Schools to open as planned in Jan, says Michael Gove.

[DonLewis]

Breaking news.

I can't help but think this is madness.

They don’t need a test and release for asymptomatic - that’s for contacts which over time will massively reduce

Hahahahahahahaha

They won’t. Us for them have released the bots on Twitter. That is the biggest clue yet. I wonder who funds them. They are attracting attention but not for the reasons they want. Anyone not affiliated from them can see what they are demanding is bonkers.

Ah ok I’m talking about the once per week tests for monitoring only

Re contacts those numbers will reduce

In Liverpool even at pur highest peak most schools only had 3/4 cases and even then didn’t consider whole year as contacts (that’s another issue I won’t go in to)

In dds school she has 100% attendance and ds has missed 4 days

Over time with testing those contacts will reduce hugely

No school needs to awns whole year home

No way has a child has contact with every child in year within 2m - they need to monitor who’s sat where etc

I’ve explained this on another thread but here seating is plotted and kids don’t chose their seats - they are sat next to same kids across scabred classes to minimise contacts so ds has a postive case in his class but still wasn’t sent home as on opposite sides

Shared

Pasta, it will go like this.

Sometime in Week 1, a child will test positive.

That will generate, say, 60 initial close contacts. They will be tested. Out of the group, 5 will have been asymptomatic, so if the tests were accurate (which they won't be), there should be 5 more posities. say there is 1. That generates another 20 close contacts.

Only the positive cases (2) go home. The next day goes OK. the day after, a sibling of someone in the first year group tests postitive, as does someone who catches the same bus. Now the school is processing 150 tests a day, but of course all of those students are still in school, so by the end of the week there have been a further 4 cases, so the testing number goes up to 400.

Over the weekend, family members of 4 more cases become positive (pcr tests0 so their children are tested. they too are positive, which adds another hundred or so to the original tally of tests. But of course, everyone is still in school except those 'proper' positives, so with the inaccurate tests there are still asymptomatic positives circulating...

And so on. Yes, eventually, everyone will have had Covid, a several will have long Covid, but the testing will drop down a bit....maybe by May?

Thanks @Pastanred , yes she did say the test was a few minutes it was the whole admin side , waiting for results that took the time. Like you say I’m sure that will improve over time. I am just still incredulous that this can be set up in 24 hours when staff return to school. All with a power point video to train staff / volunteers.
I really do think mass testing is the way forward but it’s going to take time and at least some investment in trained staff. I would be glad to be wrong though as anything that keeps kids and staff in school safely is worth doing.

[The only thing is,. because the tests are SO inaccurate AND wll be being administered by novices (which will make them even less than the advertised 48% accurate), there will APPEAR to be fewer positives initially. We'll just pay for that down the line with exploding numbers of cases later]

Yes I’ve seen how bad they are here on livwrpool as we’ve all had them many times

On the Mersey testing site it says for every 7 positive 4 are false which is why they then have to go for pcr so false both sides really

I know several who tested positive on lft then negative on pcr

Plus there’s only a legal requirement to isolate or you test positive on pcr which I only read on the gov site earlier 🤷‍♀️

I think the main worry will be symptomatic kids being sent in cos they’re ‘getting tested anyway’ which will have opposite affect

Instead of parents keeping kids at home and arranging a test they’ll just awns them in as they know they’ll be tested at some point that week

Really symptomatica should be tested with pcr - they were in Liverpool

Michael Gove has always had children’s best interests at heart and knows lots about education.

Sage advising government to close schools but parents will still be fined/threatened with legal action for not sending their children in?! Wtaf!

@Beebityboo

Sage advising government to close schools but parents will still be fined/threatened with legal action for not sending their children in?! Wtaf!

& then there's some of us parents who have had DC out of school for 6+ weeks since September, not due to keeping them off. Due to the DC having to isolate and/or the school/class having to close - just 1 DC. The pre-schooler had to isolate for 11 days in September. The other DC hasn't had to isolate yet but I know the parents who suspected covid weren't having the children tested anyway.

It's a mess & still threatening fines, when this new strain is so unknown is absolutely appalling. Over 41,000 cases today & I don't believe for a minute that everyone who needed to test has done so. I know of a few people who decided they'd wait to see if their symptoms disappeared whilst schools / work etc were closed.

They’ll be many missed cases eg my test from last Wednesday isn’t back which means none of my contacts have been informed 🤷‍♀️ I’m asymptomatic and was tested as routine so don’t have to isolate but you see what I mean loads passing it on right now

I think that’s actually a really good point about parents sending in symptomatic kids because it’s the easiest way to get them tested. I hadn’t thought of that, but there are absolutely plenty of parents who will do that.

My school “nurse” is always complaining about the kids who go to her with injuries that they think may be broken bones that they did the night before, with parents having told their kids “go and see the school nurse if it’s still bothering you in the morning” rather than take a trip to A and E on the evening. I use inverted commas because she’s first aid trained but not a qualified nurse, not meaning it as any kind of insult.

We're slowly boiled frogs, having to put up with utter nonsense for so long, the whole desks facing forward debacle, jenny harries, we are app safe, teachers are at no more risk than anyone else.

It's incremental smoke, mirrors, lies, misinformation, lack of action...

I'm afraid to Say, sending children back to school next month will be like sending those troops over the top in the first world war to be slaughtered by guns armed with swords.

@PandemicPavolova

We're slowly boiled frogs, having to put up with utter nonsense for so long, the whole desks facing forward debacle, jenny harries, we are app safe, teachers are at no more risk than anyone else.

It's incremental smoke, mirrors, lies, misinformation, lack of action...

I'm afraid to Say, sending children back to school next month will be like sending those troops over the top in the first world war to be slaughtered by guns armed with swords.

Absolutely.

I know this is one of those "my cousin's hamster's wife says..."

But...

My client has a close friend who works in Govt and apparently at the meeting yesterday the PHE, NHS, Sage, etc were adamant that schools need to close for a Jan lockdown (unclear if regional but seemed to imply national).

So irrespective of what Gove said a closure is possible...obviously they are fighting it out between them as per the papers so depends who 'wins' - Gav or Hancock.

Nightmare for all concerned either way though let's be honest. No decision leads to a great outcome in this scenario.

By this point I have learned to assume that whatever BoJo/Gove/No10 spokesman says, 2 weeks later the opposite will be happening.

But one choice will lead to less deaths and one more. Seems quite simple to me. So kids can enjoy an education the future they need to go remote learning for a few weeks. Because I for one am leaving the profession if I'm made to go back into a place with 2,000 people not distanced or wearing masks. I've had enough now.

I have a 6 year old only child. DH and I both work. Not being able to send him to school for a few weeks/months would be unremittingly grim all round. But... we are on the border of tier 4, the local hospital's ICU is already full, and schools are the one thing left that can make a big difference to transmission rates. So I hope they DON'T have everyone back in as before supported by unreliable lateral flow testing. And I hope they havd home learning for primaries as well as secondaries. The TA in DS's class is of a certain age, with asthma. My DH is nearly 50, overweight with health issues - not all parents of KS1 kids are fit health young things in their 20s and 30s. Their health and (worst case scenario) lives, and those of the many teachers and parents like them, are worth the pain of most children having to have a few weeks out of school, as long as the socially vulnerable kids can go in of course. And I hope I would still say that if DH and I WERE fit healthy young things in our 20s/early 30s.

Comparisons with WW1 are utterly ridiculous - 41 million casualties (20 million dead) compared with a virus that many people will never know they had and well over 95 per cent will recover from? Utter hysteria.

I hope Gove is right. I am already tier 4 but would hate schools again.

Would hate schools to close I mean.