Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

New ONS stats here www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/4december2020#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

Secondary school students still highest risk of all groups BUT there are declines in % positive in all groups, which is wonderful!

If only it could stay as low as this till we all can get vaccinated!

Anyone shared this yet?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/940859/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W49.pdf

Can any of you data people shed any light on what’s going on with rates in the East? Looking at RP’s graph on Twitter we’ve definitely gone up again with a larger Monday spike than last week....
Obviously rates are still “low” compared to lots of others.... but what can explain the rise before lockdown even finished??

Today’s cases and deaths about the same as last Friday. Are we levelling off?

@TeaInTheGarden

Luton not helping.... 27th worst in the table for the country.

Local hospital not good and yet been put tier 2....
Only going to get worse

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

I think that’s just England - 16298 for the UK compared to 16022 on 27th.

Does look to be levelling off overall to me. Which is too soon to be coming out of lockdown only 2 days ago. Might be partly because the fall during lockdown was largely caused by big falls in the North West, while other areas (London in particular) seemed unaffected by the lockdown. I'm not sure why this is. Maybe lockdown rules having limited impact and local flare ups just burning out of their own accord (or due to people changing behaviour as they become scared of catching it)?

I think closing pubs and hospitality drove much of the Manchester rate drop. All the other restrictions made no difference over months, then as soon as pubs closed our rates dropped suddenly (except in under-15s). No doubt that people together in enclosed spaces with no masks is a driver of virus spread, even without alcohol-led social distancing breakdown.

I think -don't know per say- that involuntary school closures, partial of full, also led to decreasing numbers. But given how we don't have data on that it's more of an educated guess.

35000 lateral flow test reported today. When the tests actually took place is not made clear, and I’d imagine a slight lag as compared with the Oct tests.

If Liverpool is anything to go by lateral flow picked up few cases relative to the number being tested. Whether any volume testing at unis will have a similar profile remains to be seen.

Looking at the last 7 days as compared with the previous 7 cases in London overall have plateaued, but that overall total masks a range of increasing, flat and decreasing cases between boroughs.

Continue to see big falls in north west and north east, in contrast to a much slower pace - although still declining - in south east and east of England. Looks like the majority of districts in Kent plus Medway unitary show an increase in rates for exampl.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel yes it is just England. But remember to look at rolling average not day to day.... the rolling average is down. You can't make assessments based on just comparing 2 days.

Agreed it is too early for a levelling off.
Hope not

My council posted a massive number yesterday though... same as the day before lockdown 🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️

coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/TableCumulative_Rate_20201204.html
Updated table by RP131 of boroughs by rate by tier

35 boroughs with rates over the UK average that are in tier 2. Of these, 25 are increasing week on week. 16 of these are London boroughs.

42 boroughs with rates below the UK average that are in tier 3. Of these, 36 are decreasing week on week.

Appreciate it’s not the only criteria but there is a strong argument for not waiting until 16 December to review these. It’s dangerous for the areas which are in the increase, and unnecessarily damaging the the economy of those areas that are improving.

I’m confused about Luton as it still seems to be falling according to covid messenger (although I know it’s been pretty bad)
So I’m wondering if there’s another area that’s taken over?
Central beds rates have been relatively low throughout and still falling at the moment.

also an argument perhaps for not basing any decisions on a 2 day lag when calculating case rates; c.70% of cases reported today had specimen dates from the previous two days.

More generally I think it is too early to review tier decisions - lets face it the cases coming through at the moment, and probably for the next week, will have been caught during lockdown. So it will be at least another week before the tier impacts start to show.

What RP's numbers - fundamental data quality issues aside which given most his output is unusual - do suggest is that placing London overall in Tier 2 was and remains a questionable decision. Whereas Kent, Lincolnshire, Lancashire look on balance to be right.

@TeaInTheGarden maybe falling from pretty high. Has a long way to go

@TeaInTheGarden

@PrayingandHoping oh yes I know it’s been really high. Still is. But can that explain cases in the easy rising? Trying to figure out if statistically this could happen if other areas have dropped more..?! Making my brain hurt though.

@TeaInTheGarden

I’m confused about Luton as it still seems to be falling according to covid messenger (although I know it’s been pretty bad) So I’m wondering if there’s another area that’s taken over? Central beds rates have been relatively low throughout and still falling at the moment.

@TeaInTheGarden Luton seems a bit all over the place. This is daily cases plus the moving 7 day rate per 100,000 - seemed to be tapering off last week, but cases for this week so far suggest an upward trajectory again.

@boys3

also an argument perhaps for not basing any decisions on a 2 day lag when calculating case rates; c.70% of cases reported today had specimen dates from the previous two days.

More generally I think it is too early to review tier decisions - lets face it the cases coming through at the moment, and probably for the next week, will have been caught during lockdown. So it will be at least another week before the tier impacts start to show.

What RP's numbers - fundamental data quality issues aside which given most his output is unusual - do suggest is that placing London overall in Tier 2 was and remains a questionable decision. Whereas Kent, Lincolnshire, Lancashire look on balance to be right.

Isn’t the case number for 1 December approx 95% complete as of today? Based on the “daily change in reported cases by specimen date” on the England dashboard, it has been about 95% complete by the 3rd day for the last couple of weeks now?

Oh I’ve just realised what you think he’s done - although he shows the most recent 2 days for reference, these aren’t actually included in the calculation of the rate - so although he’s showing 9 days to 3rd December, the rates are based on the 7 days to 1st December

@ceeveebee yes although his spreadsheet says 2 day lag he has indeed used a 3 day lag which based on today's reporting covers 93.6% of cases.Not wholly unreasonable :)

and his lag reference is to specimen date which makes perfect sense.

East of England based on the most recent really almost complete 7 days (so spec date Monday 30th) as compared with the previous 7

30 of 45 LAs show a fall in case numbers. 648 fewer cases

15 of 45 show an increase in case numbers. 414 cases added.

Net reduction of 234 cases, or 3.1%