BBC1 news tonight

[Pomegranatespompom]

Did anyone watch the poverty and covid report? It was incredibly sad, people living in absolutely awful circumstances. There was no SD/mask wearing,. An utterly depressing watch.

@PolkadotGiraffe it’s also unfair to direct anger at pp who were not involved in lockdown decisions and who are/willing to help. It’s counter productive.

@PolkadotGiraffe - what tf is the point of arguing now that lockdown is bad because we should have closed borders at the beginning when we didn’t? As borders were not closed, that’s not a good argument against the later lockdowns, is it? It just explains why lockdowns became necessary. Also, why argue for track and trace as though this was not attempted when actually it was, but couldn’t keep up? We all know lockdown was the result of a failure to control the virus by other means. It’s the reason we are still having to use it - because we still can’t track and trace effectively, even if we do close our borders, because we still have far too much covid 19 circulating within the community for test, track and trace to work. It is exceedingly tiresome to keep repeating pretending that test, track and trace is sufficient to keep the virus under control in the UK at the moment when it clearly is not - we would just like it to be, and it should be, but it isn’t.

[quote Pomegranatespompom]@PolkadotGiraffe it’s also unfair to direct anger at pp who were not involved in lockdown decisions and who are/willing to help. It’s counter productive.[/quote]
I haven't done that. I haven't been angry at all. I am simply fed up with hearing people moralise who seem to have zero grasp of the statistics. Whitty and Vallance emphasise repeatedly that they are scientists and public health officials so can only advise on that aspect. What is missing is weighing up the costs that SAGE model (hopefully now better than the shamefully inaccurate data used at the start as @TheDailyCarbuncle highlighted) against the opposite effects. It is a balance and it seems many people are aware of the effects on only one side of the scales? Which at this point is crazy. All decisions at this point, with where our Government have landed us, are horrible. But can we at least be rational and honest about what is hanging on each side of the scales and try to balance them as best we can?

I find the thread depressing because so many people completely refuse such facts and statistical analysis, as @TheDailyCarbuncle (who does this as a profession!) tried to provide.

A myopic almost semi-religious view about how to proceed will not help us get out of this situation. And I think actually it was other posters being so dismissive of people trying to discuss it rationally that made me so upset and is counter-productive. We are all involved in these decisions because if we make it clear to our MPs en masse that they do not have democratic consent then they will change direction because they like their jobs. Throwing our hands in the air and saying "we can't change it" while continuing to support approaches that will destroy lives now and for decades is not fixed by dropping supplies off to food banks (although I do that anyway, I am saying it is not enough). And attacked people trying to give people facts, as I've seen on this thread, will only make people more ignorant of what's happening because those with the professional knowledge and insight like that will stop bothering to post.

I should have clarified, I did not mean your posts @PolkadotGiraffe

There are several posters who attacked people in a really unpleasant way, perhaps you have not read those posts?
I think that posting so aggressively, doesn’t inspire people to do more. Much better to say please continue to donate but actually why not to x,y,z as well, rather than berating people.

Also, @PolkadotGiraffe, you did say the BMJ was blaming lockdown for the excess cancer deaths, not Government policy:
“ Why then is the BMJ reporting that 40k to 50k of people will die because they haven't received treatment or diagnosis for cancer, heart and other life threatening diseases, with a further 100k over the next few years, as a result of lockdown? ”

So it is disingenuous of you to subsequently say, “ I didn't say it was because of the latest lockdown, did I? I said it was as a result of how our Government has handled this entire crisis” in response to my post.

It’s not as if we disagree that Government policy has been atrocious, you just don’t seem to think they backed themselves into a corner where lockdowns became necessary and better than the actual alternative, which was to let things keep spiralling out of control. Whereas I do think the country was backed into a corner where lockdown was better than the alternative, rather than the fantasy that this country was capable of world beating test, tack and trace systems.

