We are now in disaster mode

[lovelemoncurd]

“We are now in disaster medicine mode,” it said.
“We are no longer providing high-standard critical care, because we cannot. While this is far from ideal, it’s the way things are, and the way they have to be for now.”

I see that this means rationing medical care. So those who would have previously been given a chance will now not.

This is really significant!

There was research at the start that said smoking may have helped to decrease the risk of covid - I noted yesterday that it's now been debunked by new research that shows it is indeed a risk factor.

It's utterly terrifying the situation with 1200 dead yesterday

What people can't grasp is that the virus is completely unpredictable. Just because it's mild for many doesn't mean you can predict how it will affect YOU.

There is now 1 intensive care nurse to 4 or 5 patients in London - it's supposed to be 1 to 1 for that person to have the best care - by best care I mean chance of LIVING

The nurse interviewed yesterday on the ward said that she had multiple patients in their 20's/30's

Some of these young people are going to die because the care is becoming inadequate

interesting posts on here because I was wondering how so many were passing it on . where I am everything is really quiet . And everyone I knew actually did much less mixing at Christmas than was allowed .

@Morgan12

Why is there always a comment trying to play down how bad things are?

Do people not watch the news? Or are some people just compete pricks?

(It's the latter btw)

Not defending it, but I wonder if it's self preservation, meaning it's so hard to contemplate the only way some People can cope is pretend it's not happening. It's awful. It's been a tough week.

"Disaster" - the media loves that word, it keeps everybody terrified.

Yes! That's why we had the previous lockdowns and other restrictions. So when the winter escalation hit hospitals would stand some chance of coping.

THIS, RIGHT NOW, IS WHAT IT HAS ALL BEEN ABOUT!

If we and the NHS are lucky the numbers will stop rising over the next week, if the usual time lag occurs. It will be close, some places won't cope, will use emergency plans B - Z.

But THIS is what the government have been saying over and over again since March/April!

All that fucking clapping and banging pots on doorsteps was for this... for the poor sods who have been telling us they are their wits end, stay indoors, stop whinging, just bloody do what has to be done!

And yet the incredulity continues...

Those upthread saying "well, we've closed down schools and it hasn't made any difference, so we might as well not have bothered..."

You do realise, don't you, that there's a time lag?

We only closed schools 4 days ago.

Incubation is about a week to 10 days. From there it generally takes about a week to require hospitalisation. The cases going into hospital now were acquired at or before Christmas.

It then takes a week or two to die, if the patient sadly has it so seriously that they die. So the deaths currently being recorded are from infections acquired about a month ago.

We will not see any impact in the figures for new cases from school closure for another fortnight.

We will not see any impact in the figures for deaths due to closing schools for another month.

(Maths. Why do so few people actually understand maths? Or is it our culture of instant gratification? "We closed schools 4 days ago, I WANT RESULTS NOW!!!!" Violet Elizabeth Bott style tantrum.

Wanders off shaking head in disbelief.)

TwentyTwentyOne not a HCP myself, but it's well known that obesity is the commonest risk factor after age. This was identified way back in March/April, and Boris Johnson adressed it in the summer. Though it appears that not many people are following his advice.

@Peachered I know a smoker who contacted Covid at the start. Young, fit and otherwise healthy. She now has long Covid and is in and out of hospital months later.

It feels like we're so close to getting out of this but yes, you can see it getting a lot worse over the next month

It’s inevitable, as hospital admissions lag about a week behind new infections, and ICU admissions a week or so after that.

Record high new infections day before yesterday.

The only thing that takes the pressure off is sharply reducing contact between people, and waiting for the vaccine to protect the most vulnerable

Graphs of worldwide figures from the American Centre for Disease Control, based on official reports from each country.

91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?fbclid=IwAR30qEvzq11I78qY5WyPOXUOtjUmZdzQL3d-k9gtDLrG6SMyl5EwD0lWmmU

The third graph down is most useful - cases/ deaths normalised by population, i.e. cases per 100,000 of the population.

The UK is currently in 3rd place, behind Ireland and Czechia. (This is not the sort of "race" in which coming in 3rd is a good thing...)

