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Hospitalisation Rates in Children

355 replies

ClimbDad · 01/01/2021 22:01

Mumsnet removed a thread discussing hospitalisation and risks to children following the LBC interview with the hospital matron.

The Department of Health publishes hospitalisation figures by age. Daily hospitalisation of children is currently averaging 40 to 50 admissions.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

The admissions criteria is designed to exclude children who are in hospital for other reasons and catch Covid-19.

I don’t know what we consider an acceptable level of risk. We haven’t had that conversation as a country, but I feel sorry for the hundreds of families living through this horrific experience every week.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
Chaotic45 · 01/01/2021 23:13

@GingerandTilly

Longcovidkids and Tigress have been tracking child hospital admissions using government data...
Hmm I'm not inclined to trust a poster with the username 'longcovidkids'.
umpteennamechanges · 01/01/2021 23:14

To be honest it's useful that LongCovidKids have been plotting daily hospital admissions for children but that needs to be plotted as a % of positive cases for the same age range.

Without that it could be that it's just increasing in line with the number of cases increasing (so no new info other than the new variant being more transmissible which we already knew).

Otherwise if the % was increasing then it would also imply an increased likelihood of hospitalisation.

RainMoon · 01/01/2021 23:14

Only reading as the threads are being deleted which peaked my interest, so MN censoring them is having the opposite effect

Puzzledandpissedoff · 01/01/2021 23:14

The Telegraph have taken the story of the London Nurse down

Have they now? Interesting ...

Interesting too to see the remarks from two NERVTAG members, one set of them sounding rational and the other from ... Neil Ferguson

FestiveStuffing · 01/01/2021 23:14

Isn't it fake news? The Twitter thread linked to a couple of threads ago had a few people on it saying that the matron's footage was not of the ward she said it was of.

TheKeatingFive · 01/01/2021 23:15

No, still up through yahoo search engine

It’s not accessible via the main site

MercyBooth · 01/01/2021 23:16

@Puzzledandpissedoff Interesting indeed.

Have you seen the remarks made by Hugh Montgomery

MercyBooth · 01/01/2021 23:16

WTF is going on.

tilder · 01/01/2021 23:17

@SatishTheCat

Yes there is evidence here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948529/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_w53.pdf

The new strain has been around for a few months so there is data on it. I will try to link to a specific graph but because the threads keep disappearing I keep having to repost.

That information is pretty much the same but with graphs. Yes, Covid rates have been increasing in children. Which we have known for a while.

That does not equate to Covid being more serious for children.

Lucked · 01/01/2021 23:18

Honestly these numbers don’t mean much. Let’s take a typical childhood illness; normally RSV cause “ 29160 hospitalisations and 83 deaths per average season in children and adolescents, with the highest proportions in children

SatishTheCat · 01/01/2021 23:19

@RIPVacuumCleaner

I suspect the truth of the matter is that child covid cases are rising in line with the overall increase in covid cases, but that the percentage of children affected is still low relative to other age groups.

What's annoying is for Mumsnet to keep pulling threads. After all, Radio 5 and the Telegraph, while sensationalist, still generally hold off from completely making shit up.

Yes that sounds about right.

The matron was from a London hospital. The graph on the top right shows COVID-19 hospitalization rate for London for all age groups from last week of October to end of December. Children hospitalized with COVID-19 (grey, blue and yellow lines on the graph) are still very much in the minority relative to adults.

Hospitalisation Rates in Children
Puzzledandpissedoff · 01/01/2021 23:20

I'm not inclined to trust a poster with the username 'longcovidkids'

It's not a poster, Chaotic, but a rather odd looking website ... whether they have anyone skilled in interpreting data in a rational manner is anyone's guess

BethHarmon · 01/01/2021 23:22

Concerning. Feels like we’re back to the unknown, and the kids going back to school next week is a huge experiment.

