Normal life will not resume by May

[LemonadeFromLemons]

The article below is brilliant at explaining what the vaccine will and will not do. Unfortunately, it also makes clear that it is going to be years not months until we are able to go back to normal. I would strongly encourage every person to read it to get the clear facts in an easy format:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

I hope that once the pandemic subsided we still reevaluate how we want to live as a society. Especially in relation to other living beings and our environment

Just a personal view, but when the true cost of all this insanity really rolls in, I doubt many will be very interested in self-indulgent wittering about the environment, "we've only got x years to save the world" and so on

The "urgent cause" might have all been very exciting at the time, and certainly it's attracted billions in money, but on the whole I suspect that ship has sailed

@museumum

It depends what people mean by “normal”. I have always believed that test trace and isolate is here to stay. It will always be a notifiable disease. There will be outbreaks. But I also believe we can get community transmission and hospital admissions down low enough that we can all go back to the cinema, theatres and sporting fixtures.

I completely agree. I think self isolating with symptoms pending a test will be a thing always. As it should be. And coupled with proper sick pay.

@HmmSureJan

Is this the interview?

www.npr.org/2020/10/29/929073472/denial-and-lies-are-almost-an-intrinsic-part-of-an-epidemic-doctor-says

It seems to me that he is saying it will take until 2022 for the vaccines to make a difference, but the interview was done in October just before any vaccines were approved. He mentions them becoming available in 2021, where of course vaccinations have already started, albeit only at the very end of this year. I think perhaps he is overestimating the difficulties of delivering the vaccines as well, considering that distribution seems to be going fairly smoothly.

His prediction for the time between 2022 and 2024 still not being normal appears to be more to do with the economy needing to recover.

Things won't be back to normal in May but they will be much better than now. Most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated, restrictions will be less severe, and warmer weather will make it easier to socialise outdoors. We still had restrictions last summer but most people found life a lot fuller and more manageable. I think we'll be in a similar, if not better, situation in May in terms of social restrictions.

@HmmSureJan

I listened to a podcast with Nicholas Christakis - professor of social and natural sciences at Yale. He believes we won't be approaching anywhere near normal until 2023, at best late 2022. I think he's right tbh. He's not been wrong about any other predictions he's made around the pandemic. He's well worth listening or reading. He's actually very positive in how he talks about it too, not a doom and gloomer at all.

Zzz 😴

@AcornAutumn yes we can risk the fine and yes we will !!!

@Forgetmenot157

I think if people think we will all Blindly follow the rules for another year then they are the naieve ones. JVT said once over 65 and vulnerable have been vaccinated then that will be 99% of possible deathz averted... That's enough for me and will be for others... If the ones that really are scared, want to hind away for years then be my guest... You will be a minority by June tho I can tell you that for certain.

👏🏼

@viccat

Surely no one knows yet. A lot will depend on how the vaccination roll out goes but vaccinating the elderly, health and care workers and CEV is not going to stop the spread in the community...

But will stop 99% of the deaths.... can’t live like that forever over a virus that will be like a cough for most if it has stopped 99% of deaths

Life is for living not living in fear, death comes to us all one day, why waste being alive when the vaccines are stopping 99% of deaths, and I say this as someone who has a family member fighting for their life on a ventilator

[quote HeyBaby2020]@AcornAutumn yes we can risk the fine and yes we will !!![/quote]
Right but that’s not “removing of the crazy laws“ normal.

[quote Forgetmenot157]@acornautumn when people say they will go back to normal, it means they will go and see and stay with family, hug their friends and grandparents. People will find a way to get around the rules.

Also with a no deal brexit looming Boris will not let the economy suffer a minute longer than it needs too![/quote]
You think people will feel more confident doing that when priority groups are vaccinated?

I’m worried about the fines. Also I think my friends won’t go out till covid has “gone away”. I’m pretty much out of friends at this point. Mostly Covhysterics.

The friends and rellies I’ve seen, I’ve hugged. Hugging is not illegal yet.

I looked at the diseases it compared to about life not going back to normal and vaccines

Diptheria - has a 5-10% mortality rate rising to 20% in the under 5s (with medical treatment)

Measles - mortality rate much lower (around 0.1-0.05%) but hospitalisation due to complications is 1 in 4

Whooping cough has a 0.5% death rate in babies and is highly infectious.

All very different and to me far scarier facts than COVID once you get the overwhelming the NHS under control. Once the majority of those who need it are vaccinated are done why do we need the rules.

In a strict data sense the article is right in how vaccines work - but why for an illness which a year down the line is still mild for most do we need the same kind of wait. Yes long covid is a real and awful thing to experience but the risks of that against all everything else. Surely we just have to take a deep breath and say that we have done and are doing enough

But the quote says hospitalisation pressure will fall. So why would we keep battering the economy after this?

It’s the only reason why we are using the measures we are.