I think I've read most of it. What is most shocking of all was the people who saw the clip you posted and expressed suprise at how bad it was.

I've lived that way. I escaped, many years ago. Many people have lived this way in our country for centuries. It has never stopped - it's certainly been worse since the pandemic and will get worse again in January after Brexit (even if there is a deal, it will be much worse for us all than what we had before) - but people being shocked people live that way?

I've been there. No food. No heating. No electricity. Invisible. Nobody cares. I was a teenager at the time. It is not new, but we are actively making it worse, as a democratic country (apparently). That means all of us are choosing for people to live in poverty and for lots of people to say they are surprised that this is going on is almost as shocking as the clip you posted itself. It's a long time since that was my life but I'm under no illusions that it's changed for everyone. For many, it gets worse and worse and with the Covid recession plus Brexit it will be the "perfect" storm.

Of course I am not discouraging people from donating to food banks. Quite the opposite. Great if people can do that. But nobody should feel that they can then get on with their day like this problem doesn't exist. It is systemic and it needs fundamental change in our whole social and political system (and to be honest, societal attitudes) to be more than a very thin sticking plaster that wears thinner every year. Otherwise it is like offering some Germoline to someone who has bones poking out of the skin on their leg and expecting it to fix the problem.

@Walkaround

Also, *@PolkadotGiraffe*, you did say the BMJ was blaming lockdown for the excess cancer deaths, not Government policy: “ Why then is the BMJ reporting that 40k to 50k of people will die because they haven't received treatment or diagnosis for cancer, heart and other life threatening diseases, with a further 100k over the next few years, as a result of lockdown? ”

So it is disingenuous of you to subsequently say, “ I didn't say it was because of the latest lockdown, did I? I said it was as a result of how our Government has handled this entire crisis” in response to my post.

It’s not as if we disagree that Government policy has been atrocious, you just don’t seem to think they backed themselves into a corner where lockdowns became necessary and better than the actual alternative, which was to let things keep spiralling out of control. Whereas I do think the country was backed into a corner where lockdown was better than the alternative, rather than the fantasy that this country was capable of world beating test, tack and trace systems.

How is it disingenuous? I said very clearly that the BMJ stated this was one effect of the UK lockdowns, that it would cause 150k+ additional deaths from various conditions other than Covid. You were the one who referred to the latest lockdown, not me. Throughout I have been writing about the overall impacts of various Governments' policies versus others.

@PolkadotGiraffe - No, I asked whether the BMJ article was referring to the effects of the first lockdown, or lockdowns in general (because I have only read an article referring to the former in the BMJ), and you then responded that you were talking about Government policy in general, which is a rather disingenuous response if you ask me!

Some posters like yourself are angry that people were shocked, as if it’s somehow pp fault. But how can you expect people to know ? I have had patients with terrible lives, those stories never leave you, we do all we can to help with housing, finance, support. But you can’t really expect everyone to know, some people live in a bubble (not a criticism). Yes we need to make changes, I think one of my first posts was that we had badly let people down. The angry posts aren’t helping people engage.

[quote Walkaround]@PolkadotGiraffe - No, I asked whether the BMJ article was referring to the effects of the first lockdown, or lockdowns in general (because I have only read an article referring to the former in the BMJ), and you then responded that you were talking about Government policy in general, which is a rather disingenuous response if you ask me![/quote]
How is it disingenuous for me to answer your question? And like I said, all of the articles are available online. I presume you've found them now.

@PolkadotGiraffe

I haven't yet RTFT but I have to say I agree with *@TheDailyCarbuncle*. Just like with Brexit people are reacting emotionally and believing tabloid headlines rather than looking at facts.

Initially there was a good case for lockdown: to stop the virus becoming endemic in the UK population until we knew what we were dealing with. In Jan and Feb many of us asked MPs to do this. We are an island, we saw what was happening in China then Italy and Spain. But Boris went off on holiday and our requests were ignored until it was too late. Friends accused me of "scaremongering".

