Kids more likely to get new strain...

[Ohbabybab]

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28V2EV

Do you think this will mean school closures?

starfish4

I agree with you. I think teachers should have had that from the start and they should be high up on the list for a vaccine.

However, if the new strain is more contagious to children then schools open as they are now are going to cause serious issues when they take it home and infect their family members. The government either needs to put in place actual safety measures such as masks in classrooms and a rota system to allow for social distancing or close schools to all those who are able to distance learn.

@noelgiraffe

It’s more transmissible in general and kids are crammed in schools every day with no masks and no social distancing.

It’s not targeting kids, it’s taking advantage of the lack of protection given to children.

It's not quite that.

The new variant has a number of changes on the 'spike' which is believed to make it easier to infect a potential host. Cutting out a lot of detail here, one part of the way they do this is using ACE-2, and one of the hypotheses on why children and women tended to get the disease much more mildly is that their naturally high levels are protective. Those with lower levels (men, the elderly, diabetics) get the disease more seriously.

If (and it's still a big if) there are changes to how the spike interacts with the host such that the previous protective effect of high ACE becomes irrelevant, then DC and women could see different disease patterns.

Please note the numbers of 'if' in this post

@StatisticalSense

SAGE might as well be disbanded if their suggestion to controlling the spread is to use a vaccine which there is no reason to believe reduces spread. This particular vaccine is only suitable to be used in people who are at higher risk of getting seriously ill from the vaccine rather than those at a higher risk of contracting it asymptomatically as there is no benefit from its use in the latter group.

That would mean no vaccine roll out at all then, as sterilising immunity has not been adequately demonstrated in any to date.

OTOH, giving the vulnerable (elderly, CEV and CV) a vaccine that makes their risk if serious disease broadly the same as the healthy u50 population, will save over 90% of deaths and countless hospitalisations. When there is spare capacity in NHS, we might be able to think about relaxing restrictions.

I can see why it is worthwhile.

Especially as it remains possibly that there will prove to be sterilising immunity.

@Ohbabybab

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28V2EV

Do you think this will mean school closures?

What is actually says is:

A new variant of the coronavirus spreading rapidly in Britain carries mutations that could mean children are as susceptible to becoming infected with it as adults.

But don't let that get in the way of a good old scaremonger thread.

I think this news has come now deliberately, to prepare us for a school closures announcement.

I read that teachers are singularly less likely than others, including hospital staff, to get this infection, presumably because they work for years in a melting pot of infections. The teachers' immune systems are thought to be extremely well exercised, making them the equivalent of immunity-athletes.

@scaevola
That was specifically to do with Sage's supposed suggestion to vaccinate school children with this particular vaccine in order to slow spread in schools. Of course it makes sense to vaccinate those at the highest risk (whether through age or health conditions) of dying if they catch the virus, but it is completely illogical to be vaccinated whole professions which are largely at a very small risk with this particular vaccine.

@StatisticalSense

n fact there is actually an argument that teachers and NHS professionals should be at the very bottom of the list for this particular vaccine due to the possibility that the increased asymptomatic spread which may well be associated with it would cause even bigger problems if these particular groups had it.

++++++

I would imagine that using sick, long term health issues and potentially dying teachers as some kind of statistical indicator in lieu of a failed track and trace programme may cause a tad of concern to teachers?

Prioritising the group of people who are objectively at the lowest risk from the virus to receive a vaccine which is in scarce supply and (probably) doesn't slow the spread of the virus is basically like giving free school meals only to the richest.

The news story says children are more likely to get infected, not more likely to get ill.

Big difference

Just had an email from the schools that my children attend. Both are not returning on 5th JAN!

A tiny hidden bit at the bottom saying if you want KW provision you must reply by 12 noon TODAY! Very sneaky of the school to do this when most of us are working still and juggling childcare and getting ready for Christmas as well. Apparently, despite having over 100 teachers if we don't let them know by noon today they won't be able to stay the small number of children that need KW or vulnerable children provision.... no wonder people get annoyed with schools.

@StatisticalSense

SAGE might as well be disbanded if their suggestion to controlling the spread is to use a vaccine which there is no reason to believe reduces spread. This particular vaccine is only suitable to be used in people who are at higher risk of getting seriously ill from the vaccine rather than those at a higher risk of contracting it asymptomatically as there is no benefit from its use in the latter group.

That is a decent point.

The only way teachers would get priority (above the general population and perhaps alongside other essential frontline workers, not CEV/older people obviously) is if there are so many ill (inc with long covid) that schools can't run.

@20mum

I read that teachers are singularly less likely than others, including hospital staff, to get this infection, presumably because they work for years in a melting pot of infections. The teachers' immune systems are thought to be extremely well exercised, making them the equivalent of immunity-athletes.

That's interesting but where did you read it?

Interesting.

How unsubstantiated information becomes fact through the attention economy.

This will only be fed by stupidity.

Oh...

How about school staff being actually named on a list for vaccination?

So @SexTrainGlue, might that also explain the higher numbers of women aged 20-40 being hospitalised in the last few months? Although I don't know why women over 40 wouldn't be affected. Hormones perhaps?

(You sound like you're a scientist?)

Ah sorry, I missed a page.

"May be" "could" and so on.....

If it's more infectious however, everyone is more likely to catch it. Doesn't mean they're more likely to be ill or die.

@starfish4

If this is the case, school staff will surely need more ppe and distancing to remain open.

School staff will need to be prioritised to get the vaccine.

@StatisticalSense

SAGE might as well be disbanded if their suggestion to controlling the spread is to use a vaccine which there is no reason to believe reduces spread. This particular vaccine is only suitable to be used in people who are at higher risk of getting seriously ill from the vaccine rather than those at a higher risk of contracting it asymptomatically as there is no benefit from its use in the latter group.

Okay, well how come I know a few people who work for health care who have had their first dose of it ???

@TrustTheGeneGenie

"May be" "could" and so on.....

If it's more infectious however, everyone is more likely to catch it. Doesn't mean they're more likely to be ill or die.

The rates of death will go up though and especially so if there is no room in hospitals.

Why is SAGE recommending children get vaccinated with a vaccine that has not been tested on children. I'm pretty sure the current vaccine was ONLY approved for use in adults.

That doesn't seem very scientific to me.

I agree though, it doesnt prevent spread so thats no use either.

@IloveJKRowling

Why is SAGE recommending children get vaccinated with a vaccine that has not been tested on children. I'm pretty sure the current vaccine was ONLY approved for use in adults.

That doesn't seem very scientific to me.

NO fucking way!

The rates of death will go up though and especially so if there is no room in hospitals

Unless it's actually weaker.

And the thread was about children getting it, not deaths. Just making a point.