Chaotic45 · 01/01/2021 23:22

@Puzzledandpissedoff

I'm not inclined to trust a poster with the username 'longcovidkids'

It's not a poster, Chaotic, but a rather odd looking website ... whether they have anyone skilled in interpreting data in a rational manner is anyone's guess

Ah apologies, thank you for clarifying that. I guess though, it's an odd name for a website and my gut feel would again be that it's not an objective place to find facts.
tilder · 01/01/2021 23:24

I found that particular set of graphs reassuring too SatishTheCat

Fortherosesjoni70 · 01/01/2021 23:25

@BethHarmon

Concerning. Feels like we’re back to the unknown, and the kids going back to school next week is a huge experiment.
Yes. Exactly.
Pomegranatespompom · 01/01/2021 23:26

@Chaotic45 a poster talked about this on a previous thread. The statistics were dubious.

Noellodee · 01/01/2021 23:26

If the kids going back to school was a huge experiment, they'd probably want to have some areas with high infections where they did send the kids back, and some geographically similar areas with similar infection rates where they kept them off, so they could compare the effect.

Oh, wait....

Actually, I did consider that they did this, but weighed it up against the idea that the government is random, chaotic and slipshod and decided that was the more likely option.

SatishTheCat · 01/01/2021 23:27

Yes, exactly!

fastwigglylines · 01/01/2021 23:28

From the BBC website

"Early results indicated that the [new variant] virus was spreading more quickly among under-20s, particularly among secondary school age children."

"But the very latest data indicates that it was spreading quickly across all age groups, according to Prof Gandy who was a member of the research team."

So, yes children are more at risk than before - as are we all.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55507012

Fortherosesjoni70 · 01/01/2021 23:28

@Noellodee

If the kids going back to school was a huge experiment, they'd probably want to have some areas with high infections where they did send the kids back, and some geographically similar areas with similar infection rates where they kept them off, so they could compare the effect.

Oh, wait....

Actually, I did consider that they did this, but weighed it up against the idea that the government is random, chaotic and slipshod and decided that was the more likely option.

ha ha ha...yes!
Fortherosesjoni70 · 01/01/2021 23:29

[quote fastwigglylines]From the BBC website

"Early results indicated that the [new variant] virus was spreading more quickly among under-20s, particularly among secondary school age children."

"But the very latest data indicates that it was spreading quickly across all age groups, according to Prof Gandy who was a member of the research team."

So, yes children are more at risk than before - as are we all.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55507012[/quote]
Its because the virus has become better at infecting us all, children included.