At that point our fate was pretty much sealed, and it has been nothing but mismanagement since. Anyone familiar with Boris' professional history should not be surprised frankly.

I found this video extremely upsetting, and can really empathise as I've been that poor before, with no food, no electricity, no heating etc. And nobody cared. I am now very lucky personally but it's totally unacceptable for people in a developed country to be living like that and lockdowns are causing more damage now than they are preventing. It's hard to see how anybody could deny it (the Government's claim it was "impossible" to produce a cost/ benefit analysis of this even though that is meant to be a requirement for Government policy changes speaks volumes). The worst recession in 300 years and that's before we add on all of the Brexit job losses, price hikes, GBP devaluation and supply chain issues. Yes Covid is horrible but believe me, things are going to get very ugly.

There are no good choices left at this point but to blindly follow the Government's rhetoric without considering wider impacts is illogical and will do much harm for many years to come. And I say all of this as someone suffering from long Covid who has been unwell since April.

If anybody is interested in factual and staristical analysis the FT has some really good articles and the comments section is full of intelligent discussion on these topics.

This particular comment from September (not mine) really struck me, if anybody is interested in weighing up the human and economic costs of lockdowns:

"Those who defend such [lockdown] measures need to understand the facts and statistics and clearly don't, because i suspect they are retired and have a pension, work in the public sector so don't need to worry about losing their job, or are independently wealthy.

So lets be clear who is dying, 50% of deaths have happened in care homes, 95% of deaths are those over 60, mostly with underlying health issues, the rest below 60 have underlying health issues.

Children and healthy adults don't die from COVID, the one case that does, is one in a million.

The vulnerable groups should undoubtedly be given the protection and means to shield, but not at the cost of the 99.99% of the population this doesn't apply to. As the death rate calculated in the Economist is 0.01%....

...So, for this tiny fraction of the world population, which yes could be a few million people dying, which nobody wants, is killing or is going to kill even more people with the actions the UK and other governments are taking. Facts:

• UNICEF - 150m children have been plunged in to poverty due to COVID restrictions, which will either kill them or reduce their life expectancy. In India it is being reported that 300k of children will die of malnutrition because of Lockdown.

• In the UK the FT and BMJ, have reported that 40k to 50k of people will die because they haven't received treatment or diagnosis for cancer, heart and other life threatening diseases, with a further 100k over the next few years. I personally have two friends who have their cancer treatment on hold in their late 30's, who are scared to death.

• The closure of education destroys the life chances of children and young adults, which leads to reduction in life chances and life expectancy.

• Woman and Children are being recorded in record numbers being abused, mental health and drugs services cannot cope with the influx. That is first hand from a Doctor i personally know and a councilor in the NHS.

• Industries have been decimated, leading to long term unemployment, again reducing life expectancy and pushing people in to poverty.

If you cannot see that the cure we are applying is worse than the actual disease itself, you must be completely selfish, stupid and blind.

What ever is left of economies after this, be sure there will be no additional health care spending, as there wont be enough taxes to pay for it. Its basic economics, that if we don't get the economy moving, there will be no spending, no taxation and a reduced level of health care, again reducing life expectancy and treatment for people. Its not rocket science, its logic.

So in short, it is plainly clear to anyone with half a brain, that we are going to kill more people by our actions of lockdowns and restrictions, than the virus ever will, as the above points i have made will be repeated the world over.

We take decisions everyday in healthcare systems around the world, that an older life is worth less than a younger life, its a fact, because we have limited resources, and a child has their whole life ahead of them, i know its sounds cold, but there is a cost benefit analysis that goes on, and it is common sense to prolong someones life at 15 or 20, compared to someone at 85 and we make that decision everyday.

I am not saying that we should let vulnerable people die, i am saying that they have to take responsibility for shielding themselves, and as a society we should give them the support needed, but not at the cost of killing people with longer lives to lead, and destroying their life chances.

