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Original poster

How soon can we drop the Tiers ?

53 replies

Tropicana218 · 05/12/2020 14:35

Apologies if this has been done already. But I believe they are starting vaccinations next week ?
I know life as we knew it isn't round the corner but when do people expect that this Tier system and not being allowed to see people can be dropped ?

OP posts:
Eng123 · 05/12/2020 19:07

I imagine that full vacination programme will take in excess of 2 years. In the meantime we will see local breakouts and need local measures. However I would foresee the restrictions in most areas without a breakout to be negligible. Also we could see other emergent diseases which whilst not as serious could be controlled similarly. So yes years but maybe not as we know it!

Eng123 · 05/12/2020 19:09

Also there are a lot of selfish people out there who will refuse to vaccinate because its fashionable or they "don't like experts"!

RandomMess · 05/12/2020 19:14

Once the death rate is sorted I wonder if the issue of the cost and implications of long Covid will be considered.

BefuddledPerson · 05/12/2020 19:16

@Waxonwaxoff0

People saying years - where do you think the money is going to come from to keep shutting things? It won't happen.
People said the first lockdown wouldn't happen. Then they said the second lockdown wouldn't happen....
Waxonwaxoff0 · 05/12/2020 19:28

Befuddled people also said there wouldn't be a vaccine for years or wouldn't ever be one.

BefuddledPerson · 05/12/2020 19:36

@Waxonwaxoff0

Befuddled people also said there wouldn't be a vaccine for years or wouldn't ever be one.
Yes quite, I think 'it won't happen' is total bollocks with all things covid.
TicTacTwo · 05/12/2020 19:38

Considering that the millions of Pfizer vaccines that we were getting is now 800k and it's not known when the next batch can come from Belgium because of Brexit I would assume that this time next year we won't have vaccinated everyone. I hope by summer 2021 we will see signification improvement but we'll need negative Covid tests before some activities like gigs and holidays since it will take that long to vaccinate the over 50s, CEV and carers and NHS staff.
A very big worry is whether vaccinated people can transmit the virus.

Hayeahnobut · 05/12/2020 19:39

Once the death rate is sorted I wonder if the issue of the cost and implications of long Covid will be considered.

Not a hope. Those left with long term health issues will be treated as dismally as those of us who were ill/ disabled before the pandemic.

Waxonwaxoff0 · 05/12/2020 19:40

Yes, maybe saying "it won't happen" is a bit misguided, but we have a vaccine now so I would say very unlikely going forward. We have something that we didn't have previously.

Hayeahnobut · 05/12/2020 19:41

Like Tic, I worry that the vaccine rollout will be another test and trace, Nightingales, PPE farce, over promising and under delivering.

rosie1959 · 05/12/2020 19:44

I really don’t think Brexit will have an effect this is too important what’s to stop it being flown over

RandomMess · 05/12/2020 19:47

@Hayeahnobut yes I agree but catching Covid worries me because of that...

It feels like if you're under 50 there is no concern at the risks of catching it ConfusedSad I would like to hope they would still work on stopping local outbreaks post vaccination for the over 50s.

BefuddledPerson · 05/12/2020 20:25

@rosie1959

I really don’t think Brexit will have an effect this is too important what’s to stop it being flown over
Brexit may have an effect. Hopefully not but it isn't about plane etc., It's about international trade law.
JacobReesMogadishu · 05/12/2020 20:27

@Waxonwaxoff0

Yes, maybe saying "it won't happen" is a bit misguided, but we have a vaccine now so I would say very unlikely going forward. We have something that we didn't have previously.
But we don’t yet have something we didn’t have previously.

It’s already looking like we’re not going to get as much as this vaccine as was initially thought. Typical govt bullshit bollocks, promising millions which actually is 800,000. We may not get anymore doses. And I don’t believe for one minute that the distribution of this 800,000 will go smoothly. They don’t seem to be able to organise anything.

I’m not being positive until the Oxford vaccine gets the go ahead and even then if it only possibly has a 65% effectiveness rate how much of a difference will it make? I read 60% of the population need to be effectively vaccinated for the vaccine to make a difference. Which means we pretty much need 100% of people vaccinated to get the 60% of people effectively vaccinated. And they reckon 40% of people may refuse to have it. So we’ll only have 30% of the population effectively vaccinated.

BefuddledPerson · 05/12/2020 20:27

@Hayeahnobut

Like Tic, I worry that the vaccine rollout will be another test and trace, Nightingales, PPE farce, over promising and under delivering.
Yes quite, saw a cartoon the other day where the scientist hands the vaccine to Hancock... who promptly drops it.

Worryingly the best predictor of future performance is past performance, but I am keeping fingers crossed for a change of behaviour from the government.

Katie517 · 06/12/2020 00:39

Sorry but all those saying “years” do you actually believe this or is it scaremongering? because to be honest I really don’t understand how people think this will be possible. The economy is already destroyed, the hospitality and travel industry is on its knees, people are well and truly fed up of restrictions to the point where a huge percentage of people are ignoring them and people can honestly say they think tiers will be in place for years!?! I would say come April we will be in a very good place and as the government said will need to start relying on personal responsibility rather than enforced measures.