PTW1234 · 01/01/2021 23:30

I am scared

hedgehogger1 · 01/01/2021 23:31

Covid wards 'full of children' for first time in pandemic, warn nurses
Clinicians say high levels of nursing vacancies and staff sickness will make it near-impossible to use Nightingale hospitals
By
Patrick Sawer,
SENIOR NEWS REPORTER
1 January 2021 • 7:00pm
Paramedics wearing PPE prepare to remove a patient from an ambulance at The Royal London Hospital on December 31, 2020
Medics are starting to see “whole wards of children” suffering from Covid for the first time during the pandemic, a senior nurse has warned.
Laura Duffell, a matron at King’s College Hospital, London, said the new strain of Covid was affecting children and younger adults with no underlying health conditions in worrying numbers.
She said: “It’s very different. That’s what makes it so much scarier for us as doctors, nurses and porters and everyone else who is working on the front line.
“We have children who are coming in. It was minimally affecting children in the first wave... we now have a whole ward of children here and I know that some of my colleagues are in the same position, where they have a whole ward of children with Covid.”
Ms Duffel, a Royal College of Nursing branch official, described a picture of NHS hospitals close to buckling under the strain of rising numbers of Covid patients.
She told Radio 5 Live on Friday: “20 to 30 year olds with no underlying conditions are coming in. In intensive care you could have up to two or three very sick ventilated patients at the moment, which is far beyond what you should have.
“Some of my colleagues across London have been looking after up to 15 adults on a Covid ward with one health care assistant supporting them, so you don’t stop.”
Senior clinicians have now warned that severe staff shortages mean there is little prospect of the Nightingale hospitals riding to the rescue of the NHS as it struggles to cope with the imminent threat of being overwhelmed by Covid patients.
Consultants and nursing leaders say that high levels of nursing vacancies, coupled with high numbers of staff themselves going off sick with coronavirus or stress will make it near impossible to use the Nightingale hospitals built around the country at the start of the pandemic.
The makeshift hospitals were built at sites across England at an estimated cost of £220million, including in London, Manchester, Bristol, Sunderland, Harrogate, Exeter and Birmingham.
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Of these the Exeter site received its first Covid patients in November while Manchester, Bristol and Harrogate are currently in use for non-Covid patients.
But Mike Adams, the Royal College of Nursing's England director Mike Adams said on Friday that the expectation that the Nightingale hospitals could deliver a significant increase in capacity was "misplaced".
He said: "I have real concerns that the expectation that this mass rollout in capacity can happen is misplaced because there aren't the staff to do it. If we are having to cancel leave to staff these areas, the obvious question is where will the staff come from to open the Nightingales?”
There are already one in eight nursing vacancies, with existing shortages in the type of Intensive Care Unit nurses needed to treat the most severely ill Covid patients, and recent figures showed that one in 10 Covid admissions to hospital are front line health workers - depriving the NHS of badly-needed staff.
Professor David Oliver, a trustee of the Royal College of Physicians and a senior consultant working on Covid wards, told The Telegraph: “Where are the staff going to come from for the Nightingales? The day-to day, hands-on care is carried out by nurses and health care assistants and there already aren’t enough of them.”
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The warnings came as the picture across hospitals struggling to cope with a spike in Covid cases grows ever more serious, with consultants estimating that London hospitals are now operating at more than 200 per cent over capacity and even those hospitals in regions not as badly affected by the current wave working at 150 per cent over capacity.
Medics transport a patient from an ambulance to the Royal London Hospital as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues
Medics transport a patient from an ambulance to the Royal London Hospital as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues CREDIT: HANNAH MCKAY/Reuters
Clinicians say this means beds being placed closer together to make space, increasing the risk of cross infection between patients, and other Covid beds being moved into “every corner” of a hospital. Some major London hospitals have been forced to treat Covid-19 patients in ambulances.
As a result a growing number of non-Covid patients are having to wait longer for potentially life saving treatment for conditions such as cancer.
Department of Health data shows there were 23,813 people in hospital with Covid-19 in the UK as of December 28, the most recent figures - more than at any other point during the pandemic, even during the devastating first wave in March and April.
Some 1,847 of these patients were on ventilators in intensive care units.
There are now real fears NHS hospitals are close to being overwhelmed, with some doctors predicting this could happen when the wave of infections from the Christmas and New Year period hits them in two weeks.
Dr Shondipon Laha, a consultant in critical care medicine and honorary secretary of the Intensive Care Society, described the situation in London hospitals and some parts of the north west, as "dire".
He added: "We are close to being overwhelmed now and we will be overwhelmed soon. We are already at the limits. It's very worrying.”
Dr Laha said that patients would soon have to be transferred beyond their immediate region to areas around the country in order to create space for new admissions.
"Covid patients will soon be piling up in casualty departments because there will be nowhere else to treat them. The second peak we’re going through now in London is going to be massive. Bigger than anything we’ve ever experienced,”
“On top of that some planned operations are having to be delayed because there is no capacity at the moment to deal with them, which means people are not being treated for life threatening conditions such as cancer, including brain and stomach cancers.”
NHS England medical director Stephen Powis has described the Nightingale hospitals as "our insurance policy, there as our last resort".

Fortherosesjoni70 · 01/01/2021 23:33

@PTW1234

I am scared
It is scary but just try to keep your distance, wear a mask and don't have anyone in your house. Keep it in perspective. If you did catch it remember that most people are fine with covid.
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