Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

And that's before the 5 day mingling

Wales have also warned that they have a huge backlog incoming - around 11,000 cases to add tomorrow, mainly from 9-15 Dec.

public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

The table of councils is updated with today's data on www.covidmessenger.com

Kent is looking really dire.

Has anyone any thoughts on the new strain. I spoke with a doc yesterday who was skeptical about it being the cause of such large spread in South East.

Cases in under 19s went up 336% in ONE WEEK in my area.

Yes they are grim numbers today. And that's without the Welsh figures included. Good to see they do have a plan for adding these in @patricia though it'll make the charts look even worse tomorrow

Yep -tomorrow's UK numbers will be high 30k I think, which will cause mass panic amongst those who don't realise re. Wales. I really hope the dashboard/PR comms make it clear!

@Piggyinblankets I'm ready for tier 3.... I'm bucks but I reckon beds and bucks will def go tomorrow

Assuming nobody will be moving from 2 to 3?

🤦‍♀️ I mean 2 to 1

It was sounding that way on the news praying. I live in this pocket mas you know, of huge test resistance. I listen to a soundtrack of coughing and spluttering all day but still no cases (allegedly). I reckon my lot would be very shocked to hear we have it bad.

@Firefliess
Why would you like to have AZ better? I'd prefer P. personally. But mostly due to the fact that ppl with autoimmune reaction seem to do better with the mRna design. Key word: seem to be. So no real data/facts.

@TotallyandutterlyMULLED that's what my MP WAS banging on about... funnily enough he's gone v quiet on that front in the last week!!

@Piggyinblankets people round here happy to test. The numbers in our villages has soared this last week! Shocking!!!

I am still reeling from today's numbers.

Look at the change in the cases/100K for councils in Kent week over week.

Maidstone, Sevenoaks, Tonbridge and Malling, Tunbridge Wells.... etc.

Some of these councils have almost doubled week-over-week. And one can't say they were coming from tiny case numbers (so massive w-o-w increases would be unsurprising).

In fact, I do think I should add a county column on the table to make filtering easier so ppl can easily see/group by county and see these trends.

For anyone who missed the link to the table its www.covidmessenger.com

Tichmond MSOAs have shot up from being ligher green to blue and being more blue :( I used to love all shades of blue. I'm not so sure any more....

I’m not sure that today’s numbers are such a surprise especially as it would appear they did ramp up testing Essex, Kent snd those east London boroughs. 62% of cases added today in London, east of England and south east.

By specimen Sunday over 17000 cases so far in England, and looking at a number of the counties such as Essex and Kent their dec 13th spec date numbers are massively up on the previous Sunday.ditto for some of those London boroughs.

I can only see any of the tier changes due to be announced tomorrow being upward.

And as an aside nowhere has a current rate which is any sense could truly be described as low.

Littleowl1 I receive your daily emails, thank you. Where my parents live, Bromsgrove, has had new case numbers per day of around 11, 17, 20, that sort of thing, but today showed 96, I’m hoping is a typo? 96 seems insane in a day (it’s a very small town)

@Melroses

Is anyone still watching the Zoe app?

I have found that every time an area drops into the 1000-2000 zone, instead of changing it to a lighter shade of pink, it changes to grey/not enough data.

Today there are quite a few in East Anglia, southern England, and some others dotted around Cornwall, Northern England and Scotland.

I am still seeing this happen.

Every time the numbers in my area dropped to below the 2000 mark, the area changed to grey/not enough data. Eventually there were many and it turned to light pink for a short while then went back up to darker pink.

This has been followed with a rise in numbers of the govt map with much more dark green.

Over the last few days, this has happened again when numbers have dipped into the under 1000 mark (the lightest colour). Today, W Suffolk and the Portsmouth area (?) have no colour and no data at all.

Bromsgrove - 97 cases on 10th December. Ramped up testing somewhere that day? As it’s specimen date there is no backlog involved.

Atm community transmission is way higher than care/nursing homes
For nov 23-26, England, all age groups
Hospital admission from community: 4,155
from care/nursing homes: 313

So as much as care homes should never be forgotten (it is criminal negligence what they did in spring imo) right now it is not a focus.

Separating into age groups is useless as their data is 0-5/6-17/17-85/85+
No logical cut points, like 16/18, 65,...
I don't know if they are doing this on purpose or not. But I think it's by design.

(from nhs)

Some promising news. Not mink, but ferrets were used to test

Therapeutically administered ribonucleoside analogue MK-4482/EIDD-2801 blocks SARS-CoV-2 transmission in ferrets
(it started as an influenza drug I think)
www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00835-2

So if we have 1.9+ million cases here currently in a population of 67.9 million, that means about 1 in 35 people have the virus. That is a very high number and a steep rise if that's accurate.

It seems very strange that we are still going on with a Christmas free for all, even a muted one.

@TheSun I'd rather have the Pfizer vaccine, given the choice. But I'd take either of them, and the sooner the better. As I'm not over 50 I don't know when I'll be offered either, so vaguely hoping that if they decided to prioritise the more effective Pfizer one for the over 50s they'd then use the Oxford one on the younger people as soon as it's really. But I think it's more likely they will prioritise getting older people done first, rather than making them wait for the better one.

@Piggyinblankets where did you find the age data locally?
Cases in my town have gone up 700% in a week. That is partly because they are small numbers, but I’m interested to know if it’s a school issue.

[quote Firefliess]@TheSun I'd rather have the Pfizer vaccine, given the choice. But I'd take either of them, and the sooner the better. As I'm not over 50 I don't know when I'll be offered either, so vaguely hoping that if they decided to prioritise the more effective Pfizer one for the over 50s they'd then use the Oxford one on the younger people as soon as it's really. But I think it's more likely they will prioritise getting older people done first, rather than making them wait for the better one. [/quote]
Ok, in that context I get it and agree. Let's be fair if the choice is AZ or nothing then yeah, even that is better than nothing.

It's anecdotal but DH works in a store where all employees have masks and visitors, customers are seen by appointment only, screens are used, social distance is maintained, they have worked very hard to be as safe as they can.

11 out of 17 employees have tested positive today and yesterday.

It does seem a very high infection rate, and I can't help wondering about this so called new strain. We are not in London.