Kent strain” of the virus and issued an alert to critical care colleagues across mainland Europe'

People in all age groups including under 18s have been hospitalised since the start, just very small percentages. Nothing in that article suggests anything has changed.

It may change of course or evidence may come to light, but that is not evidence.

swaziscot · 08/01/2021 13:30

My dh also works in a London hospital - he works in the high dependency unit for Covid-19 patients. They’re opening up extra wards to fill them with patients and many of them are in their 40s this time round. (And they are short staffed and giving less quality care because of that). In the last peak it was mostly people over 65 or 75 in the hospital he worked in; this time around there are many people in their 40s and 50s who are very sick.
I think it’s dangerous to say that the media are making this up to try and drive compliance among the public. That’s getting into conspiracy theory-ridden “fake news” territory. At the same time every hospital is different and every region is different. I’m not saying that every hospital in the UK is the same as my DH’s but at the same time, we also can’t draw conclusions from the one doctor that @NastyBlouse knows.