January Lockdown

[MarshmallowManiac]

Do you think this will all end in another lockdown in January, or just a continuation of the tier system?

It depends, don't it on what happens between now and then.

It's quite clear that they will do that if rates go too high.

Yes let's hope everyone is sensible at Christmas midgebabe

I'm hopeful that it will stay with tiers. The really shocking second spikes seem to be coming down almost as rapidly in the countries that hit it a few weeks before us (Spain, France, Belgium) and we are coming down too, it seems.

Hopefully Christmas won't have too shocking an impact. I can't believe a Tory govt would let something go through that is designed only to provide people with some fun with very little economic benefit if scientists had been adamant that it would cause a 3rd spike.

Chris Whitty didn't look too happy about how the country would be after Christmas though manic did he, he looked a little worried. I worry when the scientists look concerned

@MarshmallowManiac

Chris Whitty didn't look too happy about how the country would be after Christmas though manic did he, he looked a little worried. I worry when the scientists look concerned

As he himself points out, Chris Whitty's concern is only health. He admits that the economic and social side of the country is not his area.

But, from the way he puts it, I feel he would agree that destroying the economy and people's mental and social wellbeing needs to be considered as well as what's going on with Covid.

And even if I'm wrong about Chris, it's the government's job to look at the whole picture.

Tbh, I didnt watch it, just read it on the BBC website tonight. But yes, point taken
But in that case, why, just WHY, give us Christmas?!?

I can see us having another lockdown in late jan / feb. I think people will just ignore the rules sadly from now until Christmas.

Why give us Christmas?

To soften December in Tiers and to give us a break before we enter more lockdowns/tiers through to Spring.

And who’s to say it will even end then? It depends when vaccination gets going properly.

Yes I can see us having to have another lockdown. Community cases will be ramping up just in time for children going back to school. It will ramp up in schools and force more businesses to close to keep schools open.

Yes, I think it's quite likely. They've weighed the cost:benefit of December spending v people's lives and impact on NHS, and the former takes priority.

Seriously what difference will it make it they do.

Yes. They're not making Xmas that safe. Saying people can mix only a week after schools breaking up is asking for trouble.
(If we see people we'll wait until a few days after xmas).

Chris Whitty's concern is only health

Economic experts at Deutsche Bank recently warned of the consequences of Spread Covid for Christmas (SCC). They noted the shortsightedness. After an initial boost from Christmas spending, we're in for one hell of an (economic) January hangover.

I'm not sure whether they included the economic impact of the many thousands of deaths (including the MH effects on the bereaved). And then there's Long Covid - a sizeable proportion of the workforce off sick potentially long-term.

They’ll call it tiers but yes, a third wave is likely middle to end of January.

It's going to be restrictions and loosenings until the vaccination program is seriously under way. That is why we are all so impatient for it to start.

@EssentialHummus

Yes, I think it's quite likely. They've weighed the cost:benefit of December spending v people's lives and impact on NHS, and the former takes priority.

It clearly doesn't. The economic experts have warned of the consequences.

No, it's nothing more than the same old same old false economy shortsighted greed we've seen since the start.

There's a reason why the economy is doing better in countries where effective containment measures were taken.

The problem is where do tier three go when 40% of the country are in it.
When cases rise what’s the next step ? No one ever went down in tiers just up.

Don't care if they lockdown January it's a terrible month anyway.

I feel pretty gloomy and I think Chris Whitty was very clear that there are serious risks.

I don't know if we'll get a lockdown but feels inevitable we'll get a spike in deaths

@onedayinthefuture

Seriously what difference will it make it they do.

Exactly. We’re in tier 3 despite having half the number of cases per 100,000 than we did when we entered lockdown in tier 1. It’s just lockdown by another name.

Meh, the abundent use of tier 3 for any major city (other than London) and its surrounding areas means a very substantial proportion of the population will notice little difference between Dec 2 and Dec 3, some of it on quite spurious data that is not that high compared to other tier 2 areas and declining rapidly.

I wonder if it's been done like that to avoid a "lockdown" in January and just keep the majority plodding along in 90% of a lockdown anyway.

The only practical difference to me is that the DCs can resume their sports and a few more shops open.

Economically there is far, far more at stake though.

@starrynight19

The problem is where do tier three go when 40% of the country are in it. When cases rise what’s the next step ? No one ever went down in tiers just up.

Not true. Liverpool has gone down from tier 3 to 2.

Cases won't go down significantly without a proper lockdown - one that's enforced. Something we clearly aren't going to do.

Professor Devi Sridhar, scientific expert and one of the advisers to the Scottish government, explains it in simple terms:

Viruses move when people move.

We have unrestricted borders and a fake quarantine.

@frozendaisy

Don't care if they lockdown January it's a terrible month anyway.

Our hardworking traumatised doctors and nurses and other frontline workers care.

As will the families and friends of the many thousands facing death or long-term disability from SCC.

I strongly suspect all the businesses who'll suffer from a January of uncontained Covid care too.

Yes I agree with PP that we will probably be in some kind of lockdown situation from mid Jan to the spring when hopefully enough people will have been vaccinated to slowly start easing things.

All the time schools are open the virus will be circulating freely.

With much of the country in tier 3 it's pretty much still going to be a lockdown anyway. Or very similar restrictions to what we've just referred to as a lockdown.