Everyone else should be allowed to get on with life, with basic restrictions in place to help, but to more normalized patterns, so that we can get the world moving and save further despair to the 99.99% of people who COVID wont touch, other than a few days in bed in the overwhelming majority of cases, with some 80% of people being completely symptom free.

So it is not we who are selfish that want to get on with life now, we have done our bit, we have done more than enough. It is the turn of the vulnerable, their the ones who are being selfish, say your not to the children the world over your killing and plunging in to poverty.

Finally, the government are completely tone deaf, inept, incompetent and lots more, with a media that should be ashamed of itself for its lies, reckless reporting and facts that have been skewed.

Boris, Matt, Pritti, Grant etc should be ashamed of themselves for how badly they have performed, with no strategy and zero integrity. Matt Hancock being the biggest comedy act. BJ really has surrounded himself with the inept team to ever form a government."

Absolutely this!

I think the issue here is “lockdown” doesn’t mean the same thing to everyone. Focused lockdown v broad lockdown is all still lockdown. Closing borders is a type of lockdown - oddly something people who don’t like lockdowns but do like border controls seem to ignore. The first lockdown and subsequent lockdowns have been different. They are better than doing nothing, or the pathetic test, track and trace system that was supposed to be world beating, but wasn’t.

@TheDailyCarbuncle

There's an element of humour to that of course *@MercyBooth* but tbh I find it unbelievable that so many people have accepted and even welcomed the idea that drinking with a friend is against the law. The rules in Wales are particularly heinous - 'allowing' pubs to open but essentially cutting them off at the knees by not allowing them to sell their main product. It's like saying 'butchers can open but meat is banned.' Of course, they can then claim that those businesses are functioning and therefore don't require support, meaning that more people are pushed further and further towards ruin.

It's fucking ridiculous.

It is the same in Scotland. Totally ridiculous.

That guy in Wales is a complete idiot.

@MercyBooth

probably living in council homes which they don’t risk losing

I live in social housing. Im also child free by choice. Nice dig at tenants there. In this latest lockdown the reason some businesses were closed was to enable children to keep going to school. I dont have a problem with that................except when im

then othered for living in a council property.

@TheDailyCarbuncle Totally agree. I saw a picture of an A blackboard on Twitter a while ago. Written on it in chalk was "Lockdown is the middle class staying at home while working class people bring them things"

True re your last para. Mumsnet was full of those people. Berating everyone else who didn’t do what they did as “selfish” and indeed made out that they were doing the people in low paid jobs a favour by staying cocooned at home and expecting those people to keep the world turning for them.

@Pomegranatespompom

Some posters like yourself are angry that people were shocked, as if it’s somehow pp fault. But how can you expect people to know ? I have had patients with terrible lives, those stories never leave you, we do all we can to help with housing, finance, support. But you can’t really expect everyone to know, some people live in a bubble (not a criticism). Yes we need to make changes, I think one of my first posts was that we had badly let people down. The angry posts aren’t helping people engage.

I'm not angry. I am sad. Sad about so many people suffering, so many children hungry and cold, and my God will their numbers grow the next few years with the mega-recession about to hit us plus Covid. And so many people saying they had no idea it was happening.

To put it in context, the whole financial crisis was a 3-4% drop in GDP, over years. In April this year - in one month - there was an 11% drop and it recovered a little in summer and has continued to go down. The Government is masking the effects a bit for now but with no proper system for a social safety net/ educations/ skills/ business startups this will hit everyone next year like being smacked over the head with a hammer. It will make the recessions of previous decades look like a walk in the park. But because they haven't supported businesses properly many will close so fewer jobs and much less tax revenue which means less money for the NHS, education etc so a downwards spiral. It is basic economics. Then just for fun you add Brexit and make more businesses go bust and screw supply chains and halt inward investment...

