The infection rate for pupils last week was 2,509 out of 100,000!!

[SoscaredforJan]

The Times today had reported that the infection rate for secondary pupils last week was 2,509 out of 100,000!! With the rate for primary school pupils close behind.

That’s absolutely shocking.

Rates of 300+ per 100,000 in the South East led to the emergency Tier 4 announcement at the weekend.

Rates among secondary school children are approx nine times this and primaries not far behind.

There can no longer be any conversation about schools remaining open. They need to close to all but key workers and the vulnerable and not reopen until the government has provided the money and means to make them truly ‘Covid secure’ or until enough people have been vaccinated.

How many deaths will we have in a months time when those infections have transferred to the elderly and vulnerable? How many more mutations will we have if the virus is allowed to carry on running through children? I for one do not want to find out that they vaccine no longer works.

It’s time to do what needs to be done. It’s tough and awful for everyone but it has to be done. The schools need to close.

@Kjc39

My daughters school has had cases recently. Most have not had any symptoms. I bet it’s the norm. Or very little symptoms. Hardly a need to close schools. I also work in a preschool. And I my opinion no matter what schools/nurseries need to stay open!

Oohhhh so children don’t have any symptoms That’s ok then! Let them crack on and never mind all the other people they infect.

Attitudes like that is why we are in the shit.

Sounds the UsForThem Twat clanger! We have another one here.

That’s shocking. If they don’t close, people need to vote with their feet if they can. That’s scary.
With difficulties in testing primary, different symptoms and higher rathe if asymptomatic there is no way it’s not just as bad.

If we open, we will close shortly afterwards. The only difference will be that more people will become more sick more quickly.

This is the thing. It doesn't matter what opinions people have - with the new variant I really think this is the reality. You can't open schools without enough staff.

Surely it will happen from the off? Our government are scarily irrational, unpredictable and stubborn. People need to make their own choices and stick to them - they can’t be relied upon. My thoughts are with all teachers, hope the unions are able to properly step up.

@Theotherrudolph

You aren’t comparing like with like data - you cannot compare the ONS survey data with what I think is test data used in the tier justifications to say one is several times the other.

This!

It's also a snapshot of one section of society. Within that tier 4 threshold of course there will be pockets that have higher rates and pockets with lower rates. That's how data works. A county level rate never means every cross section of the county is recording those rates.

Admittedly this is a huge number - and closing schools would be an easy way to bring the numbers down. Jesus, though. I am seriously worried about our kids missing more school. It's a balance and more needs to be done to contain and test and mitigate first. Good or outstanding remote primary education might be "possible" but it's certainly not the norm from my experience of the pandemic

@herecomestheSon

Yes, I'm sorry that you seem to want to find a way to ignore what is really going on in schools.

I am also even sorrier that 2.5% of pupils are infected according to the best scientific estimate. It is tragic.

You can of course try to bury your head in the sand some more?

But how does this 2.5% in schools compare with 2.5% in the community, using the same metric NOT testing? That's the only way to gauge how alarming this figure is

@Noname99

AldiAisleofCrap

Absolutely! I find this recent veneration of education staggering in its hypocrisy.

People demanding schools stay open should just be honest ..... this has nothing to do with some sudden love of education and everything to do with not having 6 hours free child care a day. Thousands of children miss a year or more of formal education due to ill health /family circumstances and no one decides they are doomed forever. We have a curriculum that is essentially in place for one thing .... to teach kids stuff so that we can test that stuff and then make entirely arbitrary and often incorrect decisions about how clever they are and/or how good the school is based on these test, most of which have very little to do with skills required for jobs. Life skills (reading, writing and number) can be taught and caught up after years of missing school.
But parents need /want free child care and so they are willing to sacrifice this to a higher death rate. Stopping a pandemic require breaking chains of transmission and limiting exponential growth. If you don’t, then the virus finds its way to the vulnerable and kills them. Keeping schools open means this will happen as schools are small space/lots of people for prolonged periods which are the high transmissions factors for this virus and so the pandemic will go on longer and more people will die.

