I fucking knew it. Second vaccine dose.

[NiceGerbil]

News is that people who have had first dose are only getting second 3 months later. Against the guidelines of the org who made the vaccine.

I said this rush to push it out would result in, how are they going to follow up and make sure they get the second?

And here we go. Second dose not organised. UK govt say this is AOK.

FFS. I'd rather they took the time to do it properly. But hey. Pissup in a brewery situation again.

I said a few days ago to DH. Are they properly tracking this to make sure the follow up jab isn't missed?

I was too optimistic. Govt have decided second jab isn't that important.

FFS.

I really hope the strategy works, but there is a danger that we'll end up going round in circles. Whack-a-mole: you immunise people whose immunity drops after a few weeks, so their risk increases while you immunise another bunch, whose immunity starts to fall while you head back to the first bunch etc etc.

Nice analogy about the food, although if everyone gets a tiny bit, they'll soon be hungry again. If you adequately feed a good number who can go and get more food for others, you can sustain that supply. Just an alternative picture.

@trumpisaflump (great name) here:

www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

See figure 3 and the discussion. The protection for the first 3 weeks averages at 52%. The protection for the first week after the second dose is 90.5%. The second dose almost certainly will not have kicked in at that point, so that protection is very likely from the first dose alone.

The graph shows cases against time. The blue is placebo, the red is vaccine. The two run identically for the first 12 days, showing the vaccine is doing nothing. Then, at 12 days, the vaccine line just levels out. Hardly any new cases. As @Eyewhisker says, it's like a switch has been flicked. We don't see a second tweak of that line down 12 days after dose 2, which is again suggestive that much of that immunity relates to dose 1.

What we don't know is what happens at the 21 day point if a booster is not given. That's the unknown. But the JCVI have decided that the risk of immunity dropping dramatically is sufficiently low that delaying that second dose is justified, because it allows twice as many people to have initial protection. Are they right? I don't have the expertise to know, but it seems a reasonable balance of risks.

I'm not saying go out clubbing and snog 100 strangers. But hopefully that is at least somewhat reassuring!

Borrowed but wholeheartedly agree "the focus has changed. We are no longer trying to give a small number of people immunity but trying to give a larger number a fighting chance. I guess we aren’t trying to stop everyone getting covid but reducing death and hospital admission. So I am hopeful. Living in Kent being in an area that is overwhelmed I would love to give everyone a fighting chance."

@WombatChocolate

Why is there so much lack of balance? Significant swearing and abuse hardly adds weight to any argument but makes those speaking look unhinged!

I think some people here are allowing their (justified) dislike of the Tory govt to overwhelm everything. Boris Johnson and the rest are horrid, but they're not the ones making the decision here. It is a gamble, for sure, but could turn out to be a wise one. Or not. We'll see.

I actually don't know what to think about this, as, I actually can understand why they are doing this and a number of doctors and scientists seem to agree. You can't please everyone and no, I don't trust out government in general. But, I'm not ready to condemn them over this one...yet. Hope I won't be eating my words!

Our*

[quote Motorina]@cutebear - please see the links and comments on the previous page. You're misreading the 52% figure.[/quote]
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1327

I'm really annoyed about this too. I was hoping that my mum would be fully protected by February but now I'm not sure. She's been pretty much shielding since the first lockdown and was looking forward to seeing family again. I've also been caring for her rather than having lots of different carers coming in and I can't do it any longer.

I understood it that one dose prevents hospitalisation. So wouldn't it make more sense to vaccinate more people with one and then go back and do the second ? For once this doesn't seem to daft to me

My Mum had a phone call from her GP yesterday afternoon cancelling the appointment tomorrow for the second dose. Zero respect from the government for her and for the GP staff having to spend their day making the phone calls and no doubt dealing with stressed, upset, angry people.

Rapidly increasing infection rates have prompted this decision but don’t let that stop you blaming it on incompetence & having a rant.
Have we had an “all the old people who have had the vaccine are now going to be super spreaders” thread yet? I’m sure it won’t take long.

My Mum had a phone call from her GP yesterday afternoon cancelling the appointment tomorrow for the second dose. Zero respect from the government for her and for the GP staff having to spend their day making the phone calls and no doubt dealing with stressed, upset, angry people. Do you feel any sympathy for the elderly and vulnerable who haven't had the first dose yet and might get some protection earlier. Do you have any respect for the frontline NHS and care staff who haven't managed to get the first dose yet?