[quote Bajalaluna]@picsinred such a disgustingly selfish attitude. What about those vunerable shop workers, who have no choice but to serve you when you're "done" with wearing a mask? Putting them at risk because you don't want to mask up for half an hour is such a selfish attitude. I work 12 hour shifts in a supermarket, wearing masks, which rub the backs of my ears raw and irritate my skin no end. I'll be putting my mask back on in an hour to go back to work, despite my ears still being tremendously sore from my 12 hour shift yesterday. I have severe asthma so could pull the exempt card, but I mask up, to protect my colleagues, customers and myself. Have a little damn respect for others around you. Refusing to wear a mask for the hour at most you'll be in the supermarket when the staff around you spend more time wearing them than not it just pathetic. [/quote]
Well said. The attitude of @PicsInRed is utterly antisocial.

Bajalaluna

Were you bothered about customers not wearing masks before it became law?

@Puzzledandpissedoff

I hope that once the pandemic subsided we still reevaluate how we want to live as a society. Especially in relation to other living beings and our environment

Just a personal view, but when the true cost of all this insanity really rolls in, I doubt many will be very interested in self-indulgent wittering about the environment, "we've only got x years to save the world" and so on

The "urgent cause" might have all been very exciting at the time, and certainly it's attracted billions in money, but on the whole I suspect that ship has sailed

Oh dear. Sorry to disappoint you but I think that many people are re-evaluating what they want 'normal' to mean in the future and realising that if we trash nature in the way we've been doing, nature will 'bite back' just as it has with this pandemic.

@cantkeepawayforever

I agree with @PicsInRed and more people should be like them! #FuckYourMasks

Ah, one of those. Just because you don't like them, everyone else has to be at greater risk? Still a really nice attitude....

No point in engaging with someone posting like a child having a tantrum.

Looking at the UK projections on worldometres theres not much difference in timelines between doing nothing and the rapid rollout of vaccine. Mind you I have no idea what data that's based on.

Things will start to ease up after Easter would be my bet as the hospital beds are protected by vaccinating the most vulnerable. The rest of us will be sucking up life with covid. We just dont know how far covid has already done its thing as much as in spreading and creating a firewall.

Mind you, you would think not as still not know anyone first hand who has had it. Friends of friends yes, but surely we haven't got close to 50% as I should have known people first hand.

Who knows? Like anything on here has panned out as predicted so far?it does seem likely we are in for a third peak after Christmas looking at America.

[quote LemonadeFromLemons]The article below is brilliant at explaining what the vaccine will and will not do. Unfortunately, it also makes clear that it is going to be years not months until we are able to go back to normal. I would strongly encourage every person to read it to get the clear facts in an easy format:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f[/quote]
Oh do piss off.

@Loveyourideas the problem for us is that this year has made it even more obvious that, for my 82yo mum with dementia, what is most important above all else is social interaction. The deterioration brought about by the closure of her usual groups is pitiful to see and she can't cope with Zoom.etc. Quite frankly death by covid would be a release from her fear and confusion.

I don't think we will be 'back to normal' by May by any stretch, but I am expecting a big improvement on the following:

• warmer weather and more outside activities will be enjoyed by greater numbers
• The very vulnerable etc will be vaccinated by then, so most of us will be in a much lower/lowest tier
• Work will resume for all, and the furlough/mothballing will finally come to an end, as there is no need to help the NHS as there will be enough beds for all
• Holidays will become easier, as procedures are set up with super quick testing. Travelling will resume in a limited capacity.
• wedding and especially outdoor events will go ahead
• Restaurants and bars etc will all be open

We will see a gradual return to normal life, slowly and carefully we will move down the tiers, until one day we will fling off the last mask and hug our friends and family. That will be a fine day indeed.

I think people still don’t understand the point of the lockdowns and restrictions. The reason for them was to take pressure off the NHS. With a 95% effective vaccine, applied to the most vulnerable, it won’t be long before that makes a big difference to numbers needing treatment.

While I expect things like mask wearing to continue for a while, shutting down society to stop the spread of Covid in healthy under 50s just won’t be on the agenda.

But there is a lot that this pandemic has taught us about what really matters

Yes. Spending time with my loved ones. I won’t be held back from that a second longer than I have to be.

@Mousehole10 - Well seeing as the government have said once phase 1 of the vaccination plan has been completed we will be going back to normal I don’t think they can backtrack now.

Have you seen how many times they've backtracked this year already?

[quote countrygirl99]@Loveyourideas the problem for us is that this year has made it even more obvious that, for my 82yo mum with dementia, what is most important above all else is social interaction. The deterioration brought about by the closure of her usual groups is pitiful to see and she can't cope with Zoom.etc. Quite frankly death by covid would be a release from her fear and confusion.[/quote]
Sorry to hear that. I understand completely death being better. This is why my 82 year old mum does what she can within the law.