New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

i heard someone interviewed re trials. i think if it's a tweak ti an already approved vaccine it doesn't need trials- an example of this is the flu vaccine every year.

@Frazzled It won't be a new vaccine they'd be making, it would be a tweak to the existing vaccine so that it better recognises the new strain (as well as they old one) This is what they do with the flu vaccine every year and they don't need to redo the trials as they're just small tweaks. I wonder what impact this will have on roll out though? What will they do with the vaccines they already have, or manufacture in the next 6 weeks. They'd likely be fairly effective even against the new strain so you wouldn't want to waste them.

@Nc135

I’m not here to spread fake news. See attached. But since then Pfizer has put out a statement saying it sees no issue why the vaccine would not work with new strain. So all a bit odd.

So maybe they're trying to reassure people that even if the vaccine needs tweaking this can happen quite quickly, but for now they don't think that's necessary?

[quote Frazzled2207]@Nc135

I’m not here to spread fake news. See attached. But since then Pfizer has put out a statement saying it sees no issue why the vaccine would not work with new strain. So all a bit odd.[/quote]
It makes sense to move forward on it even if the assumption is that vaccine will work

More into. Makes a bit more sense now. The rest is on the guardian newsfeed.

Here's a link to an article about Pfizer vaccine saying it should work ok www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-strain-variant-vaccine-works-new-biontech-b1777487.html

[quote Firefliess]Here's a link to an article about Pfizer vaccine saying it should work ok www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-strain-variant-vaccine-works-new-biontech-b1777487.html[/quote]
Thank you. I like the fact they could update the vaccine if need be. Sweet 👌

@Firefliess

I think Boris wasn't so much implying that we'd fucked up, so much as acknowledging that we really need them to open the ports, and so need to be meek and accommodating.

And yes, drained and exhausted by it all does show too. It's made him less bolshy and a bit more human than usual.

Yes I think you’re right. I’m just not used to him sounding so agreeable.

So maybe they're trying to reassure people that even if the vaccine needs tweaking this can happen quite quickly, but for now they don't think that's necessary?

I think this is exactly what they are saying. Likely this vaccine works. But EVEN IF IT DOESN’T they can quickly tweak it. Also even if the vaccine ‘doesn’t work’ it won’t go down to zero protection. It will just be slightly less efficacious so will go from say 95% effective to 90% effective. That is still more than good enough efficacy for a vaccine.

i think this is the paper with the evidence regarding increased infectivity which is based on cell culture rather than mere correlation

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.14.422555v3

it says "We find the delH69/V70 enhances viral infectivity [...] Such mutations have the potential to enhance the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to generate vaccine escape variants that would have otherwise significantly reduced viral fitness."

@SRYnegative

NeurotreeWenceslas It may well emerge that we are but to be honest, with the data, definitely better safe than sorry

Which data?

The graphs showing how it's gaining dominance quickly, along side big spikes in cases in areas where it's been found to be on the rise.

Interesting take on the case numbers from Zoe app professor. They aren't seeing quite the same picture.

Can you explain?

As I heard it : their Zoe figures see a rise in southeast but not to the extent of cases found by government.

He noted the variation of prevalence within London itself and was questioning broad lockdowns.

Can’t find the post now but going off Covid messenger the cluster in Cumbria must be in Eden as their cases are increasing substantially and the other regions are slower.
Interesting because it’s one of the most rural areas so got off quite lightly before.

I also read this variant has popped up in other places but all independent of each other. Can’t find where I read it but is this to do with it evolving to be more effective (so by design to some extent) or coincidence?

I don’t think there are truly any areas in England/the U.K. that are independent of each other. It’s such a small nation that it’s very easy to travel around and work in different areas. According to the local news, the Cumbria cluster was a result of a rugby team travelling from Chester.

@DecemberDiana that would presumably lend weight to the theory that the rise is largely in children? Less likely to be logged into the app?

@TheDrsDocMartens

I also read this variant has popped up in other places but all independent of each other. Can’t find where I read it but is this to do with it evolving to be more effective (so by design to some extent) or coincidence?

I don’t think this is right. Can you find the source?

Don’t parents all report for their children on the Zoe app? I do. Our school asked us to all join and report for the whole families

I stopped doing it for ages as it was just feeding my anxiety. I do it just for me now, not dd. Not every day tbh. Some days I just need to step away .

@MarshaBradyo I'm not sure how they could say with any confidence that the cases are independent of each other. Movement and asymptomatic infection is so widespread that surely people could ache passed it to each other across different areas of the country.

[quote Chaotic45]@MarshaBradyo I'm not sure how they could say with any confidence that the cases are independent of each other. Movement and asymptomatic infection is so widespread that surely people could ache passed it to each other across different areas of the country. [/quote]
I’d say it’s impossible. For the exact same sequencing to occur. So I agree.

@ceeveebee I’m not on the Zoe app, never been asked to be, and school hasn’t mentioned anything either.