@lyinginthegutterstaringatstars

I knew something like this would happen. It always does

What? You mean every time we have a pandemic?

DM is due to have 2nd dose next week I have received 2 text messages advising that ‘local guidance’ is that they are sticking to original plan and DM is to attend as arranged

I think some people here are allowing their (justified) dislike of the Tory govt to overwhelm everything. Boris Johnson and the rest are horrid, but they're not the ones making the decision here. It is a gamble, for sure, but could turn out to be a wise one. Or not. We'll see. I don't think it is just dislike, I think so many people just don't trust them, even people who were originally supporters.

This was Tony Blair's idea, wasn't it, to give as many people as possible one dose.

You’re over reacting.
The haven’t messed up, they’ve changed their minds and made a sensible decision in difficult, ever changing circumstances

@GoldGreen

This decision (gap of 12 weeks) is based on the JCVI recommendation. It is supported by the Chief Medical Officers of all 4 parts of the U.K. These people have more qualifications, PhDs and experience then probably most of Mumsnet combined. I do not understand how nearly everything on Mumsnet can be turned into some evil Tory government conspiracy/cock up. This is an evolving situation. Yes, things will change. If it didn’t the same people would be moaning the gov hadn’t changed the situations.

I agree.

I think it’s a little bit selfish of people to be annoyed they aren’t getting their second dose when plenty of vulnerable people wouldn’t even be getting their first any time soon if this hadn’t been changed.

@ancientgran

My Mum had a phone call from her GP yesterday afternoon cancelling the appointment tomorrow for the second dose. Zero respect from the government for her and for the GP staff having to spend their day making the phone calls and no doubt dealing with stressed, upset, angry people. Do you feel any sympathy for the elderly and vulnerable who haven't had the first dose yet and might get some protection earlier. Do you have any respect for the frontline NHS and care staff who haven't managed to get the first dose yet?

Agree

@ancientgran

I think some people here are allowing their (justified) dislike of the Tory govt to overwhelm everything. Boris Johnson and the rest are horrid, but they're not the ones making the decision here. It is a gamble, for sure, but could turn out to be a wise one. Or not. We'll see. I don't think it is just dislike, I think so many people just don't trust them, even people who were originally supporters.

Same thing really as far as my post is concerned.

Dislike/mistrust of the Tory govt is colouring people's view of this, though I doubt Boris Johnson just came up with it and ordered the medical authorities to go along with it. GB isn't the only country considering this dosage regime.

It’s 100% the right decision, and will save thousands of lives

My (extremely vulnerable) mum, in her 80s, hasn't even had her first dose yet. If those who think delaying the second does is such a bad idea, would they rather my mum had two doses and your (also extremely vulnerable) mum had none? Personally, I'd rather they both had one dose.

@Pyewhacket Not sure why you think it isn’t true. My 83 yr old mother got the call yesterday - was supposed to have the second dose next week - now happening end of Feb.

@GoldGreen

This decision (gap of 12 weeks) is based on the JCVI recommendation. It is supported by the Chief Medical Officers of all 4 parts of the U.K. These people have more qualifications, PhDs and experience then probably most of Mumsnet combined. I do not understand how nearly everything on Mumsnet can be turned into some evil Tory government conspiracy/cock up. This is an evolving situation. Yes, things will change. If it didn’t the same people would be moaning the gov hadn’t changed the situations.

This. Always the assumption the government is ignoring the science and making ridiculous decisions off the cuff.

From the bbc
“ Vaccine numbers are 'a trickle when we needed a flood'
Some experts are backing the UK's strategy of delaying the second vaccine dose to speed up the distribution of the first doses.

Prof David Salisbury, a former director of immunisation at the Department of Health, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he understood it was "inconvenient" to cancel appointments but said it would "save lives".

“The number vaccinated so far is realistically a trickle when we needed a flood," he said.

“Every time we give a second dose right now, we are holding that back from someone who is likely - if they get coronavirus - to die and much more likely to die than somebody who has already had a single dose.

“I just think think it’s so clear that this is what we should be doing”. “