I'm very lucky that at the moment I have a lovely house for my children, a high income, warm home, lots of food, not dependent on a man who could mess it up for us, etc. I worked so, so hard to make that happen but many people can't do that, they never escape as I did. And the fact that many other people seem unaware that this kind of poverty is the whole of life for lots of people in our own country makes me very sad. And I suppose explains why it is continually ignored.

That isn't the case in most of the EU countries you know. Most of them are baffled how such a rich country as ours lets children grow up in poverty. All I am saying is that while donating to food banks is great, it won't come close to fixing it.

I think a bit more honesty is required on the reality of telling the vulnerable to shield themselves: the vulnerable will be incapable of shielding themselves and will either clog up our NHS beds while dying, getting in the way of fitter people who have been in car accidents, or younger people being treated for cancer, or will need to be left to die without treatment outside of hospital, so as not to overwhelm the NHS and stop it being able to treat the better prospects effectively.

@MadameBlobby I saw a Twitter poll about him. None of the choices were complimentary.

@Walkaround

I think a bit more honesty is required on the reality of telling the vulnerable to shield themselves: the vulnerable will be incapable of shielding themselves and will either clog up our NHS beds while dying, getting in the way of fitter people who have been in car accidents, or younger people being treated for cancer, or will need to be left to die without treatment outside of hospital, so as not to overwhelm the NHS and stop it being able to treat the better prospects effectively.

I mean this as gently as possible, but did you read @TheDailyCarbuncle's posts? This is a fallacy. And nobody was suggesting they "shield themselves". They could have been shielded by society for a fraction of the damage and cost that has been incurred, until they could be vaccinated.

[quote MercyBooth]@MadameBlobby I saw a Twitter poll about him. None of the choices were complimentary.[/quote]
My husband calls him Harold Bishop. I suspect that would be one of the more complimentary ones.

It’s awful what he’s done in Wales, I feel so sorry for people whose livelihoods he’s destroying yet again.

@PolkadotGiraffe - you have a touching fairh in the ability of this Government to ensure the vulnerable are shielded, given all the arguments your hero put forward (all taken out of the same documentary I have seen) that it failed to shield people in care homes, let alone vulnerable members of society who are in employment and vulnerable members of society who live in crowded housing.

Not to mention all the vulnerable people in the documentary.

You can not treat cancer patients in hospital if many of your staff are off sick or dead because of covid.

You can not treat cancer patients without killing them if your satff have inadequate PPE.

There was initially no safe way to treat cancer patients because there was inadequate PPE and no staff tests.

The first lockdown allowed the NHS time to work out how to reduce these risks - cancer treatment stopped completely but many of the missed cancer diagnoses are people who were, rightly in many cases, afraid of getting covid if they went to hospital.

Now the NHS is treating cancer and trying to catch up on the backlog.

You can not have infected people going into care homes without some of the residents dying. The idea that you can allow visiting and still "protect the vulnerable" is a pipe dream. The inconsistency in saying the vulnerable must protect themselves and then saying but anyone can go near them should be obvious.

Those ranting on this thread are being very childish. You cannot have your cake and eat it and no amount of fingers in the ears, head in the sand will change that.

The fastest way out of this was to comply with restrictions. Those who have not done so are responsible for extra deaths, extra economic damage, long term disabilty.

[quote Walkaround]@PolkadotGiraffe - you have a touching fairh in the ability of this Government to ensure the vulnerable are shielded, given all the arguments your hero put forward (all taken out of the same documentary I have seen) that it failed to shield people in care homes, let alone vulnerable members of society who are in employment and vulnerable members of society who live in crowded housing.[/quote]
I have zero faith in the Government. I think I've been clear that their shambolic management of this is the reason we are in this mess. What I have said is that, once again, the strategy they are pursuing is the wrong one and there are other options that would do less damage. Why do you think they refused to release a cost/ benefit assessment?

What options do you think would do less damage at this point in the hands of this government?