Seventy percent more transmissiable

[Justanotherdayina]

Can someone explain how is it ?

Gotta keep the fear up somehow.
This

So with this new mutation does 2 meters apart still work? Are masks now a waste of time? How is it spreading faster, is it now airborne?

@Justanotherdayina you need to go to the thread mentioned above.
This has been covered there.
Basically it looks like you need a lower viral load to get it.

@Baileysforchristmas Go and read the other thread!!

I know. I actually felt slightly reassured when I read the "New Strain Stuff" posts. Not great news but not dreadful. A matter of days since it's being subjected to tests to find out what its potential is, and what current vaccine/neutralizing measures can do, so all we can attempt is reacting to what we do know on that short space of time and research (to make things less bad 14-21 days down the line - not a magic bullet, but something). But no, it's clearly all about fear and denial...

@SantaClausComingToTown

To keep the fear up - he has to have an excuse to change Christmas rule.

why are we the only country to see this?

Erm, in case you hadn't notice other countries are going into full lockdown...France, Germany...it isn't just us.

@EmmanuelleMakro but why? Why would 'they' ? Who are 'they'?
(Non conspiracy theory answers only please)

@ThatDamnKrampus to be honest the sort of loons who spout on about 'keep the fear up' probably don't believe other countries exist.

If it was 100% more transmissible, that would mean twice as transmissible. So saying it's 70% transmissible is less than that, but it's still a big increase.

@Alonelonelyloner - Questioning the official line doesn’t make one a “covid denier”.

Quite possibly, deciding to relax the rules at Christmas was a mistake. However, in order to save face and to avoid accusations of incompetence from voters, the government may have made the decision to throw “mutant virus/70% more likely to infect” out at the press conference. Creating a “two birds with one stone” situation as it avoided admitting any accountability but might have the added bonus of encouraging compliance.

Questioning the governments approach, the media reporting, the official narrative... it doesn’t mean denial of Covid.

When you presented with information from an external source, you can ask yourself - “Who is telling me this?” “Why are they telling me?” “Is there another viewpoint?” “What might that viewpoint be?”

Even Year 7 students are encouraged to ask themselves these questions as they (hopefully) learn to think critically.. examine your sources and it is okay to question them. Where is the evidence ? 🤦🏼‍♀️

But @Teaanddimebars there is evidence ......that's what the scientists were there for.

@Elephant4

It's a load of old bollocks.

When they need to open shops again this mutation will suddenly be forgotten.

There is no new mutation.

I think there is a new strain. It’s not unexpected - viruses mutate. They don’t know if it’s any more virulent, just that it spreads easier. That may not actually be a bad thing if it turns out to be less virulent! More cases aren’t really a problem unless they translate to hospitalisations and deaths and hopefully, with the more vulnerable being vaccinated, those numbers will decrease.

Sorry @Teaanddimebars I realise you were answering another poster's question.

Oh @Elephant4, thank goodness!
Can you show us your proof so we can get back to normal?

[quote Bushola]Boris “Families will lose loved ones”

[/quote] And many families have... what's your point?

Tbf he's only said "up to 70%" not exactly 70%, I doubt they can know more accurately yet.

The 70% will be an increase in the secondary attack rate

This refers to what proportion of contacts of an infected person is expected to catch it.

Estimated of the secondary attack rate for SARS-COV2 vary (the longer the virus has been around, the more the data exists and the better the estimates can get) - it also varies depending on whether it is a household contact or not (rates tend to be higher within households)

So say you have one infected person who during the time they were infected saw 20 people and infected 2 that's a 10% secondary attack rate. If they infect 3, then that's a 50% increase (sorry, in too much haste to work out the numbers to represent 70% more closely!)

They get the numbers from Track and Trace contact notifications, and even allowing for the reputation of that dataset to be mixed (being as restrained as I can be on that!) the increase is substantial and yes there is evidence

There are a lot of epidemiologists looking at this because it really is important

'Gotta keep the fear up somehow'

Why would a government deliberately fuck up their entire economy by lying about a supposedly non existent virus?

offs.

The science is clear. They can analyze the structure of the virus samples they receive. Their analysis reveals that the majority of the samples being sent in now, in London, are this new mutation. in the rest of the SE it is approaching 50%. The rapid rise in numbers shows that the current restrictions are NOT working in the way they have in the past, in those areas where this new strain is prevalent. This indicates that this strain of the virus is more transmissible so needs stricter lockdown to be controlled.

It's not rocket science. the situation has changed because of this new strain, it requires a more stringent response.

who in their right minds would swap a few days of feasting for a life? We have a vaccine, we just need to hang on until most of us have been vaccinated.

The conspiracy theorists are out in force today . The government have been generally rubbish and made a mess-up announcing relaxed Christmas measures so early but as if they deliberately want to close retail down at such a lucrative time of year.

I'm in one of the tier 4 areas and the infection rate has absolutely soared in the past couple of weeks.

That’s alright @DameCelia. I feel that the scientists are wheeled out when it suits Boris “Look, there’s a scientist! And an actual scientist. Standing beside me. And he agrees with what I say”

But I wonder how much the same scientists are listened to when it is not convenient. Again, I don’t know. But I think it fair to question why certain bits of information are shared at particular times.

I don’t believe Covid is a hoax and I am not concerned about Bill Gates and microchips

But it is worrying sometimes that it seems to be either “Stay the fuck home and snitch on your neighbours” or “covid denier” on here. I think there is room in the middle somewhere

I have a relative in the London area, she had a baby during lockdown, because of this she has been ultra careful.

She has caught COVID despite minimum trips out wearing masks etc. She has become ill despite her best efforts and following ALL the rules.

So yes be afraid be very afraid - not because of Boris or statistics but the Virus is Virulent and nobody told it to take Christmas off!

@catsrus - can you link to the evidence or what “their analysis reveals” ? This thread is about the “70% more transmissible” aspect.

You sound sure. I’d like to be as sure as you are and I’m interested in how the precise “70% more” statistic was reached. Do you have data you can link to?