Do you think there is more to this new strain than they are letting on...

[Zara50]

...and if so, what?

My mind is fried.

I know lots of people who have it or have tested positive. All have either no symptoms, are mildly unwell or unwell. No-one seriously ill. I believe that it is more transmissible but not more serious.

Conference on now putting to rest a lot if the speculation on here.

From moderate to highly likely to almost certain confidence that transmission has increased. Based on data.

imho, the big deal about this specific new-variant (there are tonnes of variants) is that it spreads more easily among older children. This changes the calculus hugely with regard to keeping schools open. A lot more educational/social/mental health harm is coming to the age 10-19 demographic.

It's my job to read the scientific articles & I can't keep up. Wondering how you gals find the time

I'm very relieved that C19 still looks overwhelmingly harmless (physical illness) among kids and young people. Is still a silver lining in the situation.

No idea what the Europeans are thinking is their strategy. They already have our new-variant widely.

A lot more educational/social/mental health harm is coming to the age 10-19 demographic

Well it's our job as adults to try and minimise that as much as possible

@PeppermintSoda

itsgettingweird Yes we are in second wave.

I meant rather than a 3rd. Looking at graphs that went down and back up to ore lockdown 2.0 levels. This is same wave as opposed to new one?

[quote Nc135]@likeamillpond read the journals. It explains everything there. It is not possible for the government to hide anything.[/quote]
That's right, but there is so much illogical thinking going on

If the government doesn't tell us enough, then it's because they're hiding something.

If the government tells us everything, all the details, then it's the government using scare-tactics to control us.

It's pretty easy for people to observe what's going on around them, the fact more of us know more people in their local area now succumbing to the virus. Whereas back in Mar-April, it was "who knows anyone who has the virus?" now it's more like "who doesn't know someone who's had the virus".

We've lost 2 people as a direct consequence of the virus, and several work colleagues and relatives of ours have had it. We now increasingly hear on an almost daily basis of someone who's been infected. In the interests of balance, most of those people have been recovering well, and we don't know of anyone with 'long Covid'.

This situation has escalated since around Oct, it isn't just hearsay. Lockdown 2 in November did absolutely nothing, it wasn't even a proper lockdown, which in itself became misleading because people got lulled into a false sense of security,

OP I must admit, that although I've dismissed pretty much everything conspiracy wise up to now, the sudden changes over the weekend and the chaos after made me wonder.....

But I can't see any sort of gain from any agenda.

It's tedious but unless there's a massive revelation of something else all I can do is hunker down and hope for the best.

Nothing would surprise me after this year,but I'd need iron clad proof before I invested in a natty tin foil chapeau.....

It’s not a conspiracy. The impact of the new variant is really kicking in now and the science people now know more about it. The restrictions have not been having the impact they would have hoped and now they are scared that the variant will rip through and really have a bad effect on the NHS.

itsgettingweird I don't think anyone has said it's a third wave?

A few previously ' covid deniers' I know have been on Facebook saying how poorly they are.
They have done tests yesterday , but haven't the results yet.
It's definitely worse here than it was in lockdown one. Even if it's just flu or a cold people are still getting ill a lot more than they did back then and a few have breathing problems which might have happened anyway ! Who knows?

I do wonder how much of this new transmission is actually down to people’s behaviour.

We can see kids getting infected way more than ever before, and they socialise together, not just in schools, but outside, and a lot of people will be seeing family and friends, thinking well they won’t have it, going to each others houses, or pubs and restaurants together, snd simoly spreading it, because so many people have no symptoms.

So although it will be more infectious, I would strongly suspect a large amount of the increase is also due to people simply mixing more.

@Bluntness100

I do wonder how much of this new transmission is actually down to people’s behaviour.

We can see kids getting infected way more than ever before, and they socialise together, not just in schools, but outside, and a lot of people will be seeing family and friends, thinking well they won’t have it, going to each others houses, or pubs and restaurants together, snd simoly spreading it, because so many people have no symptoms.

So although it will be more infectious, I would strongly suspect a large amount of the increase is also due to people simply mixing more.

In our area the stats were climbing during lockdown 2 and then tier 3, massively so towards the end. People were not suppose to mix at all inside and tier 3 was just distanced and outside in specific public places so not lots of inside mixing apart from schools. Pubs and restaurants were closed throughout all this. So either it’s because of lack of compliance, or the then maximum level of controls in lockdown 2 weren’t sufficient.

@Bluntness100

I do wonder how much of this new transmission is actually down to people’s behaviour.

We can see kids getting infected way more than ever before, and they socialise together, not just in schools, but outside, and a lot of people will be seeing family and friends, thinking well they won’t have it, going to each others houses, or pubs and restaurants together, snd simoly spreading it, because so many people have no symptoms.

So although it will be more infectious, I would strongly suspect a large amount of the increase is also due to people simply mixing more.

So the people in the SE behaved less well than others? Lockdown 2 worked where I am - numbers reduced a lot and it became less prevalent in the community. We still are not back up to pre lockdown levels although it is rising.

The difference- we don't have much if the new variant yet!

Lockdown 2 was sufficient with the variants that we new about at the time.

They didn't know about this evolution in Kent and keeping schools open allowed the spread to continue and grow.

Can you imagine what it would be like now if we had no lockdown in November at all?

The problem with the bad behaviour theory is how to explain the way it gradually spread geographically. Surely if you are in Essex and you are seeing numbers rising in Kent nearby you don’t slacken your behaviour, if anything you tighten it up?

It’s worth checking out the Science committee to see how they reached almost certain confidence (highest up from moderate to highly likely).

It’s based on data including movement and the fact that older strain reduced and new one grew.

Pretty much there’s no longer doubt. Even with all the thinking on here about other effects that may be there.

No, I think there's a lot less to it

Hike, so you are saying you have had it twice

Yes but I got off lightly the first time, minimal symptoms. I caught it from a patient.

This time I was admitted to hospital it was so bad. Like being suffocated slowly. And the constant pain and shaking. The red zone was so full there were patients on monitors in the corridors and lots of young people too. I think the viral load being much higher causes a more severe illness?

You can get it twice unfortunately. Antigen studies show not everyone retains the antibodies after the first infection.

Please everyone be careful! I know lockdown’s a massive PITA but there’s something different about this new mutation. I’m sure we’ll find out more in due course.

I’m healthy, young and without risk factors but this strain still put me in hospital and god knows how long it will take to recover.

@PeppermintSoda

itsgettingweird I don't think anyone has said it's a third wave?

They didn't. I was just confirming - out loud!- it was a second wave either starting or still if first rise was the beginning?!

No o e said it was the third wave. But I wasn't sure if it would start being described as that.

Kinda thinking aloud but asking at same time