Covid Predictions for 2021

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Behold! A New Year cometh! What do you think will come our way in 2021? Intrigued to hear people’s opinions, I’ll go first...

1. Possible full UK lockdown with school closures once the devastation from Christmas mixing becomes apparent early January. We may see harsher restrictions come in to play too.

2. Vaccine successes and failures. With so many companies coming forward with various concoctions it is a given that there will be issues with at least some of them. I have a feeling the virus may well adapt too. Vaxxed people letting their guard down only to find themselves not as immune as first hoped.

3. More mutations particularly as people who have already had it get reinfected and pass it on. The odds seem stacked against us so I’m expecting a nastier mutation in 2021.

4. A fourth National Lockdown possibly around May/ June depending how long the third lasts for.

5. Furlough scheme extended indefinitely perhaps morphed into a universal basic income once it becomes evident certain industries will not be returning for a very long time (theatres, clubs, live music venues etc)

6. High street catastrophe following another longer hard lockdown.

7. Unrest as people split into believers and non believer camps. I expect more prolific calling out those who refuse to wear masks or comply with restrictions.

8. A breakthrough or realisation that may shift everyone’s perception and understanding significantly.

9. Widespread NHS recruitment drive to deal with new reality of constant covid patients. The key to future lockdowns being less drastic is a more robust NHS.

I would add that people are mortal, therefore are going to die of something . There are always deaths in care homes, especially at this time of year of the flu. The excess deaths figure is important, but one that is rarely mentioned.

@Nellodee

In my experience, you have two types of pessimists, those who support and those against lockdown. Those against lockdown tend to be the ones saying “what if we never have a vaccine/ what if the virus mutates/governments are going to use this to keep us in lockdown forever”. Those who think lockdown is necessary tend to be more “If we release lockdown too soon, rates will surge/ the nhs will be overwhelmed/we will have more avoidable deaths/the alternative would be even worse”. It’s rare you have pessimists that exist in both groups.

That's how I see it too. The pessimists early last year who were saying we may never get a vaccine were often the same ones demanding an end to lockdown to just get on with it. They were also the ones calling people who wanted a more cautious approach pessimists!

@Thewiseoneincognito

Any more predictions? I’m not being sarcastic, you’re clearly on the ball with this. When do you predict normality? Is it never returning now? 🔮

I really hope they do drive NHS recruitment.

Also what is this perceptive breakthrough you speak of?

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@tobee those who said coronavirus vaccines won’t happen for a long time meant ones that actually work 😐

This jab is not as effective as people are made to believe and is absolutely not the key to this situation. We can revisit this comment in a few months though just to be certain....[/quote]
Totally agree with you, OP. As for people getting angry with those who are realistic, what’s the point of kidding yourself only to be disappointed further down the line. That seems to be Boris’ tactic too. Promise it’s all going to be over, then backtrack. Psychologically, that has a really bad effect on people and can only last so long. It’s better to be realistic.

Complete protection from risk isn’t ever achievable and we shouldn’t imagine that it is. That’s why we need to look at excess deaths rather than Covid deaths, as a PP said. It will be very good when vulnerable people are vaccinated and they face only a mild case of the virus. Then, we are likely to be able to move out of restrictions. People are still likely to get ill but not to the extent that they will need hospital treatment and that is okay. Being ill occasionally is a part of life.

Boris? Who's using Boris as a guage for what happens next? Nobody on this thread.

I'd predict that this government will find a way to mess up the delivery of the vaccines but I fear they already have.

Usually I would predict that they outsource it to a Tory donor and it goes to shit and costs 100 times what it should.

This time I think deaths in the 3 months between first and second doses of vaccine will become A Thing.

Or worse still, that the second dose bottle neck that will have built up by April means people never get a second dose. Or they put off starting first doses for groups 10 onwards until August.

Maybe they'll privatise and outsource the second doses?!

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is what this current Cabinet do after all...

I don't understand why people wail 'scaremongering' and brand OP's as pessimists when they list a perfectly reasonable set of predictions based on the previous 12 months 🤷🏻‍♀️

Wailing? 😁
I don't see anyone wailing.

@SideboardOfDoom

Ok, I’ll join in the wild, groundless speculation:

1. Most people will get the vaccine.

1. The number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths will fall significantly.

1. The remaining case numbers can be dealt with within existing capacity of the NHS.

1. Restrictions lifted in stages from around Spring 2021.

1. Economy screwed but begins to recover from second quarter of 2021.

This version can still work

@FourTeaFallOut

Boris? Who's using Boris as a guage for what happens next? Nobody on this thread.

I meant that he’s doing what some people seem to be wanting - relentless positivity and then forced to backtrack when it’s evident that it’s not going to happen. I’m seeing a lot of reliance placed on the vaccine as the magic solution and I’m not sure it will provide that. Global warming and overpopulation also means that we’re moving into an era where pandemics will be more common than in the past. Given that Covid kills very few compared to other diseases, it could be much much worse. I think we’ll probably have to learn to live with Covid rather than imagine it will magically vanish and hopefully strengthen our resources so that we can cope if something else comes along in a few years.

Well you can rest assured my optimism is not at all not informed by manic headlines.

I suspect that the vaccine roll out is going to be yet another shit show. Surely no good can come of giving one dose of a vaccine that is designed to have two doses in a specific time frame? I think it’s a joke that BJ is boasting that we’ve jabbed more people than any other country, when we may not be doing it as we should.

I’ll gladly eat humble pie when all clinically vulnerable people have had their second jab and are out boozing and having nice dinners in their local pubs!

@Thewiseoneincognito predicting a January lockdown at the end of December was hardly ground breaking.

Your use of 😀suggests you enjoy predicting gloom and causing others anxiety / fear.

Do we know what this afternoon's press conference is about?

A more virulent strain perhaps?

@4cats2kids

I suspect that the vaccine roll out is going to be yet another shit show. Surely no good can come of giving one dose of a vaccine that is designed to have two doses in a specific time frame? I think it’s a joke that BJ is boasting that we’ve jabbed more people than any other country, when we may not be doing it as we should.

Most countries don't count people as vaccinated until they've had both.

This jab? Which jab do you mean op? We have 3 jabs approved here in the U.K. so far. All have different levels of effectiveness.

@4cats2kids

I’ll gladly eat humble pie when all clinically vulnerable people have had their second jab and are out boozing and having nice dinners in their local pubs!

Same.

My parents have had a really rough year shielding and nothing would make me happier.

But we've had a year of our government making bafflingly damaging decisions that have led to one of the Top 5 worst covid death tolls in the world. Literally 190/195 countries are handling covid better than we are. So I have lost all faith in them entirely.

I read somewhere today that 165 countries have total covid deaths over the whole pandemic that are lower than ours for the last two weeks.

Our government is one of the worst 5 in the world at keeping its citizens alive during covid.

I feel some posters will be absolutely delighted if the government role out of the vaccine is a shit show!

Or even roll out

I disagree with it becoming nastier, I see it continuing to mutate to something less deadly

Yeah it's really interesting reading this thread now and not even seeing the OP's predictions as pessimistic! In fact at this point, Universal Basic Income and a more robust NHS seems like quite a good outcome, all things considered.

I read somewhere today that 165 countries have total covid deaths over the whole pandemic that are lower than ours for the last two weeks

Alarming.

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

I disagree with it becoming nastier, I see it continuing to mutate to something less deadly

That's not what was said on this evening's briefing