What does your case rate graph look like?

[PrincessNutNuts]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

We've got a dip on the updated version!

That's very similar to my area PrincessNutNuts.

Tier 4 since 20 Dec.

Fingers crossed that has made a difference.

Middlesbrough
Was doing ok but DH says the big uptake overnight Covid admissions have been worrying in the past 2 days.

@AKissAndASmile

Looks like tier 3 is working?

YES. Thank goodness. But will that continue now with the new more transmissible strain? Let's hope - but I am worried.

I'm not sure that I understand it correctly but if the new variant is prevalent in your area, it spreads easier, so will reach more people that it can make very ill faster, so admissions and deaths will take off faster than we've previously seen. I think from what I've read and heard that's what's happening in areas like mine who are only recently Tier 4

Ours was higher in the autumn. (It was mostly students.)

@Persipan

Ours was higher in the autumn. (It was mostly students.)

It is very interesting the different shapes we've all got.

It reassures me that we can affect it. Because various factors clearly do.

We were level 3 and brought it down (now level 2) but it is starting to climb again.

@PrincessNutNuts think you're where I am....

[quote Wilkolampshade]@PrincessNutNuts think you're where I am....[/quote]

@MrsFezziwig that more people were mingling during those times? And that schools maybe have less to do with case rises than we might think? IDK... it was just an observation.

What was your point in asking?

@OrangeSamphire

My point in asking was that if the positive test peaks were at half term and Christmas (or 20th December on the graph) then the infections causing those peaks would surely have occurred a minimum of 7-8 days before those dates (5 days to incubate, a day or two to show symptoms, a day to book a test) placing them towards the end of the in-school periods, so more likely that schools were responsible for the rise in cases rather than less?

@Lucked

Here are the current admission trends for influenza. Part of the reason there are not too many excess deaths ( yet - we all know deaths follow several weeks behind a rise in cases) is because there is virtually no flu this year as COVID measures and reduced travel meaning it hasn’t spread around the world.

Also most people with COVID in hospital won’t die but they still need care and beds and the very sick ones are often in an ITU or high dependency bed for a long time.

Do you happen to know what the mortality rate or survival rate is for people who are in hospital with Covid?

I think we both know you were digging to see if a Cornish poster would blame tourists for the peaks.

Well I won’t.

@OrangeSamphire*
I think we both know you were digging to see if a Cornish poster would blame tourists for the peaks.

What a weird post! Actually only one of us knows that, as I hadn’t even considered the tourist issue (and as I said in my PP, the peak infections didn’t actually occur in the holiday period) - I’m just fed up of people trying to deny that schools have a major hand in transmitting infections.

Right. Whatever you say. My first post didn’t even mention schools.

I'm just north of the tier 4 area, most people here seem to think we'll go into tier 4. The school holidays do seem to have a correlation with a fall in cases.

Right. Whatever you say. My first post didn’t even mention schools.

”The peaks coincide with October half term and the Christmas holidays”.

I thought it reasonable to assume that when you mentioned “half term” and “Christmas holidays” you were talking about schools, which you then confirm in your later post.

When I posted, it was a simple observation. You came in with an aggressive ‘what’s your point?’ Why, I don’t know.

Stupidly I thought about my original observation and tried to attach some kind of meaning to it in response to your aggressive question. Wish I hadn’t bothered.

Guess I’m just fed up of posters gaslighting about the situation in schools. Apologies if that wasn’t your intention.

It really wasn’t! It was an observation. I like graphs, patterns, data. It’s interesting. I was a bit taken aback and set off footing by being asked what my point was. Others on the thread were making observations without being questioned. I felt a little targeted I suppose.

The school holidays do seem to have a correlation with a fall in cases.

I would think that could just be that people are choosing to not test if they have mild symptoms. If people are becoming infected right up to the end of school and continue testing in the same way then you'd expect there to be a 10 day delay after schools close before cases started to go down as all the infections from the last week of school become apparent and are identified by testing.

North East currently tier 3 but expecting that to change today.

Actually though now I've looked at the numbers on the axis we are way behind the Tier 4 areas in terms of numbers so maybe not 🤷‍♀️

WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants

Sorry just noticed your question about current hospital mortality for COVID. A lot depends on the age of the cohort predominantly affected in the wave but this relatively recent.

From the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: prospective observational cohort study
“ Hospital mortality
In-hospital mortality in patients admitted in March and early April fell from 30-35% to 10-15% for patients admitted late July and August.”

I know in the first wave my hospital was 30% but we don’t get such detailed daily updates at the moment but it has significantly reduced.