Do you think there is more to this new strain than they are letting on...

[Zara50]

...and if so, what?

My mind is fried.

Hospitals are full. Imagine what they would be like with zero restrictions.

Worst death rate in europe
We don't have the worst death rate in Europe! Where are you getting that from? Here are figures from Le Monde French newspaper showing death rates

www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/05/05/coronavirus-age-mortalite-departements-pays-suivez-l-evolution-de-l-epidemie-en-cartes-et-graphiques_6038751_4355770.html

Here as not sure if it attached

[quote OpheliasCrayon]@QueenStromba so this situation is tiers/ lockdown working then? Same where I live. Hospitals are full. Routine care is falling by the wayside.

Anyway I'm stepping aside now. I won't win this argument on mn, it isn't allowed to say that lockdowns and tiers and face coverings don't work, or that the collateral damage. So I'll bow out now as I have no will to argue when my opinion is never allowed to be acceptable[/quote]
You think going back to normal would help? R would shoot up to about 6, we'd have cases doubling every day or so and the hospitals would be stuffed to the gills with nothing but covid patients within a fortnight.

I never suggested going back to normal

I said it's clearly not possible to control this virus

@OpheliasCrayon

I never suggested going back to normal

I said it's clearly not possible to control this virus

So you think cases would be the same if we dropped all restrictions? If not, we clearly are controlling the virus, just not enough.

The virus has just ripped through my dd’s secondary school. Presumably the new strain due to the number of positive cases. Two families we know personally caught it, so 10 people - only one with quite a bad flu like illness, two other parents unwell but slightly milder symptoms, 4 symptomless (3 teens and a 75 year old man!), 3 tested negative (one teen and two grandparents who think they may have had it in March).

So no, I don’t think it’s worse. Just more contagious.

But can you tell me what you think will bring it under control? As we've just had lockdown.... That didn't stop it. The tiers before that didn't stop it. The tiers after the lockdown didn't work either so they've just added another tier, which inevitably won't work.... Face coverings don't work - they've not worked all along because we've been using them but then ended up with it spreading and.. Still needed another lockdown.

@OpheliasCrayon the measures you've listed in your post aren't working for the very reasons I listed in my post. Because people in general carried on as normal with "living their life". I hear that phrase so often nowadays.

Lockdown 2 didn't work because as far as many people in this country were concerned it wasn't a lockdown. I observed the same level of traffic volume in my area as if it were just normal times.

Tiers could work, if people didn't deliberately ignore them such as socialising between tiers, going out to a pub in a lower tier area so they could still carry on as normal.

Social distancing could be achieved if more people took a bit more time and patience in supermarkets and also didn't wander round the aisles with their face in their mobile texting and not looking where they're going. These are things I've observed and there are ample threads on MN about supermarkets to know it isn't just me being over critical, it's that people aren't willing or motivated to modify their behaviour. It's too much effort otherwise they would.

It's no one person, and it's no one action that's got us into this situation, it's the mindset of a Nation that doesn't see the relevance of caring more about its community than their own personal convenience.

There was even someone on here bragging about flying off to two separate countries on holiday and how wonderful it is to be free and able to travel. That's not the behaviour that will control this disease, but hey, they scratched their wanderlust itch - slow handclap. I didn't post on that one because I'd have said something that would have been deleted!

I understand why people don't follow the rules when it's a virus for whom the average age of death is higher than th average age of death in our country.

I'm not saying I haven't followed the rules but I can very easily see why people don't. And after a year where nothing is getting any better and all that's happening is the economy is in ruin, livelihoods are lost and education wrecked... I don't blame anyone

More severe lockdowns are a waste of time and an economic and mental health disaster.

Make living with the virus not too difficult and people will comply.

No I don't.

Remember one of the biggest reasons for lockdown at the start was to protect the nhs and also because they didn't really know how the virus behaved.

It stands to reason with a new strain that they need to look again at how it behaves and how to lower the R based on that.

What I think doesn't help is the media constantly saying mutant virus.

It's not a mutant virus. It's a mitigation of the current virus SARS cov 2.

No it’s more transmissible as said

Mutation of current virus.

The average age of death for covid will plummet when the NHS falls over.

@blue25

Yes it is absolutely rife here and I suddenly. know lots of people getting positive tests. Some are very ill, including teenagers.

Yes there s something they're not telling us. They don't want to panic us before Christmas

In the 1918 pandemic the second wave was more virulent than the first. The 3rd was more virulent than the first, but not as bad as the second. So probably just what happens

If you read all the science and medical journals it is very transparent. So no the government aren’t hiding anything.

@likeamillpond read the science and medical journals. It talks about all the genetic changes and what they do. The government aren’t hiding anything. It is not possible to when it is all being published.

There is nothing they ‘are not telling us’ . Stop causing unnecessary anxiety. The fact it is up to 70% transmissible is the big deal. This undermines lots of current arrangements and is a massive threat to NHS.

Let's hope I'm proved wrong.

@Frenchdressing agree. Some people like a drama and conspiracy theory to keep their and others anxiety high though. People need to read the medical and science reports and it is super clear that it is the fact this strain is more contagious that is the issue. I don’t even think they know this for sure yet either. It may be environmental factors but evidence does point to it entering cells easier. Vaccines are extremely likely to still work. Worst case they would be ever so slightly efficacious - but given the Pfeizer vaccine is already 95% effective - even a big drop in efficacy is enough to protect the population. And they have already said that they can tweak the vaccine back up to 95% if needed.

The issue is that because it is more contagious people more people are going to catch it quicker and that could mean overwhelming the NHS. That’s it. And yes of course this strain is already on the continent. It’s just that we are world class as a country at reading genomes.

@likeamillpond read the journals. It explains everything there. It is not possible for the government to hide anything.

I actually feel a bit better after reading this thread as I was verging on the "what are they not telling us?" I now think that they are probably shitting themselves due to discovering just how prevalent it is in some schools they tested and fearing how this will affect the already stretched to capacity NHS. I think by not cancelling routine appointments during what is always a busier period for the NHS that this was kind of inevitable.

To the posters who say that the average age of death is above 80 can I clarify that the people with covid in ICUs are in their 40s 50s and 60s. So if ICU beds run out the average age of death will be much lower.

.

This Government lie about everything