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Original poster

How soon can we drop the Tiers ?

53 replies

Tropicana218 · 05/12/2020 14:35

Apologies if this has been done already. But I believe they are starting vaccinations next week ?
I know life as we knew it isn't round the corner but when do people expect that this Tier system and not being allowed to see people can be dropped ?

OP posts:
Waxonwaxoff0 · 05/12/2020 14:38

Depends. It will be voted on again in parliament in January I believe whether to be dropped by February or continue until the end of March.

KiposWonderbeasts · 05/12/2020 14:39

I’m assuming sometime in spring if the vaccine goes well.

Tinselandbaubauls · 05/12/2020 15:01

New cases are falling quite rapidly already. If they continue to do so I imagine another few months at most.

AcornAutumn · 05/12/2020 15:02

The Coronavirus Act is in place for two years.

I would use that as a timeframe.

lubeybooby · 05/12/2020 15:09

Apologies for the gloom. The vaccine is going to take an absolute age to fully roll out and we're bound to bugger it up and delay it too somehow

Numbers are still absolutely shite, going down for now and will be for a week or so as an after effect of lockdown but they are nowhere near good enough and will rise again

Plus not enough people are going to uptake the vaccine for herd immunity due to conspiracy anti vaxx horseshite

This is going to be a much longer haul than next spring, I think.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong but pretty sure thing are going to be pretty restricted on and off for a while yet.

How soon can we drop the Tiers ?
ElephantWhaleRabbit · 05/12/2020 15:55

@lubeybooby

Apologies for the gloom. The vaccine is going to take an absolute age to fully roll out and we're bound to bugger it up and delay it too somehow

Numbers are still absolutely shite, going down for now and will be for a week or so as an after effect of lockdown but they are nowhere near good enough and will rise again

Plus not enough people are going to uptake the vaccine for herd immunity due to conspiracy anti vaxx horseshite

This is going to be a much longer haul than next spring, I think.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong but pretty sure thing are going to be pretty restricted on and off for a while yet.

I'm inclined to agree sadly. I was more positive but the vaccine take-up isn't going to be sufficient in my view, certainly not in the short term. The armchair vaccine "experts" are largely to blame, spouting their utter bilge. Slow handclap all around.
Unsurekitten84 · 05/12/2020 18:00

Indefinitely

MarshmallowManiac · 05/12/2020 18:05

Of course and Brexit is happening at the same time, so I would totally agree with you lubey

Eng123 · 05/12/2020 18:08

2-5 years.

Farahilda · 05/12/2020 18:11

When the numbers of serious cases are low enough that pressure on the NHS eases.

Spring is quite likely, assuming the vaccination programme makes a good start, and then the increasing strength of the sun also has a suppressing effect

JacobReesMogadishu · 05/12/2020 18:14

I agree sadly with the long term view of probably years. Hopefully most places will be in tier 1. Tier rules may well be tweaked. But ultimately the govt will keep control of being able to bung areas back up levels when there’s a spike in cases.

So years, possibly decades. We’ll never eliminate this virus. It’s here for ever.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 05/12/2020 18:18

People saying years - where do you think the money is going to come from to keep shutting things? It won't happen.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 05/12/2020 18:19

We don't need to eliminate the virus. Once people are vaccinated it will become like any other illness and we will learn to live with it.

Riapia · 05/12/2020 18:28

I won’t mind if we can keep the social distancing bit permanently .
Everything else go back to normal.

JacobReesMogadishu · 05/12/2020 18:32

@Waxonwaxoff0

We don't need to eliminate the virus. Once people are vaccinated it will become like any other illness and we will learn to live with it.
I agree. And I think the tier system will be part of that. The majority of the time we’ll be in level 1 or they’ll make a level 0. But the system will remain so any local outbreaks can be dealt with.
Northernbeachbum · 05/12/2020 18:35

Surely it will not be sustainable long term or how would new relationships ever begin? Or how would you date?

I think they will be fully gone by end of 2021 as I think there will be a degree of expectation upon us to be vaccinated or live with the risk (fully understand certain groups cant be vaccinated). So basically how we deal with every other virus now!

Northernbeachbum · 05/12/2020 18:36

Should point out they arent the only issue with the tiers but the first I thought of

Fizbosshoes · 05/12/2020 18:38

I think that despite the vaccine programme starting, there will likely be a surge after Christmas, when the restrictions are relaxed for a few days.
Remember its a month from having vaccine shot #1 to being considered protected. So the first people to have the vaccine will be fully immunised by mid january.
I think the tier system will probably be in place and varying restrictions until at least spring.
But I'm hopeful things will start to return to normal after that.

LivinLaVidaLoki · 05/12/2020 18:43

@Waxonwaxoff0

People saying years - where do you think the money is going to come from to keep shutting things? It won't happen.
This ^
Eng123 · 05/12/2020 18:46

I think they will exit for a few years to come though most areas will be in a low tier with almost no restrictions.

timeforawine · 05/12/2020 18:47

I'm thinking early summer. People won't put up with this for years, that's ridiculous!
We need enough people to get the vaccine and it will become like flu, learn to live with it. We haven't eliminated flu yet we don't shut down

Torvean32 · 05/12/2020 18:53

I think we will see changes starting after Easter going into summer.

nannynick · 05/12/2020 18:55

Summer, maybe Autumn maybe later. Could there be reductions in the restrictions before then, yes perhaps for those who are vaccinated. A lot of us though are not going to be vaccinated for a long time as we are not old, don't have long term health conditions, don't work in a job that is deemed to be essential that we are vaccinated to do the work.

rosie1959 · 05/12/2020 18:58

If the Oxford vaccine is approved hopefully things will move quicker. The uptake is important but if there is a high uptake in the over 50s then this will apparently drop the death rate by up to 99%.
If the death rate drops I cannot see any need for tiers

cantkeepawayforever · 05/12/2020 19:00

There is also the point that no-one knows how long the vaccination will be effective for.

One scenario is it needs to be renewed annually, in which case the tail end of the final people being vaccinated for Winter 20-21 will bump into the start of the vaccination of the vulnerable (immunity typically lasts less long when the recipients are elderly) for Winter 21-22.

Supposing that we are able to have full population, effective vaccination rollout from September 2021, hitting pretty much everyone by November / December (like the 'flu vaccine), then I anticipate next winter will be much more normal, but not completely so.

If we sit back after the first vaccination wave and don't immediately scale up again for next year (with the full population being covered very rapidly) then I think this will indeed trail onward for several years.