Oh fuck off with the "parents just want 6 hours free childcare" line.

I have had sleepless nights, cried regularly, at the visible affect missing school has had on my son. Emotionally, but watching him regress on things like handwriting. I'd love nothing more than to spend those 6 hours with him doing activities and learning but I am also working full time trying to keep other vital community services ticking over.

The one beautiful part of him missing so much school in the summer was that we read hundreds of books together and his reading has progressed massively. This has made me feel even worse as it's made clear how much losing that contact in school has affected him.

Having children at home while working is impossible but if most parents could make it work they would. It's NOT about free fucking childcare. I have endless respect for the school staff and his teachers in particular. He adores them.

I hope to god you're not in education with an attitude like that.

It’s so sad that parents hear the narrative that school is safer, better for their child. What’s the world come to when home isn’t as safe????

@amaryllisu they later took it out.

Government Probably saw the reactions.

@SoscaredforJan

We are at the point where blanket school closures are needed. Lateral testing in schools as promised for January is going to be an impossible task. And that’s even if they worked. They showed to have less than an 10% success rate at picking up Covid infections at University. How the hell will that work?!

And primary are supposed to be going back as normal in January with no testing and infection rates of nearly 2000 in 100000.

In the south east maybe, leave the rest of us out of it.

Latest research from the London School of Tropical Medicine actually states that the only way to bring down the R enough now is to have a November style lockdown but with all schools and universities closed whilst the vaccination programme is accelerated.

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

I was comparing rolling rates for when it was bad in my area and what some areas are experiencing now.

When it was bad here, schools were limping and many did shut. The rolling rates were 600/700. But that's the old strain, and schools were equally affected. Some areas in the se and wales currently have over 1000/ 100,000.

So many staff were ill in some schools that online learning couldn't happen.

There needs to be a plan B put in place and tipping point acknowledged in order to safeguard ongoing education.

(Proper) Testing would help but the reality is the organisation would be immense. The NE had a similarly hugely sharp rise in September and it took a good month to put adequate community testing in place; this was primarily university campuses too. So easier to target. (A mini tier 3.5 helped.)

The issue is with this strain is that if it's more easily spread in school environments, tiers won't work.

My neighbours (in their 60s) caught Covid from their y6 grandson, they passed it on to their other daughter and her family too. Out of a family of 10, only the 3 children under 6 didn't get it (may have been asymptomatic, I'm not sure if they were tested.) luckily all mildly.

Support and childcare bubbles are vital under all tiers. It will be an issue if the new one spreads readily in schools.

Short term online learning (2-4 weeks) may be needed in some areas. Not least to ensure adequate testing is set up.

The government would be very foolish to not have this targeted back up plan in place.

Cross post So, yes I think that's very obvious now.

I also think in the worst affected areas, teaching staff should get the jab. (All should but we know how limited stocks are.)

A Gp friend commented that she felt she was extremely safe as they don't allow anyone in with symptoms and they wear lots of ppe. She was very surprised I don't wear a mask in an sen school, working v closely with children and other adults.

I think our opinions on this will vary greatly due to personal circumstances. Since October 23rd my children attended 7 days of school. We were in constant isolation after isolation and overlapping isolations. My husband eventually got it which I think came from ten children as we are super careful. A lot of children in our area tested positive despite not having one of the three main symptoms.

I also have children with SEN and it was so difficult for them. They need routine and being in and out all the time was really traumatic for us all. So in my ideal world I would prefer that schools closed until things were more stable. We currently have 1100 cases per 100,000 here, which is rising daily.

My business died in the first lockdown so it easy for me to say that as I'm home and my business can't run, I don't get any money either way and it wasn't a new business so I can't claim any government help.

I think on the whole if schools close it will have a dramatic effect on the Economy but then we are tier 4 for it already has. It was announced those shielding need to isolate now though, how's that going to work?

@Marypoppins19

It’s so sad that parents hear the narrative that school is safer, better for their child. What’s the world come to when home isn’t as safe????

Errr... the reality when children are living in poverty, vulnerable themselves or with vulnerable adults.

