Manchester

[PickMeUpPutMeDownn]

Any guesses what tier we might be in....

Manchester mostly 201-400 cases per 10000 with some 400+
London mostly 101-200 cases per 10000 with some 201-400.
Hence Tier 3 vs Tier 2.
Notice Kent is also mostly 201-400 with some 400+ and also Tier 3.
So no it's not some conspiracy to allow Boris and chums to carry on drinking

I think the most frustrating aspect of still being tier 3 is how long we’ve not been able to have people in our homes for now and how low the rates in Manchester actually were in July when this was first brought in. When they first introduced the tier system in October lots of tier 1 areas had much higher rates than Manchester did in July.

Why does Greater Manchester get lumped together, when other areas are done by local authority.

I get what you're saying, both Lancashire and West Yorkshire were split when the restrictions came in, back in July?. But I do think its better to do it by county

As an aside. There is always confusion about "Manchester" by those who don't live in the north, and by the media, because they often dont understand that
Manchester is a city
Greater Manchester is a county which includes cities and towns

The vast majority of people who live in GM do not live in Manchester. When people say "Manchester" numbers have "always been high", they're wrong. It's the other city/towns/boroughs in GM that that have been consistently high. Rochdale, Oldham etc. Also Bolton had a massive spike a while ago
Its the same in West Yorkshire ("Greater Leeds" if you like). Leeds rates have often been lower than other city/towns/boroughs in WY. Bradford and Kirklees were always higher than Leeds.

Its interesting, because why did this happen? Why did Manchester and Leeds, major transport hubs and large cities, have lower rates per 100,000 than their surrounding large towns and cities? You'd think it would be the other way round

Exactly the same as London.
Many parts of London had much lower rates than other areas of the country that were still in tier 1, and yet they were lumped in with the rest of London in tier 2.
It is what it is. Boundaries have to be drawn somewhere and using local authority boundaries makes sense from an administration point of view.

There's nothing normal about this and there never will be.

Well said.

@Flaxmeadow - thinking about why transport hubs have lower cases, could that be because people come in to work in those cities from the surrounding area, potentially catching the virus, but then are registered on the stats for their local town? I have no evidence for that but just speculating.

As an aside, I wouldn't say 'Greater Leeds' too loudly in the Bradford area

Manchester mostly 201-400 cases per 10000 with some 400+ with numbers coming down - lowest r rate in the country
London mostly 101-200 cases per 10000 with some 201-400. with numbers going up
Hence Tier 3 vs Tier 2.

No doubt the goal posts will shift by 16/12 to mean we stay in restrictions whatever the numbers. Let’s not forget parts of GMcr were put under restrictions in summer when numbers were 17/100k in some area.17!

Funny how those restrictions weren’t necessary elsewhere when numbers reached the major heights of.....17

@AllTheUserNamesAreTaken Cornwall and Isle of Wight are 57 cases/100,000 now and yet are tier 1. Go figure.

Let’s not forget parts of GMcr were put under restrictions in summer when numbers were 17/100k in some area.17!

Yep and that's the case everywhere else too.
Parts of one local authority can have much lower rates of infection than other parts and yet still (unfairly?) in the same tier. Boundaries have to be drawn somehow.

Flatter - Now thinking about why transport hubs have lower cases, could that be because people come in to work in those cities from the surrounding area, potentially catching the virus, but then are registered on the stats for their local town? I have no evidence for that but just speculating.

Maybe it's the infrastructure and roads. Greater Manchester and West Yorkshire are similar and close neighbours. The M62 between Leeds and Manc is one of the busiest roads in Europe. People always moving between the two counties, but people from the other towns and cities in WY and GM don't have to go near Leeds and Manc to do that. They're both such densley populated counties

The city's of Sheffield and Birmingham had really high rates, higher sometimes even than London, and in real numbers, but they're different, more central to their counties.

As an aside, I wouldn't say 'Greater Leeds' too loudly in the Bradford area

Ha yes! They argued for years about the airport name

Let’s not forget parts of GMcr were put under restrictions in summer when numbers were 17/100k in some area.17

But the problem for the Govt with any areas is that they cannot pick out postcodes areas. They have to draw a line somewhere

One postcode might have 30 per 100,000. The postcode area next door, in the next streets, might be 500 per 100,000. I've seen this in my own area. My postcode was hitting 900 per 100,000 sometimes but a mile away it was much lower

It would be a huge, impossible really, task to enforce lockdowns by postcode areas of a few square miles

Ok well the area with highest rate in GM when local restrictions were brought in in July was Oldham and it’s rate was 57/100,000. So basically same as Cornwall (tier 1) now.

@AllTheUserNamesAreTaken

Manchester mostly 201-400 cases per 10000 with some 400+ with numbers coming down - lowest r rate in the country London mostly 101-200 cases per 10000 with some 201-400. with numbers going up Hence Tier 3 vs Tier 2.

No doubt the goal posts will shift by 16/12 to mean we stay in restrictions whatever the numbers. Let’s not forget parts of GMcr were put under restrictions in summer when numbers were 17/100k in some area.17!

Funny how those restrictions weren’t necessary elsewhere when numbers reached the major heights of.....17

Of course, the figures depend on how many tests are being done in each area. No tests = no cases. Will London see an increase in 'heart attacks, strokes, and pneumonia' in coming weeks and months...?

I know other places have it bad and so on, but this is dire. We had a small break booked....so locally its embarassing......canceled now.

Yep and that's the case everywhere else too. Parts of one local authority can have much lower rates of infection than other parts and yet still (unfairly?) in the same tier. Boundaries have to be drawn somehow.

And

But the problem for the Govt with any areas is that they cannot pick out postcodes areas. They have to draw a line somewhere

One postcode might have 30 per 100,000. The postcode area next door, in the next streets, might be 500 per 100,000. I've seen this in my own area. My postcode was hitting 900 per 100,000 sometimes but a mile away it was much lower

It would be a huge, impossible really, task to enforce lockdowns by postcode areas of a few square miles

It may be the same everywhere for boroughs being placed into tiers according to wider regions but the bar has been shifted massively at times for when restrictions are imposed.

When all bar one borough of Greater Manchester was put into restrictions in the summer which meant different households could not mix indoors in houses or restaurants etc or in private gardens, the highest number in the region was 57/100k, the same as Cornwall now as a pp has pointed out. Yet Cornwall is allowed mixing in homes and restaurants

The numbers per 100k on 31/7 when the restrictions were imposed on Manchester were:

Oldham 57
Rochdale 48
Trafford 38
Manchester 25
Rochdale 22
Stockport 17
Tameside 17
Bury 17

(The numbers may be out by 1 or 2 as I’m reading from a graph)

As soon as other areas of the country reached those levels, they weren’t placed under the same restrictions

Still think areas are being treated fairly?

Fewer hospital beds in GM,poorer health due to poverty. More fear, more inequality.

AllTheUserNamesAreTaken

But the lockdowns are not just calculated on cases per 100,000. Other factors are at play.

With the per 100,000 side of it, it isn't just the raw numbers, it's the rate at which those numbers are increasing or decreasing. One area might have low numbers but those numbers might be increasing extremely rapidly, another area might have higher numbers but they have been stable for a long period of time, or are even decreasing

I have finally reached lockdown fatigue so wont be complying if I don't want to. Not that I do anything but work and food shopping anyway ...