Covid Predictions for 2021

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Behold! A New Year cometh! What do you think will come our way in 2021? Intrigued to hear people’s opinions, I’ll go first...

1. Possible full UK lockdown with school closures once the devastation from Christmas mixing becomes apparent early January. We may see harsher restrictions come in to play too.

2. Vaccine successes and failures. With so many companies coming forward with various concoctions it is a given that there will be issues with at least some of them. I have a feeling the virus may well adapt too. Vaxxed people letting their guard down only to find themselves not as immune as first hoped.

3. More mutations particularly as people who have already had it get reinfected and pass it on. The odds seem stacked against us so I’m expecting a nastier mutation in 2021.

4. A fourth National Lockdown possibly around May/ June depending how long the third lasts for.

5. Furlough scheme extended indefinitely perhaps morphed into a universal basic income once it becomes evident certain industries will not be returning for a very long time (theatres, clubs, live music venues etc)

6. High street catastrophe following another longer hard lockdown.

7. Unrest as people split into believers and non believer camps. I expect more prolific calling out those who refuse to wear masks or comply with restrictions.

8. A breakthrough or realisation that may shift everyone’s perception and understanding significantly.

9. Widespread NHS recruitment drive to deal with new reality of constant covid patients. The key to future lockdowns being less drastic is a more robust NHS.

I think we will be starting to get back to normal by the spring. A substantial amount of people should hopefully have been vaccinated by then and the warmer weather will help with people spending more time outside, having windows open and the return of natural vitamin D.

As they say the darkest hour is just before dawn, the next couple of months I can see being horrendous. The severity of that will depend largely on what happens with schools next week.

Anyone who hates this pessimism, come on over to the Good News threads, where we discuss positive science for vaccines, treatments and behaviours.
It is most uplifting and grounded very much in reality.

I think we are in for a rough first quarter - worse than 2020 but I do think with the vaccine roll-out and better weather things will start to improve around Easter.

Vaccine developers have already said that tweaking vaccines to adapt to mutations is not a big job - the hard work has been done.

Sadly, I think that it will take a lot longer for the economy to recover and things like mask-wearing will remain, much like it had in Asian countries post-SARS.

I'm desperate for music festivals and concerts to return, but I feel those are a way off, another year or two perhaps.

It won't be an overnight improvement, it'll happen over the course of the year.

To be honest, I can't see why everyone is complaining about so-called predictions which have some element of possibility in them but are only one set of possibilities after all.

What is certainly true is that this time last year, looking at the new 2020 year ahead of us, no-one could have possibly imagined COVID and all that followed. Given that, what on earth will 2021 bring? Being prepared might help.

Realistically, thinking through a whole range of scenarios, from good to bad, is the only way we have of preparing ourselves for what we cannot predict. If that makes people have "raised stress levels" no wonder folk are finding the whole situation stressful to the point it's affecting their mental health. Surely it's wiser to think ahead?

Looking on the bright side eh OP?

I think things will start improving by easter

January will be dominated with stories about hospitals failing to cope in worse and worse ways. The government will introduce tier five, with some measure of school closures. Infections will still rise in tier four places and the hospitals will get worse and worse in a domino effect. By late January, most of the country will be in either tier four or five and a national lockdown will be called. February will see the worst of the cases and some horrific news stories, with cases beginning to decrease over March. By April, we will begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel and we will fine tune restrictions to allow some level of reopening, still stricter than anything we have now. By May, this effect will become more pronounced, with a combination of naturally caught immunity and vaccinations, combined with the seasonal effect starting to bring respite. People will start discussing whether or not they will be able to go on holiday in the summer. They will - but many of the major attractions will have restrictions and booking lists for entry. Over summer, what remains of the hospitality sector will begin to reopen. In September, there will be a slight upward blip in cases, but the new nasal spray vaccination for children will make this short lived. We well have a final winter of mask wearing, but deaths that winter we’ll be especially low, as take up off the combined flu COVID vaccine augur in the lowest flu year for a generation. Spring 2022 will see us licking our wounds and trying to heal our country.

Christ, is this a wind up?

Hopefully I’m completely wrong. I’ll be overjoyed to be made to look like an idiot.

I predict another roaring 20’s once lockdown/tiers have ended.
Actually that isn’t my prediction but I like the sound of it so I’m going with it

@AnxiousAlpaca

Oh god why do I look at posts like this? It sends my anxiety into overdrive

If it's any help, remind yourself that the OP has no more of a clue than you or anyone else here. She's just a random MNer.

OP - Stop winding people up.

My prediction - tens of millions vaccinated by early Spring. Weekly excess deaths down to very low levels by then.

Wow! Arn't you a little Ray of sunshine op.

