Schools to open as planned in Jan, says Michael Gove.

[DonLewis]

Breaking news.

I can't help but think this is madness.

@Agoodbriskwalk

Here's what will happen:

They'll keep primary schools open so that they can keep spouting their 'prioritising education' (while doing nothing) bullshit.

The rates won't go down enough. That's because hundreds of people will still be mixing every day, with on social distancing. And positive cases will be spread FURTHER in schools due to the 48% accurate tests that are going to be used to replace isolation of contacts. In the meantime, people will continue with sleepovers and playdates outside of school because 'all the kids are in her bubble' (yes, this is happening 100%). On top of that, the secondary schools that are closed, many parents will allow their children to meet up because their younger children are going to school and meeting up so they're not isolated as a family.

I am a very careful, cautious person, but I must say that with the kids in school, I'm far less cautious as I'm already a total sitting duck exposed to hundreds of possible links/cases per day so what does it matter if I go here or there as well?!

Then when the numbers don't go down, they'll shut primary as well. All the time with secondaries online will have been wasted as it'll effectively be the ACTUAL start of lockdown.

I'm amazed that business owners are not furious at their livelihoods being trashed for this kind of ill-thought-out plan.

I couldn't have said it better, this is what will happen.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
EXC: SAGE has told Boris Johnson he has to keep schools closed in January and order a stricter national lockdown than November’s to prevent the virus spiralling out of control

Led by Patrick Vallance, SAGE delivered the stark new advice at a meeting last week

They advised that the PM needs to take stronger measures in the New Year because of the prevalence of the new UK strain

SAGE's new advice is that the R rate might be kept below 1 if schools stay closed in January

They found that closing secondary schools would have a bigger impact than shutting primary schools

If they’re kept open R surges further above 1

SAGE told the PM a New Year national lockdown in England identical to one he ordered in November — during which schools remained open — would not be enough to keep the virus under control

I.e. they want a new national lockdown stronger than November’s

SAGE has also told Boris Johnson they are very concerned about the South African Covid variant

It spreads more quickly than the UK strain

And worryingly, SAGE has privately advised ministers that its mutations raise concerns about immune recognition

www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-uk-government-scientists-close-schools-january-boris-johnson/

Not a surprise.

@Agoodbriskwalk I agree, we've got another couple of months to go yet before Joe Public finally puts two and two together and sees the light, and the numbers are going to be truly awful everywhere.

They won't open. It would be utter madness, the NHS is already overwhelmed. The latest U turn will happen by the weekend.

Yep, I'm inclined to think they will keep primaries open and it will be a bloody disaster and they will be forced to shut them.

Which is mucking the kids about, not putting them first, risking a worse issue and prolonging the problem.

[quote Agoodbriskwalk]@NotaChocoholic

The first lockdown broke us - I am a lone parents of a child with complex needs. I would not cope with another school closure.

If your child has special needs, or is vulnerable due to your mental health then they can go to school.[/quote]
This is utter nonsense. My DD has an ehcp and attends a special school where all children have an ehcp. She was not allowed in school at all during the first lockdown as they would have had to admit all children. Only keyworker children could attend. It was total fake news that children with ehcp could continue to access school.

@Agoodbriskwalk is spot on

Selfishly, I want schools to open because my kids benefit from it and my livlihood depends on it. But it's blatantly obvious to anyone with a shred of common sense that if you close the schools then the numbers will come down more quickly, meaning a shorter lockdown than would otherwise be necessary. Which is good news for businesses and for kids to go back to school. I would hate for schools to be off 'indefinitely' once again, but for the duration of January seems obvious.

Boris said, before the November lock down, if we don't lock down, the NHS will be over whelmed and won't be there for us.

I'd like reassurance with all schools back as normal that should something happen to any of my family, be it covid, dd breathing issues, silly accident that the NHS will be there for us!

@NotaChocoholic That's not entirely true as our borough let children with an EHCP come back to school, my DD didn't have one but has additional needs and was allowed back.

