Covid Predictions for 2021

[Thewiseoneincognito]

Behold! A New Year cometh! What do you think will come our way in 2021? Intrigued to hear people’s opinions, I’ll go first...

1. Possible full UK lockdown with school closures once the devastation from Christmas mixing becomes apparent early January. We may see harsher restrictions come in to play too.

2. Vaccine successes and failures. With so many companies coming forward with various concoctions it is a given that there will be issues with at least some of them. I have a feeling the virus may well adapt too. Vaxxed people letting their guard down only to find themselves not as immune as first hoped.

3. More mutations particularly as people who have already had it get reinfected and pass it on. The odds seem stacked against us so I’m expecting a nastier mutation in 2021.

4. A fourth National Lockdown possibly around May/ June depending how long the third lasts for.

5. Furlough scheme extended indefinitely perhaps morphed into a universal basic income once it becomes evident certain industries will not be returning for a very long time (theatres, clubs, live music venues etc)

6. High street catastrophe following another longer hard lockdown.

7. Unrest as people split into believers and non believer camps. I expect more prolific calling out those who refuse to wear masks or comply with restrictions.

8. A breakthrough or realisation that may shift everyone’s perception and understanding significantly.

9. Widespread NHS recruitment drive to deal with new reality of constant covid patients. The key to future lockdowns being less drastic is a more robust NHS.

What's the "it's over" mob?

Also, isn't global pandemic a tautology? This always bugs me, lol...

What's the "it's over" mob?

Perhaps it's the Covid version of the Ant Hill Mob

@Delatron

I don’t think anyone thought that in Dec 2020 we were in a good place. So not sure the point of this thread? I don’t think even the vaccines had been developed.

How far we’ve come in just 8 months!

First jabs were being given in December, it was all hail the vaccine we are saved. Anyone that said otherwise was scaremongering. Here we are Sept 2021 and the papers talk of circuit breakers...

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

Because I believe it's important to look back upon previous predictions and reflect upon what we got right (see the OP), and what we got wrong (see the "it's over" mob).

Will you be reflecting on your predictions @NannyAndJohn as I believe the majority fall in the 'what we got wrong' category?

Oh I don't think so.

I've always said that herd immunity is nigh on impossible with Delta and that we'll be facing a difficult end to the year.

My point is @Whichjab I think in Dec 2020 most people thought we were in for a rough ride. Obviously it would and did take a long time to roll out vaccinations.

Papers say all sorts of things. Surprisingly many of it isn’t true..

I've always said that herd immunity is nigh on impossible with Delta and that we'll be facing a difficult end to the year.

You also predicted 100K cases per day in June, July and probably August as well or has that slipped your mind?

@Delatron

Missed the part: ‘all restrictions to be dropped in July 2021 and no huge increase in deaths’.

This!

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

I've always said that herd immunity is nigh on impossible with Delta and that we'll be facing a difficult end to the year.

You also predicted 100K cases per day in June, July and probably August as well or has that slipped your mind?

There's a difference between predictions and projections.

But I've gone over that multiple times.

There's a difference between predictions and projections.

But I've gone over that multiple times.

😂 😂 😂

Will you be explaining about noisy data again? I can’t wait.

Nanny and John always comes on these threads to spread their negative views. Everything is a catastrophe, etc etc. It gets really boring to read after a while.

Truth be told it really wasn’t divination or tea leaves, I was simply seeing and interpreting the wider picture, not just here but around the world.

I didn’t quite nail the ‘everyone will abandon face masks and social distancing because they believed BJs roadmap hot air’. But I suppose point 2 does mention vaxxed people letting their guard down and being surprised they’re not as immune as first hoped.

Perhaps the shift in people’s perception is still yet to come, right now so many believe there is no big threat to them anymore that everything is safe. I have a feeling this autumn winter will be quite the revelation.

There's a difference between predictions and projections.

But I've gone over that multiple times.

Do you ever admit you're wrong?!?

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

There's a difference between predictions and projections.

But I've gone over that multiple times.

Do you ever admit you're wrong?!?

The projections didn't quite come off, no.

But they gave the most likely outcome given the data at the time.

And even the "let it rip" Health Secretary agreed with me.

In @NannyAndJohn defence the 100k per day was also projected and mentioned plenty of times in the press, fortunately we dodged a bullet but at what cost long term?