It's very easy to feel secure in your own home and imagine it's the same for everyone but that's not the case

@amaryllisu, here's a screenshot of the Times article stating 2509 per 100,000.

A Gp friend commented that she felt she was extremely safe as they don't allow anyone in with symptoms and they wear lots of ppe. She was very surprised I don't wear a mask in an sen school, working v closely with children and other adults.

I have a heart condition that has worsened recently. Both my GP and consultant were shocked and surprised that I am expected to teach 16 - 19 and often much older with no infection control, mandated face coverings or proper SD - I’m in FE and in my late 60s. My concerns have been dismissed because bubbles, hand gel and tape on the floor.
Both doctors used the words “totally irresponsible” and have signed me off until whenever. The most annoying thing is that in September I submitted detailed proposals that would have helped me and colleagues to keep reasonably safe, would have benefited many learners and improved success rates and enabled us to work more efficiently - lessons learned from lockdown. These were dismissed out of hand as apparently we had to be seen to be working normally.

I think we all need to accept the situation has changed and this new variant will spread more easily in schools than before.

Do I think schools should have been shut in November - no I don't!

Do I think schools need to go online, possibly until end Jan - possibly in all areas & definitely Tier 4 areas.

But how does this 2.5% in schools compare with 2.5% in the community, using the same metric NOT testing? That's the only way to gauge how alarming this figure is

Age 2 to Y6 1950
Y7-Y11 2590 (Times got the maths wrong)
Y12 to age 24 1270
25-34 1390
35-49 1350
50-69 910
70+ 760

@Kjc39

My daughters school has had cases recently. Most have not had any symptoms. I bet it’s the norm. Or very little symptoms. Hardly a need to close schools. I also work in a preschool. And I my opinion no matter what schools/nurseries need to stay open!

This is such a selfish attitude. Those kids will potentially go on to infect family members and cases will spread in the wider community, until someone does get seriously ill.

It's not about protecting kids directly, it's about protecting wider society.

Also a quick reminder that the reality for a lot of vulnerable kids has not been full time school this term. Many will have needed to self isolate for 2 weeks at some stage this term.

The system in the summer term was much better for them as they could reliably come into school.

Imagine being trapped at home with your abuser, or being unable to go out when your parent is completely inadequate and won't buy you any decent food. But that has been the reality for some kids (and social workers won't get involved face to face because it's 'too much risk').

I am so sick of vulnerable kids being used by people who have no idea what the reality has been.

Is there any more data on the schools in Kent?

I heard a rumour that it was clusters in Kent schools that sparked worries?

It's interesting that even on this thread posters are trotting out the old tag line '' it doesn't affect children '', things have changed.

We have one week with most of us in total lock down then one more school on line week before our children are going to be plunged into crowds, mask less.. With a strain that supposedly affects Children?.
Like a mass experiment, we will have no idea what will happen until its too late, many are in hospital (or waiting in ambulances or corridors to get in or simply stuck at home) then jenny harries will get her evidence... Very slowly that children are more effected?!!

Jenny Harris is bizarre - she still thinks children are pushed to school in pushchairs and they enter a safe controlled environment. Has she ever been in a school?!?!

@nicebreeze I was referring to children in the main. Vulnerable children (well those that are known to be) were able to access school in lockdown. I know my own school worked enormously hard to ensure they were in school, but my point is, so many families were made to feel that they didn’t do as good a job as if they had been in school! Utter tosh! Many kids thrived at home. Parents were utterly awesome.

@noelgiraffe

But how does this 2.5% in schools compare with 2.5% in the community, using the same metric NOT testing? That's the only way to gauge how alarming this figure is

Age 2 to Y6 1950
Y7-Y11 2590 (Times got the maths wrong)
Y12 to age 24 1270
25-34 1390
35-49 1350
50-69 910
70+ 760

So 25-49 year olds have a rate around 1,500/100,000 (I've closed the screen and can't remember exact figures. Using OPs logic we should stop them all mixing in the community as it's far wider than Tier 4 rates