Do you think there is more to this new strain than they are letting on...

[Zara50]

...and if so, what?

My mind is fried.

No, I honestly don’t think so.

They seem to be panicking...

No, I think they’re just worried about the apparent transmissibility. It’s a big deal because it’ll likely result in increased hospitalisations and take harsher measures to stem it. I don’t think there’s anything being hidden

I don’t want to tempt fate... but really think it’s Boris trying to get out of the fact that it’s rife in schools because they’re the viruses dream climate.

Absolutely, and I believe more will be revealed after Xmas

Maze76 - Like what?

Remember scientists will only say what they know, and will always mention what things they don't know. They'll be finding more out over the next days and weeks.

I don't think so. If it's as contagious as they think and increases the R rate but the IFR isn't lower then it could be a real problem for hospital bed capacity if we don't succeed at control the rate of infection. I'm sure they must be worried about what will happen during the next couple of weeks

No, I think they’re just worried about the apparent transmissibility. It’s a big deal because it’ll likely result in increased hospitalisations

At a time when NHS staff are already running down and hospitals are busy. Remember that the original lockdown was to slow the spread so that the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed? That’s why faster transmission is a really big worry. There’s no evidence of any other problem.

Nope.
I think the increase in transmission rates is enough to warrant their panic as it will massively affect hospitals.
Plus, I think if they knew more, they’d say (unless they’d found out something truly and utterly dreadful, like it has 100% fatality rate, and they want to avoid total panic, but sticking within the realms of reality, I think they’d just say), because they want us to do as we’re told. One way to guarantee people stick to rules over Christmas would be to tell us the bad news, not hold it back until after people have broken the rules.

@Zara50

...and if so, what?

My mind is fried.

Tbh I think it sounds like you need a break from media/social media.

This pandemic isn’t going anywhere and ultimately you’re looking for an answer that, if there is one at all, is only going to come with time be it days or months.

This is a slow moving disaster and we’re all not used to the kind of stamina required at the moment. Try and give yourself a couple of days off if you can.

I don’t think it’s as transmissible as they think. I think the surge is due to lack of compliance.

One thing I have learned through the course of the pandemic is that scientists are very bad at keeping their mouths shut.
If there was anything untoward going on someone in ‘Independent Sage’ would have leaked it to the press days ago.

@Baycob

I don’t think it’s as transmissible as they think. I think the surge is due to lack of compliance.

But why would lack of compliance begin in Kent and then gradually spread north through Essex and the rest of the south east?

I think there is a potential it’s more benign, looking at the hospital admissions, the increases are there but certainly not at the same level of the increase in cases. But they can’t announce that or take a chance until they know. They need to act like it’s as virulent as the known strain.

In addition, it seems it’s kids now catching it and spreading it, so they need to vaccinate secondary school age kids to control it. I think the vaccine hasn’t been tested on primary kids so they can’t vaccinate those children.

So I suspect we will see kids requiring to be vaccinated before they can go back to school plus a potential that it’s not as virulent as it was previously.

However I don’t think they are covering anything up, I think it’s more they suspect certain things and won’t announce until they know for sure.

No reason to think so. With a new variation you can't know much at first so you have to act like it's the worst case until you know more.

So we have to act like it's the worst case too when taking precautions, but in the back of your mind you can think "ok but it probably won't be so bad really"

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

One thing I have learned through the course of the pandemic is that scientists are very bad at keeping their mouths shut. If there was anything untoward going on someone in ‘Independent Sage’ would have leaked it to the press days ago.

This. If there were serious concerns among scientists that this new strain were more deadly we'd have heard about it by now.

They are still doing tests on it etc and we can't know for sure but I haven't seen any credible reports anywhere to indicate that anyone thinks this strain is more deadly than the previously prevalent strains. If anything, viruses tend to get weaker over time.

I think they were just freaked by the numbers.

@Baycob

I don’t think it’s as transmissible as they think. I think the surge is due to lack of compliance.

On balance, I prefer to take the word of those who have supplied the genetic sequencing information. theconversation.com/coronavirus-new-variant-genomics-researcher-answers-key-questions-152381

@wondersun

I don’t want to tempt fate... but really think it’s Boris trying to get out of the fact that it’s rife in schools because they’re the viruses dream climate.

Yes this!

I think it has backfired substantially now the rest of the world are Taking him very seriously

Well, schools have been fully open with next to no mitigation for four months. I think it unlikely that the govt would be transparent about this new 'variant'.

Yes, Brexit.

I don’t think it is more dangerous, it just spreads more quickly. My DCs go to school in a tier 4 area. They had one case all term and then, all of a sudden in the last week of term, five cases. Three teachers, two children. On top of that I know of a parent and the wife of a teacher that were both diagnosed in the same week and another child that was diagnosed with shingles which is now thought to be activated by Covid. My own DCs had snotty noses which we put down to common colds as they had no other symptoms but I am not so sure now. I appreciate this is anecdotal evidence but it’s a private school that had a lot of measures in place that seemed to be working previously. Then there was a sudden change.

I think any virus mutates and usually there are several mutations out there. However since schools were open and children were contacting with each other, the mutation that’s spreads easier between children had the advantage and therefore is becoming dominant. Thee Ed new strain is likely to be milder to allow itself spread faster. When people are seriously ill they are not out and about as such so not spreading disease as much.
Now our main problem is the numbers vs NHS capacity.
I do think we will have more restrictions after Xmas.

No I don’t think there’s anything else going on.

In fact I suspect it was massively overplayed by the govt in order to justify the sudden introduction of further restrictions - which hugely and quickly backfired

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