Using this to continually diminish any of their points about where we are now or what is to possibly come is tiresome.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Truth be told it really wasn’t divination or tea leaves, I was simply seeing and interpreting the wider picture, not just here but around the world.

I didn’t quite nail the ‘everyone will abandon face masks and social distancing because they believed BJs roadmap hot air’. But I suppose point 2 does mention vaxxed people letting their guard down and being surprised they’re not as immune as first hoped.

Perhaps the shift in people’s perception is still yet to come, right now so many believe there is no big threat to them anymore that everything is safe. I have a feeling this autumn winter will be quite the revelation.

Nothing has ever been "safe" though has it? There have always been threats, like flu and chicken pox and getting in a car and getting out of bed etc etc etc....

@siestalady do you wear a seatbelt, follow the speed limit and use your headlights at night?
Do you avoid anyone with shingles or chicken pox if they tell you they have it?
Do you wait for the green man before crossing at a busy junction?
Do you wear oven gloves to take the roasting tin out of the oven?

See you’re right, nothing is 100% safe but we take as many precautions as possible to minimise our risk.

Our attitude to Covid has gone from taking precautions to doing nothing at all except rely purely on vaccination. A little like knowing how to drive but driving on the wrong side of the motorway and expecting not to hit anything.

we take as many precautions as possible

We don’t, though. We take as many precautions as we consider compatible with our basic wish to live our lives.

So we could avoid driving altogether to cut down car accidents and reduce the health harms of air pollution. But we don’t.

We could insist that people with chicken pox or shingles are put in mandatory quarantine, like some countries did/do with covid cases. But we don’t. We don’t even routinely vaccinate against chicken pox.

We could make it against the law to cross a road except at a pedestrian crossing with a green light. But we don’t.

We could avoid hot food forever to reduce the risk of burning ourselves or of causing house fires due to cooking (which is the cause of many of them). But we don’t.

So we could keep masks and distancing and bans on household mixing in place for covid indefinitely. But we won’t, for the same reason we don’t do all those other things.

See you’re right, nothing is 100% safe but we take as many precautions as possible to minimise our risk.

That’s absolute claptrap though. The biggest thing we could do to keep ourselves ‘safe’ is to maintain a healthy weight and keep fit.

Yet we’re one of the most obese nations in the world.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@siestalady do you wear a seatbelt, follow the speed limit and use your headlights at night?
Do you avoid anyone with shingles or chicken pox if they tell you they have it?
Do you wait for the green man before crossing at a busy junction?
Do you wear oven gloves to take the roasting tin out of the oven?

See you’re right, nothing is 100% safe but we take as many precautions as possible to minimise our risk.

Our attitude to Covid has gone from taking precautions to doing nothing at all except rely purely on vaccination. A little like knowing how to drive but driving on the wrong side of the motorway and expecting not to hit anything.[/quote]
Its not at all like never taking a driving lesson then driving on the wrong side of the motorway and expecting not to hit anything - that would almost certainly would result in severe injury/death.

For the vast, vast majority of the people savvy enough to take up the offer of vaccination, it'll be a mild illness.

Of course, avoid people who have it - just like you would any other virus.

There are proportionate precautions - (avoid people who have it) -and then there are disproportionate precautions (shut down society again).

@GoldenOmber you’re right we only do as much as we are willing to do.

The problem is Covid has the upper hand, we just haven’t realised it yet. Like trying to tame a wild tiger because we want it to be a Tabby.

"The problem is Covid has the upper hand, we just haven’t realised it yet. Like trying to tame a wild tiger because we want it to be a Tabby."

?

@Peteycat

"The problem is Covid has the upper hand, we just haven’t realised it yet. Like trying to tame a wild tiger because we want it to be a Tabby."

?

You'll understand what it means very shortly, I'd imagine.

@Peteycat I’m disappointed, I’d have thought Pete, with cat in your name you’d have got the analogy.

@NannyAndJohn You'll understand what it means very shortly, I'd imagine.

Is that a threat or a promise? You sound very hopeful, either way.

@siestalady I don’t see any threat or suggestion hope in that sentence at all.

I suppose this thread will be bumped again later in the year so we can assess just how well we’re doing taming our house tiger.

Here pussy pussy 🐅