@starfro - I like your version

Actually I was going to say what Noellodee said but probably not put it quite so well. I do think COVID will be here to stay with until atleast 2022 with things getting better as we go. I also think February will be the worst of what’s to come. The government seem keen on trying to keep primary schools open and stagger secondary. But I think if that’s the way they go it probably will lead to a lockdown Feb/March with things getting better by the Summer. People I know who were laid back about COVID have starting taking it more seriously because family members have been lost. The anxious side of me worries we may actually get close to what Italy was like but the rational side me reminds me there is a vaccine and more knowledge now. We do need to be positive for the future but unfortunately the present for many of us isn’t great due to the people we have lost.

I predict good things actually.

The vaccine will come, it will be a shit few months but at least we may avoid the school run in driving rain and winds. Also although lockdown may have been easier in spring/summer being cosy at home in fluffy socks does have its benefits.

Brexit will happen, this is a shit show we all know BUT we do have a deal and this can only be a Good Thing. And like it or not (I don't) it may be a good thing for people in some industries as it will drive the wages up, because although someone Eastern European may be able to afford to work for £70 a day and send £60 a day home, most people who live in the UK can't. We are in the construction industry, this happens, the industry has been flooded with cheap labour and gang masters for years.

A certain % of the population has amassed savings this year, they will want to spend it next, stimulating the economy.

High streets and retail have struggled for years, covid has accelerated that process but it will change and adapt quicker, create more jobs in changed roles. Small, reactive businesses will thrive and we may see the end of the retail giants that have hogged everything for years. Ditto pubs, who have been run into the ground by leaseholders.

Things will be shit for a while, but it will get better. Different but better.

I believe @Thewiseoneincognito to be a troll. A sophisticated and eloquent one, who dishes up the worst prognoses they can dream up with quite some flair, but a troll nonetheless.

I’ll join too.

1. Tier 5 to be brought in with school closures from January for the areas currently with the highest rates. Schools to remain open in areas with rates that are not increasing and with the lowest cases of the new variant.

1. Oxford vaccine rollout to commence and the higher number of vaccinated people leads to fewer cases hospitalised, fewer death and less strain on the NHS so tier 5 & 4 gradually become less needed.

1. Universities go online from January because returning students is just a stupid and dangerous thought.

1. Unfortunately more redundancies because even as restrictions lift it will take a while for normality to resume.

1. By the end of the year the highest restrictions may be tier 2 but we will have been able to enjoy our summer with relatively low cases as people spend more time outside.

The light is at the end of the tunnel

A difficult two months ahead but once vaccinations are being done at a very fast pace, all will go back to normal.
Just me

@BlueBlancmange a troll you say? 👹👹👹 is this what we call people who have a sense of realism these days?

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@BlueBlancmange a troll you say? 👹👹👹 is this what we call people who have a sense of realism these days?[/quote]
I don't think some one who was simply a realist would exhibit so much relish in what they post.

@LemonSherbetFancies

A difficult two months ahead but once vaccinations are being done at a very fast pace, all will go back to normal. Just me

No reason not to believe it. The NHS will collapse from lack of money if we carry on like this.

We are in for a rough ride until April, the better weather and the vaccine roll out will be the end of Covid lockdowns.

Agree. Shifting between higher tiers or a full lockdown and then as the vaccine is rolled out / better weather starts, things will become less restricted. I will still hope that things will remain better by next winter, although with social distancing, mask wearing in place still, with perhaps smaller, localised flair ups.

Judging by the past year OP’s predictions don’t sound outlandish. The vaccine rollout will be slow due to the increased pressure on the health service. I also think the virus will work hard to mutate so that the vaccine is not effective.

Yes I’m pessimistic but this is all based on what’s happened so far.

I think education will eventually be blended learning, I see this being the only viable way forward.

Expecting loads of these type of OPs now, all vying for worst case scenario, 😂😂😂

Omg 😳

I think we'll have a rough start to 2021 with a tougher lockdown for many of us, rising cases and hospital admissions and unfortunately more deaths. At the same time the Oxford vaccine will be approved and vaccinations will start in earnest as the Pfizer vaccine supply is used up.

Schools will be highly disrupted for the first part of the year with many students off and teachers continuing to struggle. More online learning for those at Uni.

Mental health continues to plummet for many through the dark winter months.

Economically it will be difficult with some businesses going under, but mask manufacturers will still be selling them like hot cakes.

More angst on social media with deepening divisions about how the pandemic should be handled.

Spring weather will bring a welcome relief as people look forward to lessening of restrictions and the ability to visit immunised relatives again.

Rishi Sunak's hair begins going grey at a remarkable rate as he struggles with the country's financial state.