Ireland is also a scary illustration of how fast things can take off if you relax your controls - they look like they're doing okay-ish right up to about 6 days ago then the growth rate suddenly goes almost vertical, and they shoot up into first place. (I'm guessing they've now got the new UK variant, but in a country which had to some extent relaxed controls because they thought they were - and indeed from the figures it did look as though they geniunely were - doing quite well in controlling things.)

@PuzzledObserver

you do realise you may just have been lucky ?

My cousin ( in 50s ) and her husband both have covid . Both have same diets . Both have always been fit - physical work / horseriding etc . Both take vitamin supplements

She has had mild symptoms - unpleasant but mild - he has been extremely ill and needing oxygen for weeks .

I think your assumption that vitamin D was your saviour may be misplaced because the scenario above is playing out all over the country .

It's all looking really bad. But so many just don't seem to see it. I spoke to a friend (who used to be fairly rational) the other day and she was trying to convince me that Covid doesn't exist, it's a construct used by unseen powers to try and cull huge swathes of the population and control the rest. All the apparent incompetence by the government is just a smokescreen to confuse us etc. She's refused to wear a mask from the outset - 'they are making us where masks, which cause pneumonia, in order to increase the number of deaths'... that kind of madness. I found it really dispiriting because nothing I could say to convince her and I fear there are so many like that who are just ignoring the rules

@screamingfemale

A "strong" immune system doesn't necessarily mean anything when it comes to infections. Yes it helps but sometimes your genetics deals you a bad hand. Everyone's individual genetics means that their immune cells recognise different sequences. Some T cells (for example) are better stimulated than others depending on the sequences they recognise so your genetics can play a big role to an individual virus. Vitamin D and fresh air does nothing to help with that.

@deathbyprocrastination I don't think I'd have the energy to deal with her. I think a lot of these people are short of attention at home. There are much better hobbies.

@ConfusedcomMum You aren't being injected with the virus. That's the biggest misconception out there. Instead of googling BiG PHArMA conspiracies theories, people would do a lot better googling how vaccines are actually made.

As with most areas of medicine related to Covid-19 the research into comorbidities is in its infancy. However there is increasing evidence that certain conditions are predictors of poorer outcomes in those patients. Sorry for the scientific speak.
I have an interest (dentist) in a possible link with existing periodontal disease (severe gum disease). It is linked to heart disease and diabetes, not as a causative factor but it often accompanies these other disease suggesting it has a genetic link.
Gum disease is the last thing medics are concerned about when admitting a critically ill patient. But a quick assessment may help calculating individual risk factor and subsequent treatment regime.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7719810/
Research is ongoing but if this disease becomes endemic it’s just another tool for medics in their assessment.

@Unsure33, no one is exactly at the same place despite similar diets etc... eg two people might assimilate vit and minerals or fats differently.

Research has shown how much vit D can do. It’s positive and will make a difference for many people, esp if otherwise they would have been deficient.
What it doesn’t mean is that taking vit D or any other vit will be enough to protect you. Which seems to be the case for your friend. Nor does it mean there is no point in looking at your diet/supplementing

@Angrymum22, I know a dentist who was working with critically ill children. She said she could predict quite accurately who would pull through just by looking at their gums.

There are more and more info around that (eg link between gum disease and infertility) but it’s still in its infancy

Sorry, not @ConfusedcomMum, but @Confusedgrievingmum.

As for a 'strong immune system', it can go against you. As I understand it, for some patients, the immune system goes into overdrive and effectively starts attacking the body it's meant to protect.

[quote Confusedgrievingmum]@screamingfemale
I can't believe people are too scared of this virus that they're willing to get themselves injected with it, without any liabilities from their makers. Logic has left the building. 🤷🏽‍♀️[/quote]
I think the phrase you're looking for is 'you can't argue with stupid'

[quote Confusedgrievingmum]@screamingfemale
I can't believe people are too scared of this virus that they're willing to get themselves injected with it, without any liabilities from their makers. Logic has left the building. 🤷🏽‍♀️[/quote]
I can’t believe that after decades of immunisation some people still don’t understand how it works. Depressing

[quote Confusedgrievingmum]@screamingfemale
I can't believe people are too scared of this virus that they're willing to get themselves injected with it, without any liabilities from their makers. Logic has left the building. 🤷🏽‍♀️[/quote]
🤦🏼‍♀️

You do realise, don't you, that there's a time lag? We only closed schools 4 days ago

They have been closed since December 18th in England and reopened for one day only.