RoseMartha · 06/12/2020 00:48

I cant see it being anytime soon. Would not surprise me if tiers went on another 2+ years. However I think they might bring some milder tiers in at some point, which are closer to normal.

PirateCatQueen · 06/12/2020 00:59

Six months to a year.

Expect there will be another surge after Christmas, then the vaccine roll out will be pretty slow.

I think it’s likely to be this time next year before everyone’s vaccinated, as there will likely be bumps on the road.

They don’t know if vaccination prevents a symptomatic transmission, so percentage of population needing to be vaccinated before safety markedly improves could be quite high.

Then there’s also the matter of the virus mutating so an updated vaccine is needed, how long vaccination protects people for. These things are a bit unknown. They don’t know how long the vaccine remains effective for yet and I’m not sure if the mutation found in Danish mink has been successfully contained yet.

MrsFezziwig · 06/12/2020 01:20

Something that puzzles me: vaccination of older people will solve the problem of pressure on hospital services, fine. But if vaccine not available for say the under 50s, if we do away with social distancing, restrictions etc., will there not be rising numbers of cases in that age group? Which of course won’t be a problem as cases won’t be serious enough to need hospitalisation, but may need 2-3 weeks off work and in some cases may lead to Long Covid, thus impacting on the workforce, services etc.

safariboot · 06/12/2020 01:32

Don't be surprised when "lockdown 3" is announced. Tiers version 1 was wholly inadequate at suppressing the virus. The November lockdown barely controlled it; it took the whole month to get a decrease that matched a week's increase in October. I see Tiers 2 as making a lot of the same mistakes, in particular focussing too much on absolute case numbers and not on whether they are increasing or decreasing. If cases are low but rising, that's like a small fire in a wastebasket, and our government's approach is to let it become a big fire before doing anything.

JacobReesMogadishu · 06/12/2020 07:10

@Katie517

Sorry but all those saying “years” do you actually believe this or is it scaremongering? because to be honest I really don’t understand how people think this will be possible. The economy is already destroyed, the hospitality and travel industry is on its knees, people are well and truly fed up of restrictions to the point where a huge percentage of people are ignoring them and people can honestly say they think tiers will be in place for years!?! I would say come April we will be in a very good place and as the government said will need to start relying on personal responsibility rather than enforced measures.
I genuinely believe this. Back in Jan/Feb when I was telling friends I was worried about this virus and posting on here I was worried about it I was told I was scaremongering. Look what happened. Even I never dreamt the impact would be so great or that lockdowns would have been so severe.

I do think it will be years, genuinely believe this. I hope I’m wrong. But as I’ve repeatedly said although I think it will be years I don’t think it will be as severe as currently tiers, etc. So it will be smaller areas for shorter times which go into higher tiers to contain small outbreaks.

divafever99 · 06/12/2020 07:21

Here in Greater Manchester it feels we never really came out of the first lockdown, and whilst many were enjoying some freedom over the summer, we have had increased restrictions imposed since July. There is no way our economy can sustain years of tiers, just several months has been so damaging for the businesses and people in GM.

Ethelfleda · 06/12/2020 08:05

Why on earth did I click on this thread??
If this shit is going to actually carry on for years - decades even then what the fuck is the point of living? And that’s not hyperbole. I genuinely think I wouldn’t be able to carry on if that’s the case.

Can they seriously just completely ignore all
Of the negative effects of lockdowns to control a virus that has a fucking vaccine?? (Or multiple vaccines!)

Will they seriously just let victims of DV, poor mental health, lack of hospital appointments etc just fucking rot?? And carry on with the ‘if it’s not Covid, it’s not tragic’ narrative??

AuntieStella · 06/12/2020 08:16

Lockdown 3 will probably happen around mid/late-January when cases acquired via Christmas bubbles (and illicit New Year ones) start to spread once people are back home. Tiers again by March

But the virus was more easily suppressed in the summer, and as the sun regains its strength, then tiers would loosen anyhow. And more of the highest risk people will be vaccinated, reducing the number of serious cases and consequently the level of demand on NHS. Perhaps from about Easter there could be considerable relaxation of restrictions, and if vaccinations go well, then no need to reimpose much in the autumn

Some 'ifs' n that (mainly icw the vaccination programme) but the seasonality is something that people have been talking about for some time (though Aussies who are seeing that little clusters can rapidly become clumps if not firmly and rapidly quashed, might have a different view). And of course those months Jan-April can seem a terribly long SAD wait until spring in the best of years

JS87 · 06/12/2020 09:03

It might depend on the uptake of the vaccine amongst the vulnerable. It’s it’s poor the relaxing restrictions will lead to a rapid increase in cases on the level of March or worse and hospitalisations will still be too high. They’ll then need to wait till under 50s are vaccinated too to get sufficient immunity to decrease the R rate.