It's a lose lose situation. My DD is year 10, she is very conscientious and worked hard during the last lockdown, but there were days when she felt really low and in tears.
Having been back at school she was much happier, but theres no doubt that it is spreading through schools and there are very few mitigating measures to be taken. And the fact that they have to stay outside at lunchtime in sub zero temperatures makes it pretty unpleasant as well.

He was sounding surprising upbeat at 6 am on a bank holiday from the top of Westminster.

Honestly the whole radio 4 interview was bizarre.

Perhaps there needs to be local decisions, but opening any schools in places where case levels are over 1000 per 100k is complete madness
Our case level is under 100 per 100k, I think it's madness to shut ours. I agree decisions should be local, not made for the whole country for the sake of 'fairness'. Children were never on a level playing field anyway. They could work out a way to take circumstances into account for exam results.

@NotaChocoholic same here. My daughter attends a sen school for children with autism so all pupils have EHCP. School was only open to keyworker children and lockdown was incredibly difficult for us (my dd also has cerebral palsy and her mobility has also suffered) I don't know where this idea that EHCP = school has come from

SAGE has also told Boris Johnson they are very concerned about the South African Covid variant. It spreads more quickly than the UK strain. And worryingly, SAGE has privately advised ministers that its mutations raise concerns about immune recognition

Wow - this is very worrying. If they don't get numbers down then we could be screwed. Closing schools for whole of Jan seems a small price to pay to not fuck up all the progress made with the vaccines (not to mention the millions which will have been wasted on roll out etc).

Also, I read that the S African variant causes more severe disease in kids. They've repeated the 'kids only get it mildly' line so often people seem to think it'll be true forever, but that's not a given. If increased infectivity in kids also means more serious disease, I wonder how many parents will be so keen for kids to go back without any mitigation agains the main form of transmission (airborne spread).

I don't know where this idea that EHCP = school has come from

so wonder that too. Every time I mention to someone we reached breaking point I am asked why I didn't send DD to school as she has an echp and is therefore vulnerable. As if I am a bit stupid. Lost count of the times this 'you could have just sent her to school' has been trotted out to me - usually by people who don't have disabled kids.

Agree with those wanting to know about the new UK and African strain and how they affect children. I don't think it's wise to have them all mixing and letting it spread until we know it won't cause young people to be very poorly.

My dd starts back at university on Monday 4th - that's more of a pressing worry. She was expecting an email perhaps about arrangements. They have a practical exam on the 5th! She's not been out (except food shopping) and neither have her housemates but I'm sure others won't have been so good.

@notevenat20 last day was not the 17th for all schools and the person who ds caught from school who tested positive xmas day , if his parents elder siblings get it they may only show today or in last few days ,

@Pastanred

Except it's getting close to the return date, if people need to arrange childcare, in my case I need to drive 2 DD's in opposite directions back to university, due to start on the 4th. We need to be able to plan

My understanding is that dds school will reopen on the 11th January as per.
No doubt the govt will make an announcement at 5.30 on the 10th to say otherwise.
They were handing out laptops to kids as they left for Xmas........

As it was left my ds yr 11 due back 5th ( 4th inset day ) rest of school due back week after , not sure if that will stay same
Maybe we will learn more on the 30th as that is when they will review tiers etc

The case rate in my area is less that 200 per 100,000 and there haven't been any cases among the pupils or staff in our small village school. It seems disingenuous to close in those circumstances. I think it should be on a school by school basis.

Shameless bullahit-spout, spouts bullshit.

Yep, I'm inclined to think they will keep primaries open and it will be a bloody disaster and they will be forced to shut them.

Agree. It will set progress back again. You have to go fast and hard in a pandemic.

The govt seems to keep making the same mistake. They hold back from shutting things down as it seems unthinkable. Then they end up with higher numbers and longer shutdowns required.

Not sure how safe parents will feel sending in primary kids but not secondary tbh.