Why vaccinations will eliminate deaths quite quickly

[starfro]

You only need to vaccinate 0.5million to eliminate 36% of deaths (carehome)

Vaccinating the 3million in the next group (over 80s) eliminates 66% of deaths.

Vaccinating these groups should be possible within weeks.

Hope so

Not just about deaths though. But I like your optimism.

They said on the news this evening that hospital admissions in the over 80's had reduced.
Hopefully an effect of the vaccines

.

I hope so!!

Yeah, right. Look who’s in charge. I’m not putting any money on them vaccinating even half the people they’re aiming to over the next three months. They also have to work out how to undo the effects of intentionally frightening younger people who are low risk if they want to avoid the kind of hysterical ‘throwing the under-50s under a bus’ rhetoric that I’ve seen on here.

@ReeseWitherfork

Not just about deaths though. But I like your optimism.

Hospitilisations should be very low in vaccinated groups.

It won't reduce as much of a percentage as deaths, but should reduce pressure on the NHS by a sizeable amount.

I'm 63 & I'm more worried about having long covid for the rest of my life.

BBC News tonight reporting govt intends that groups 1-4 will be offered first shot by mid February - 13 million people, including NHS and care workers, over 70’s and the CEV. Protection would therefore kick in for all of them from end of Feb.

If they can pull that out of the hat, it will make a massive difference.

@starfro

You only need to vaccinate 0.5million to eliminate 36% of deaths (carehome)

Vaccinating the 3million in the next group (over 80s) eliminates 66% of deaths.

Vaccinating these groups should be possible within weeks.

What about rolling cohort coming in to care homes? What about passing on the disease whilst vaccinated. What about less than 70% effectiveness? What about inter family transmission during two part vaccination process?

@DrRamsesEmerson

Yeah, right. Look who’s in charge. I’m not putting any money on them vaccinating even half the people they’re aiming to over the next three months. They also have to work out how to undo the effects of intentionally frightening younger people who are low risk if they want to avoid the kind of hysterical ‘throwing the under-50s under a bus’ rhetoric that I’ve seen on here.

As you say, under 50's account for 1% of overall deaths so vaccinating them isn't a priority.

Actually for under 25's, flu is more deadly than Covid.

I expect them to vaccinate everyone though eventually, partly due to the irrrational fear factor that many people have, despite the negligible risks they face.

Many have said on this board that the covid predictor website was showing longer and longer waits for the vaccine. I'm 70 and cev. In November it predicted id get the vaccine in February. Today it says I'll get it sometime between March and may. Knob head said in his announcement today, that it would be February. I'm not holding my breath. I think April/ May is favourite.

So your predictions, opening poster, may be right, but it's not going to happen anytime soon

@starfro

You only need to vaccinate 0.5million to eliminate 36% of deaths (carehome)

Vaccinating the 3million in the next group (over 80s) eliminates 66% of deaths.

Vaccinating these groups should be possible within weeks.

You are a bit of sunshine on a cloudy day

@DrRamsesEmerson

Yeah, right. Look who’s in charge. I’m not putting any money on them vaccinating even half the people they’re aiming to over the next three months. They also have to work out how to undo the effects of intentionally frightening younger people who are low risk if they want to avoid the kind of hysterical ‘throwing the under-50s under a bus’ rhetoric that I’ve seen on here.

Yes that may take some time but let's go with a bit of optimism for a moment

@Aprilrainbow

I'm 63 & I'm more worried about having long covid for the rest of my life.

Once you get vaccinated that should mean if you get the virus it will be milder. So hopefully long covid will be less likely.

@user1471453601

Many have said on this board that the covid predictor website was showing longer and longer waits for the vaccine. I'm 70 and cev. In November it predicted id get the vaccine in February. Today it says I'll get it sometime between March and may. Knob head said in his announcement today, that it would be February. I'm not holding my breath. I think April/ May is favourite.

So your predictions, opening poster, may be right, but it's not going to happen anytime soon

I thought the predictor is now showing the date both vaccinations were likely to be completed. So was now taken into account the 12 week gap rather than 3 weeks. At least that is what people have been saying.

The AstraZeneca vaccine makes it a lot easier to vaccinate large numbers of people.

Interestingly it is being reported that both Denmark and Germany are thinking about copying the UK 12 week approach.

@starfro

The AstraZeneca vaccine makes it a lot easier to vaccinate large numbers of people.

Interestingly it is being reported that both Denmark and Germany are thinking about copying the UK 12 week approach.

The Washington Post carried an article suggesting some American doctors are moving towards it too.

@starfro

The AstraZeneca vaccine makes it a lot easier to vaccinate large numbers of people.

Interestingly it is being reported that both Denmark and Germany are thinking about copying the UK 12 week approach.

Not sure anyone’s going to be copying the UK’s approach to much.

It would help morale hugely if the government would prioritise the teachers as per thecNHS.

But the vaccinations are not 100% effective

Isn't the Oxford one only 60% effective, or thereabouts?

And they're not doing the double dose of the Pfeizer one - so that won't be fully effective.

The Astrazeneca prevented hospitalisation. That's huge right now.

@EngineeringFix

The Astrazeneca prevented hospitalisation. That's huge right now.

Yep it’s a way through this

@Elephant4

But the vaccinations are not 100% effective

Isn't the Oxford one only 60% effective, or thereabouts?

And they're not doing the double dose of the Pfeizer one - so that won't be fully effective.

Oxford 60-70% effectiveness at preventing symptomatic infection (possibly higher still with extended schedule) but considerably higher at preventing severe disease and death. Pfizer one still planned to be given in two doses, only mixing them if they aren't available. I'm hoping there is decent planning going into that though, because anecdotally local hubs don't know which vaccine they are going to be getting and when...

Astra Zeneca vaccine said to be 70% effective with one dose.

I had a look at the breakdown of people who had died and came to the same conclusion - vaccinating the most vulnerable cohorts (over 60 with underlying conditions) should reduce the death rate by 75-80%, although that's a back of a cigarette packet calculation.