How likely will this be by May 2021

[GreeceBaby]

On a whim I booked a fully refundable holiday to Greece for the end of May 2021.

How likely do you think it is I'll be able to go? I'm 40 with asthma so no idea if I'll have been vaccinated by then.

A = highly likely / get packing!
B = not sure
C = never going to happen

C

This shits going on for a long time yet.

B - these things were happening in August before it all kicked off again (and without a vaccine) so by May we could be seeing a similar situation to that.

I imagine there will be a push come April time to get things as close to normal as they can. By then it will be around 18 months so a normal point for things to look better even without scientific/medical intervention.

I would expect some measures though (testing at the airport/showing proof of a negative test/vaccine/not all of it open/mask wearing at points)

I’m somewhere in between A and B. People managed to go abroad this summer and by May we’ll have many vaccinated and quick result testing. I’d be cautiously optimistic.

I think it's likely you'll be able to go, but less certain whether you'd want to - you can go to Greece on holiday today, but you need proof of a negative COVID test, they can require you to take an extra test and then isolate on arrival and they're in a lockdown, with curfew, so it'd be a shit holiday - and then you'd have to isolate for two weeks on return.

A/B. Greece will need to reopen to tourists this year to survive. Airlines will have to begin operating again. People managed trips abroad this year (whether it was wise or not is another issue).

B

Greece depends massively on tourism and no way they will want another dead season. Same with the aviation business. By then, vaccination programmes will be well underway across Europe and while there may still be some SD measures in place, I'd say there's a very good chance your holiday will go ahead. Thinking of booking one myself!

It’s likely you’ll be able to go. But you probably won’t have been vaccinated by then as your under 50 and asthma (unless very servers) isn’t on the priority list for vaccination. You may also have to quarantine after the holiday or take a test.

A, with rapid testing at both ends.

B