Guesses for the 16th.

[Denthelp]

What do you think will happen at the review on the 16th?

Lots of articles in the papers saying London (where I live) will go to tier 3.

I’m really hoping they are wrong.

I was thinking they might loosen it a bit but the covid messenger site has shown more areas rising today rather than falling like they have for a couple of weeks. Seems east anglia, Kent and London are rising at the moment.

No change whatsoever, and I'm pretty confident about that.

I’ve got my fingers crossed for tier 2 (Manchester)

Iive in a tier 3 area up north where currently rates are lower than much of London and have dropped about 40 % in 2 weeks. I hope either we move down or they move parts of London up or I am going to start thinking this is really discrimination against the north.

I'm hoping we go into tier 2 'cos tier 3 can go do one.
If not, meh screw you and I'll just soldier on lol

There's a spike in my area of London which is not the slightest bit surprising given the amount of people there this weekend (I was there for an emergency dental appointment). It was heaving, as busy as any Saturday, little in the way of SD and few wearing masks. Having said that, I know more people that have tested positive this wave than the last, and they all have links to school outbreaks.

@Returnofthemaccys what makes you confident? Even with the rises?

@clareykb why would anyone benefit for discriminating against the north?

I think Essex will go into tier 3. I hope it doesn't - I live there, but in an area with case numbers well below the national average - but I think it will.

@CoolYourBeansMySon yes I agree. So many people our in London at the moment. And they definitely aren’t all Londoners!

@Hardbackwriter fingers crossed Essex don’t, especially for those in areas with low rates.

I was hopeful they would reconsider and split Lincolnshire up.
But rates in my area have risen sharply in the past week. Unless there's a specific reason for it, I now presume we are Tier 3 for the longhual.
Ironically, it was acknowledged at the beginning that our bit of Lincolnshire didn't need the stuff like the mass testing as the rates were too low... It was just Lincoln and Boston.

I’m in north london with children in primary school. The big name private secondary schools are all absolutely rife with covid currently with various year groups bring sent home. It is now definitely filtering down to the primaries - my local state school has 3 year groups at home due to pupils testing positive. My private school child is home self isolating after 2 classmates tested positive ( year 2) Most mums I know have a self isolating child/ someone who’s kids have just finished isolating ... it’s everywhere and has only just exploded this month for us here ... last month i didn’t hear of a single case around here

Parts of Leicestershire to go down to tier 2. Rates have gone from being way above the national average to well below.
And the parts of I’m thinking of are marginal constituencies.

@Denthelp

"why would anyone benefit for discriminating against the north?"

The Torys hate the North. It's were unions and Labour had a stronghold. They systematically moved employment out of the North. Create poverty and you can exploit people. Even the centralising that went on over Labs etc etc during this crisis worked to our detriment. Putting areas in higher tiers, even though they've got lower rates than London has never been justified. As our MPs have said, they don't give a shit about jobs and businesses in the North.

I think that Liverpool was only put into tier 2 because protests were growing and they knew that our Mayor (who backed lock down) was due to get arrested.

Hang on a sec....I don't like the Tories, but this is pretty simplistic. There are plenty of northern Tory MPs & voters, particularly in less urbanised areas but also in some cities. I live in the East Riding of Yorks and our constituencies & council have been Tory since the dawn of time. And London is very much a Labour stronghold with a very influential London mayor.

As for predictions, I'm actually pretty hopeful that chunks of the north will go into Tier 2. We're currently Tier 3 but case numbers have decreased massively over the past month. Even our nearest big city (Hull) could make a good case for Tier 2 I think. And the government only averted a bigger Tory party rebellion by basically hinting that a move down before Christmas was a real possibility for at least some Tier 3 places, so MPs will completely lose their shit if that doesn' happen in areas like mine where cases etc have very clearly fallen a lot

Hopefully some of the lower case areas that are in tier 3 just because they happen to be in certain counties will go to tier 2. I doubt London will going tier 3 even if it should because of the opposition to it.

@Hardbackwriter

I think Essex will go into tier 3. I hope it doesn't - I live there, but in an area with case numbers well below the national average - but I think it will.

I'm hoping they at least split Essex into North and South. Where I am we're under half the national average and have been stable since before the November lockdown. They really need to understand that there is a huge difference between rural, North Essex and much more urban South Essex. It really is like being in a different county.

I'm assuming the mass testing of students this week will make the data for next week look quite bad?

I’m in Woking, Surrey. Cases here have not dropped at all and are rising daily. Hopefully as the rest of Surrey is doing far better, we can stay in tier 2, but if it’s based on just Woking, I think we will be in tier 3.

There’s more to tiers than just numbers though - they’re also driven by how well the local hospitals are able to cope.

London numbers are on the rise (though so far nowhere near as high as many Northern cities were in mid-October) but with a younger population each case is less likely to end up in hospital.

Personally as a Londoner I wouldn’t be against a rise to Tier 3 from a purely selfish POV because we’re raising the drawbridge prior to a trip to visit vulnerable relatives at Xmas so we wouldn’t want to go to restaurants anyway and I’d quite like access to on-demand testing for reassurance purposes before we go. But it would be a sad blow to the hospitality industry.

Tier 2 for us in Derbyshire I hope, as our cases are falling

They were never that high For tier 3 in the first place!

[quote Ponoka7]@Denthelp

"why would anyone benefit for discriminating against the north?"

The Torys hate the North. It's were unions and Labour had a stronghold. They systematically moved employment out of the North. Create poverty and you can exploit people. Even the centralising that went on over Labs etc etc during this crisis worked to our detriment. Putting areas in higher tiers, even though they've got lower rates than London has never been justified. As our MPs have said, they don't give a shit about jobs and businesses in the North.

I think that Liverpool was only put into tier 2 because protests were growing and they knew that our Mayor (who backed lock down) was due to get arrested.[/quote]
Nothing to do with rates now being a quarter of what they were then??

I just can't believe the Government will change very much at all before the 5 day Christmas break. Might be a couple that switch tiers, but the vast majority of places will stay the same, surely?