Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

It was on the local news tooty. I don't know how to find it myself but our authorities do publish a weekly thing on their SM.

PHE surveillance will be interesting tomorrow, I reckon.

Lincoln lookin pretty dire , too. Much higher than NE Lincs now that was previously bad.

Suffolk has gone blue for the first time today

Christ, 367 new cases in Bham today, we are on par with Medway.

Panicking less as that's per our whole massive city.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307 Who was it that said Wales was missing some cases??? That’s a hell of a spike for tomorrow!

For cases by age: if you filter on the cases dashboard for your local authority then there is on age heat map. You can hover over each age / date or download the data (but it comes as a CSV file)
Eg for Trafford
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Trafford

Chaotic, what else is going on, is there plenty of ventilation where he work's? Do they share kettle, staff room? Take masks off to talk to each other, do they wear their garb in the loo? One work colleuge could have it... And pass it on.

Where I am I find the staff are quite relaxed together. But vigilant about masks elsewhere

@herecomestheSon

So if we have 1.9+ million cases here currently in a population of 67.9 million, that means about 1 in 35 people have the virus. That is a very high number and a steep rise if that's accurate.

It seems very strange that we are still going on with a Christmas free for all, even a muted one.

Isn't that 1.9m number the total cases so far since March ie cumulative? Not current cases.

Rather depressingly my LA was on a nice downward slope after a worrying spike a couple of weeks ago, but is slowly creeping up again.

@TheRubyRedshoes good questions!

Ventilation in terms of open doors and windows isn't great as the store sells very high value items so is very secure. They have air conditioning that DH was under the impression was a good thing but I'm not sure if that's true.

They have several offices and communal rooms to eat in- one at a time and are supposed to wipe it down after use.

Not sure about wearing garb in the loo- is that an issue? I know they are supposed to clean down they'd too.

They have a dedicated cleaning monitor and the store is deep cleaned regularly.

It seems something has gone awry though with such a high infection rate. I'm thinking I have no hope of not catching it from him!

Air con filters are complicated and not necessarily a good thing.
The virus is shed in body waste so yes... If someone has it and took a bowl movement but didn't put the lid down.. And some one goes in soon after all those particles will be in the air.

It's transmission is surfaces but mostly from mouth air to mouth air. I don't think the most stringent deep cleaning on earth would save them if they sit in a poorly ventilated room.

No, we don't have 1.9m current cases - that is the total number of people testing positive since testing began.
Actual infections over that period will be far higher - something around 6.5m I think I worked out the other day.

Last weeks ONS study estimated around current 500k infections, or a 1 in 115 people in England. That will be higher in this weeks study I'm sure.

@TheRubyRedshoes thank you that's really interesting and something that I wish DH's employees had looked into.

So if sharing a bathroom- people should keep their mask on and shut the toilet lid before flushing?

I'm off to try to find information about this to show to DH.

@Quarantino

Rather depressingly my LA was on a nice downward slope after a worrying spike a couple of weeks ago, but is slowly creeping up again.

Yep, same for mine. A lot of areas in the north west that have recently had a steep drop are now starting to creep back up again. I'm dreading January now!

"Littleowl1 I receive your daily emails, thank you. Where my parents live, Bromsgrove, has had new case numbers per day of around 11, 17, 20, that sort of thing, but today showed 96, I’m hoping is a typo? 96 seems insane in a day (it’s a very small town)"

@BanditoShipman You are most welcome. Unfortunately it is not a typo - certainly not on my side. I have just double checked the govt raw data for Bromsgrove in the data release for last night and it has actually been revised up to 97. Here is the raw data by specimen date:

01-Dec 15
02-Dec 17
03-Dec 11
04-Dec 25
05-Dec 10
06-Dec 16
07-Dec 17
08-Dec 34
09-Dec 25
10-Dec 97
11-Dec 14

It certainly looks like an outlier. Perhaps mass testing at a school or workplace identified an outbreak. Hopefully its an isolated outbreak rather than a trend.

@ceeveebee thanks for the direction. I just looked in my area and the cases are sky high in 80 years plus and primary aged children, but low in secondary aged.

So now I'm completely flummoxed.

@BanditoShipman
I realise that didnt format very well when I pasted it in so here it is again. Sorry!

01-Dec: 15
02-Dec: 17
03-Dec: 11
04-Dec: 25
05-Dec: 10
06-Dec: 16
07-Dec: 17
08-Dec: 34
09-Dec: 25
10-Dec: 97
11-Dec: 14

BBC news today reporting Welsh cases "higher than previously thought" - as if anyone could seriously have previously thought they dropped from 2000+ to zero in a day! It seems as if the updating of the dashboard is automated with no checks for obvious errors. And sloppy journalism not to have picked up on it before now.

@Chaotic45

Out of curiosity, roughly what percentage of those who tested positive were symptomatic or feeling poorly at the time of the test?

@littleowl1 , more of them have tested positive this morning via lateral flow tests. So out of 20, there have been 12 positives confirmed by 'regular' tests and a further 5 positive lateral flow tests yet to be confirmed by regular tests.

So I'm summary that is 17 out of 20.

*in summary

For the hardened stattos out there, this is a very interesting analysis and discussion on the Oxford/AZ trial.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/complicated-covid-comparisons-stephen-senn/

In addition to my previous post I wanted to add that out of the 17 people only four felt unwell in any way at all when they were initially tested. Only one had and of the 3 'classic' symptoms.

This was initially via lateral flow as a response to a colleague testing positive hence the reason for testing so many symptomless people.

One by one they are starting to feel unwell.

It is utterly mind boggling.

Could be a superspreader event @Chaotic45 ?