Why vaccinations will eliminate deaths quite quickly

[starfro]

You only need to vaccinate 0.5million to eliminate 36% of deaths (carehome)

Vaccinating the 3million in the next group (over 80s) eliminates 66% of deaths.

Vaccinating these groups should be possible within weeks.

@Jakey056 I’m about to start vaccinating - that by no means, means I’m an expert but I can answer a few of your worries. The transmission issue is an unknown, it doesn’t mean transmission can/ will occur but it hasn’t be studied. What we do know is asymptomatic transmission is less than symptomatic so it will at least reduce that, and at best it COULD be quite effective on transmission. It is also worth noting that the 70% is about catching (or rather being symptomatic) of the virus. No one in the trial went to hospital with the virus- ie no one got that severely sick with it. All ages in the trials but not CEV. 2 vaccines are needed BUT some immunity at 14 days and a good amount at 21 days. It’s a bit like the baby vaccines- they don’t have no immunity until the course is completed it just needs topping up.

@Elephant4

But the vaccinations are not 100% effective

Isn't the Oxford one only 60% effective, or thereabouts?

And they're not doing the double dose of the Pfeizer one - so that won't be fully effective.

This comes down to the trial and it's slightly misleading. It doesn't mean 62% are prefectly protected, and the remaining 38% have no protection.

The trial will track cases in both the vaccine and control groups. However a very mild case and a severe case are treated the same in the 62% figure.

In the trials, the number of people testing positive in the control group was in the order of magnitude of tens. Because severe illness is so rare, you can't really see how much severe illness is reduced.

It should be noted not a single person in the trial that had the AZ vaccine got more than a mild illness.

On the Pfizer vaccine, thats also speculation. The experts in the field think it's highly likely that one dose will give strong immunity for months.

Thanks OP, I like your optimistic take on things. It's good to focus on the light at the end of the tunnel, especially as it's so dark right now.

I'm hoping to get my vaccine in the spring, then take a break in the UK, in June perhaps. I might even go abroad in September, vaccine and rules permitting.

Preventing hospitalisation is everything - it's what lockdowns etc have all been about.

Love this thread, it’s such good news. Hopefully there will be very high uptake amongst this group.

Then vaccines for the rest as quick as possible, if only to prevent mutations in the future.

But will the vaccine remain effective no matter how much the virus mutates? We are already going through the first mutation & the virus is spreading faster, could it change to get around the vaccination? Or is this something that the experts don't know?

@ReeseWitherfork

Not just about deaths though. But I like your optimism.

No also about hospital admissions but in line with what the OP is saying by vaccinating the most vulnerable, whilst they are a small proportion of the whole population this should have a measured impact on hospital admissions and death 🙏

Yes, but only 'with the wind in our sails', or in the right direction, or some other such caveat included.

But Boris was talking about hoping to start opening up after vaccinating only the 70+ and frontline health/care workers. Surely that will only cut deaths but not hospitalisations (average age in ICU 60) and so won't 'save the NHS'?

Yeah, I think this should be the last month or so with a high death rate and then that should come down and then hospitalisations from there.

But the next 6-8 weeks will be grim.

I also think you’re right op. Logically the more vulnerable people who are vaccinated the lower the hospitalisations ans subsequent deaths

I think it’s really sad that the moment someone tries to point out something positive, some folks rush in and give them a swift kick. It’s hard to tell if this is how they are generally or if it’s due to the virus impacting their mental health.

@Bluntness100 my comment certainly wasn't intended as a swift kick to the OP. I desperately want to believe things will get better by spring.

@bathsh3ba

But Boris was talking about hoping to start opening up after vaccinating only the 70+ and frontline health/care workers. Surely that will only cut deaths but not hospitalisations (average age in ICU 60) and so won't 'save the NHS'?

Hospitilisation will be slightly less affected than deaths, because many of those of very old age won't receive extensive hospital treatment. This will start to balance out once we get toward the 70's age groups, which should be by early February (so mid Feb to see effect).

Hospital workers are also being vaccinated very early, and a lot of capacity is being lost by self-isolating staff.

Thanks for this thread. Where does that table come from?

@RosesAndHellebores

It would help morale hugely if the government would prioritise the teachers as per thecNHS.

That depends entirely on your perspective. It wouldn’t improve my morale at all after shielding since March to be bumped in favour of young and fit teachers with a tiny risk of serious Covid. Any more at risk teachers will be vaccinated in turn in accordance with their risk.

@pinktonic I totally agree with your sentiment but if vaccinating the teachers provides sufficient confident to get our children back to school I think pragmatically we have to look at the opportunity cost overall of not vaccinating them.

I hope very much you are vaccinated very soon.

Thanks OP! This was the thread I needed to see tonight. I need to keep reminding myself that the end is within reach.

I think Boris said tonight that already about a quarter of over 80s have been vaccinated (one dose I presume). That seems like a decent start actually.

Good to see some more positivity :) There are just so many doomsayers around atm. People looking at the worst possible scenario for every situation. It’s exhausting!

Thank you OP for calm positive posts. I find the negativity on most other threads really wearing (and should stop reading them!).

I've read up on the delayed dosing rationale and have no problems with it. I understand the next few weeks will be very difficult, but believe the vaccination rollout is sound.

@DrRamsesEmerson

Yeah, right. Look who’s in charge. I’m not putting any money on them vaccinating even half the people they’re aiming to over the next three months. They also have to work out how to undo the effects of intentionally frightening younger people who are low risk if they want to avoid the kind of hysterical ‘throwing the under-50s under a bus’ rhetoric that I’ve seen on here.

If they stick to the priorities they have laid out, we should be fine

Yes, there are questions about the rate of delivery of vaccines from manufacturers, and so it cannot be guaranteed and that's because of factors beyond government control. But the plans are in place to get it done. And we'll see if it's going to Plan in the next week or so.

The biggest issue, and the one where government action could make a difference, is deciding to divert from the clinical prioritisation. Occupational priority would prolong the need for restrictions (compared to clinical prioritisation) but would mean that workers in those areas would have low risk of serious disease (in line with healthy young adults)

I expect them to vaccinate everyone though eventually, partly due to the irrrational fear factor that many people have, despite the negligible risks they face.

I was convinced they wouldn't do this because it's medically unjustified but I've realised I'm wrong.

In fairness a lot depends on how long immunity lasts for the vaccinated, it's potentially reasonable to vaccinate everyone once to get some degree of temporary, partial herd immunity.

Yes, there are questions about the rate of delivery of vaccines from manufacturers, and so it cannot be guaranteed and that's because of factors beyond government control.

I'm not sure that's true for the AZ/Oxford vaccine. There are very large amounts produced already. (Frankly, if it was, it's easy enough to make that the government could lean on AZ to get it produced under licence). I think the limiting factor is logistics.

Thanks OP, I needed to see this

Thanks for this!
I’m 36 and according to the online tool I’m predicted to be vaccines now in summer so it’s good they are doing it so fast ... hopefully by Easter we should have some light back in our lives !