What is the situation in London?

[notevenat20]

I read about the covid situation in London and it sounds bad. I see the graphs of case numbers and it looks terrible. But my doctor friend who was called up in lockdown 1 and is ready to be called again has heard nothing this time round. It seems they are not running out of capacity at all.

Why is this and what is the real situation?

@ImAllOut

Wales (which has had more cases for a longer time but noone cares about that because it's not London) has had two health boards with no ICU beds for the past week, ambulances queued for up to 20 hours outside waiting to unload, emergencies declared cancelling all non urgent appointments and surgeries indefinitely and the health boards asking people not to turn up at A&E since the beginning of December. So I assume that's where London/Kent/Essex will be soon if it follows our pattern. There are fewer hospitalisations and deaths this time around though.

For what it’s worth I think a lot of people care. But I would like to understand why you think people don’t ?

i live in one of the highest rates in the country i dont know anyone who has/had it

I'm sure people do care, but the media has reported far more on London and south east cases and restrictions, despite Welsh cases being higher for longer, and the NHS being in far more trouble here. If the army were driving ambulances in London for the NHS I'm sure I'd have received a breaking news notification.

I know 3 people (all one family) who had Covid towards the end of March. And a chap where I work caught it from his primary aged children at the beginning of December. He wasn't particularly unwell and is fully recovered. I don't know of anyone else who has had it. I live in London, Zone 4. Lots of social distancing and mask wearing compliance here.

I'd go with what the graphs say rather than your doctor friend, anecdata and all that. They don't make up those case numbers or the prevalence graphs

I’m in Kent (Medway). Since the beg of Dec I know about 5 people who’ve had it. Didn’t know anyone here before. I know a couple of people in Liverpool who had it when things were bad up there. The only London person I know had it during the first wave.

The hospitals in Kent are struggling. It was on the news at the weekend that non-covid patients are being transferred to Surrey and beyond. Not sure about London or Essex (Essex’s numbers are pretty high though).

I have friends who work in hospital in both central London and in Kent plus someone who works in the ambulance service. They all say hospitals at capacity (a couple have had to turn people away and several are already preparing to triage) but a major problem is staff shortages especially medics and nurses. The people I know who have caught it (and definitely seem more this time around) have teenage children. Medics I know who have had to self isolate were asymptomatic but as they're tested frequently it was picked up that way. Back in March I knew of two (one a good friend) who were in ICU and at least 3 friend-of / colleagues-off who died so I'm hoping that although more virulent perhaps it's less lethal in this latest incarnation? But obviously until they know for sure, the Government is not taking any chances.

My son's primary in SE London had no issues with covid at all for the entire term, then in the last two weeks 4 out of 7 year groups had to stay home. So something is happening for sure.

Someone upthread mentioned people getting tested to see if it was okay to travel/bubble for Christmas, I wonder if this is happening a lot and driving up numbers too.

@ImAllOut

I'm sure people do care, but the media has reported far more on London and south east cases and restrictions, despite Welsh cases being higher for longer, and the NHS being in far more trouble here. If the army were driving ambulances in London for the NHS I'm sure I'd have received a breaking news notification.

I agree with you.

Our hospital is NW England and has been at or around full capacity for weeks now with Covid, it’s just started to reduce.

It only makes headlines when it’s London /SE

Our covid icu patients doubled over the weekend. I'm a little worried now to be honest. Every shift I do I get a text saying can anyone help? 2 nurses down and no bank nurses coming on tonight. I've done double my hours this week and we are still short every night.

I am in London. Don't know anyone who has it. DD in primary. Her school went all the way to 18 December with no cases and no bubbles closing. Obviously people could have it asymptomatically, but there's no way of knowing that.

@1980sMum

I have friends who work in hospital in both central London and in Kent plus someone who works in the ambulance service. They all say hospitals at capacity (a couple have had to turn people away and several are already preparing to triage) but a major problem is staff shortages especially medics and nurses. The people I know who have caught it (and definitely seem more this time around) have teenage children. Medics I know who have had to self isolate were asymptomatic but as they're tested frequently it was picked up that way. Back in March I knew of two (one a good friend) who were in ICU and at least 3 friend-of / colleagues-off who died so I'm hoping that although more virulent perhaps it's less lethal in this latest incarnation? But obviously until they know for sure, the Government is not taking any chances.

I hope it’s less lethal, but I suspect it’s more that the bulk of infections are occurring in youngsters in schools and then to their parents. Kentonline had an age breakdown of infections and teenagers and people in their 40s (parents of teenagers age) were way higher than other age groups. The real test will be when this variant makes it into care homes.

@notevenat20

I have several hospital-based doctor and nurse friends, they say their hospitals are nowhere near close to capacity at the moment

Yes this is what I hear too. I don't know how to tally that with the terrible graphs we get shown.

Have a look at NHS data, it’s very good and comprehensive

London is doing all right

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Ignore the press conference graphs

I’m in south east London and I don’t know a single person who has had it or died from it. The only people I’ve heard of are friends of my mums (who I don’t know personally/never met) and they were all older

It's seems ok here in my area of Greater London, primary school had 2 cases since it started back. I know of a few people who have had it this year but that's all.

Well I'm in NE London and both of my two closest hospital trusts have closed to all non-urgent procedures - so I would say things probably aren't going great here.

Every winter the NHS supposedly gets to breaking point (“on its knees”), so I suppose it doesn’t take much of an uplift in patients to push it over the edge, especially combined with so many medics being off isolating.

Horrendous. I work in ICU and 10 of my colleagues are self isolating at the moment. We had a designated covid ICU but that has filled up now so we have got covid patients all over the place. 70+ admissions to my trust in the last 24hours.

I’m in South London. Loads and loads here. One school closed early as PHE told them to. Many schools had many year groups out. I know of 4 people right now with COVID. I know of 2 who have died and one with long Covid.

Just across the border from North London, and work with bereavement.

April and May were horrendous, but we're relatively quiet at the moment. We haven't dealt with a covid case since May.

But, two of the local secondary schools had several years groups isolating last week of term. DS2 was self isolating for 10 days.

Interestingly, DS1's school has been better, but he and most of his year group were unwell in March, so I suspect it went around their school then.

I was ill at the same time, and a close friend who I saw a lot at that time has tested positive for antibodies, although she doesn't recall being unwell.

Our London NHS trust is so far quieter than it has been in the last two winters.

Both my childrens schools have been riddled with covid. Lots of cases but no child, parent or teacher has had it badly from what I hear. Most cases were only known because mass testing was encouraged by the schools and council whether you had symptoms or not.

The only person I know who needed oxygen was in hospital having an operation when he caught the virus. Therefore not in a great condition to start. He is fine now and will be back at work in January.

We’ve been fine in schools until now. But hopping on to see re hospitals

I live in tier 2 and know one person whose mother had it early on and sadly died (in her early 80s).

I know someone over the border in tier 4 who caught it from her primary age son - the whole family had it other than the 2 year old dd - they are all fully recovered/close to 100%.

My mother caught it and didn't have any symptoms (possibly a bad headache about a week before her positive test). She has a friend who had it (late 70s) and wasn't very well for a week (slept on the sofa for a week because she was too tired to go upstairs) but is now fine and her husband also had it and didn't have any symptoms. Another friend's family had it (in Herefordshire, ironically, given they are now in tier 1).

Otherwise two of my son's athletics squad, one is a nurse and one is a police officer so both very public facing.

And that is it.

@Dannn Which hospital?

@QueenieButcher Which two trusts?