Manchester

[PickMeUpPutMeDownn]

Any guesses what tier we might be in....

There's lots of reasons that Manchester has a high infection rate: the R number was significantly higher in Manchester when the first lock down was lifted than in other areas of the country. This was raised by Andy Burnham but was ignored. Huge student population returning to universities in September. Reliance on public transport across the city. None of these factors is related to behaviour.

Yeah tier 3 , I think most people in Manchester expect tier 3 but hopeful for tier 2 .
I think it's madness the run up to Christmas that they can't open it's their busiest time. I just hope the hospitality industry get the financial support or they won't be able to open at all .

Three, based purely on hospital bed occupancy.

Tier 3 and feeling pretty depressed about it now.

Same.

I don't think that Andy Burnham should get any backlash

I did a quick google and the following link shows a guide for the different tiers.

www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/what-difference-between-tier-1-4736123

Has to be tier 3. I wish Burnham hadn't delayed so much last month about going into the original tier 3. Today's announcement will be the government's 'fuck you' to him.

don't think that Andy Burnham should get any backlash

I've developed a bit of a crush on Andy Burnham. Lack of socialising has messed with my mind.

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Meeting indoors (in groups of six) Yes No No
Meeting outdoors in a private garden or hospitality venue (in groups of six) Yes Yes No
Meeting outdoors in a public space
e.g. park (in groups of six) Yes Yes Max of 6 in some
outdoor public spaces e.g.
parks
Pubs, bars, restaurants and
other hospitality venues open Yes Yes Hospitality is closed
with the exception or
takeaways, delivery or
drive-through.
Gyms and leisure centres open Yes Yes In most areas
Wedding receptions up to 15 people Yes Yes No
Funerals of up to 30 people Yes Yes No
Schools, colleges and universities remain open Yes Yes Yes
Travel outside of the are
(and potentially into other tiers) Yes Yes No
Overnight stays with household bubble

or up to six people Tier 1 = Yes
Tier 2 = Permitted with household or support bubble
Tier 3 = Overnight stays are advised against other than with household or support bubble.
Entertainment venues open Yes Yes Indoor venues closed.
Sport and live performances to go ahead Tier 1 =Yes - with 4,000 people or less outdoors and 1,000 people or less indoors Tier 2 = Yes - with 2,000 people or less outdoors and 1,000 people or less indoors Tier 3 = Events should not take place. Drive-in events are permitted
Retail open Yes to all tiers
Personal care venues - including hairdressers - open Yes all tiers

Oh dear - that didn't line up correctly! Sorry

Manchester is almost certainly staying T3. Map is still too purple.

The Telegraph was reports on its front page today that government sources had indicated that "at least one" area which was previously T3 would be downgraded to T2.

Now NOWHERE that has been T3 has as much of a improvement in figures than the Liverpool City Region. So the expectation MUST be that they are going T2.

I've also seen speculation that West Lancashire is going T2.

My feeling is there will be some seeming inconsistency on who downgrades and who doesn't. The interesting thing about Liverpool City Region is the figures in Halton (218.7 per 100,000) remain higher than several other places - notably neighbouring Warrington (206.2 per 100,000) which shares an NHS Trust with Halton (all the Halton patients go to Warrington Hospital not Halton Hospital). So Warrington must have a good case for T2 as well but may remain in T3 as a buffer and because part of the town still looks bad (for locals, anyone fancy going to Bents???). I think Warrington may miss out this time but I'm reasonably confident its likely to go T2 in two weeks time if that happens. I think they are genuinely the borderline case if the indications are that LCR is going to be downgraded.

The other place which was T3 which looks like it might have a case for going T2 is Nottingham.

Everywhere else that was T3 I think is staying firmly T3 for now.

Stoke is definitely headed up to T3. They've had a major incident in the last couple of days due to covid and the situation at the hospitals. Hull is also for the list. Kent will be lucky if it escapes T3. I think Bristol could be borderline T3.

Cornwall will be lonely T1. I can't see many other places joining it there.

Some of it is definitely down to behaviour though ,I'm in Bolton and whilst our rates are falling to many people are still not adhering to the rules,it's so frustrating.

Bents is madness even forgetting the virus I couldn’t be doing with queuing like that for lights!
Behaviour like that has to have had a knock on case wise.

Why does Greater Manchester get lumped together, when other areas are done by local authority.

@RedToothBrush Sky news is saying tier 2 for Liverpool.

Do we know how often it's being reviewed? We won't stay in tier 3 until spring time surely.

It gets reviewed every two weeks.

It was being reported as reviewed fortnightly. That would mean the next (and last review before Christmas) would be the 16th December.

Rates are currently dropping 30% on the previous rolling week in some places, so another couple of weeks may make a big difference in some places.

I know there are now patches in the NW which are back to where they were in September, so thats got to be good.

The big thing that needs to also be kept in mind is the situation in hospitals is apparently lagging 2 to 3 weeks behind the decline in cases, so that might be a factor which keeps some places in a higher tier for longer.

I'm being slightly cautious about whether Liverpool is definitely T2 until there is official confirmation, but on the whole numbers in Liverpool are brilliant compared to where they were.

It must be noted that mass testing isn't having a massive effect as the same pattern of change is apparent in the areas next to the city region which showed a similar rise in cases at a similar time and haven't been included in the scheme - its the restrictions thats made the difference. And I think its well timed and strict enough restrictions. I think Greater Manchester got screwed by early ineffective restrictions which has undermined compliance at this stage.

@Bellal

Why does Greater Manchester get lumped together, when other areas are done by local authority.

Because of how Public Health is run locally. In Greater Manchester its the responsibility of the centralised Greater Manchester Authority under Andy Burnham rather than at a more localised level.

Same goes for the Liverpool City Region.

Other places are slightly different. It just depends on where you are. There are some real oddities. Tbh its a complete mess and has a lot of historical tribalism and previous boundary changes which have never really been fully dissolved.

@x2boys

Some of it is definitely down to behaviour though ,I'm in Bolton and whilst our rates are falling to many people are still not adhering to the rules,it's so frustrating.

It's the same everywhere though, there's always going to be people who don't follow the rules, I really don't think level of compliance will differ much between areas where levels of deprivation etc are similar (which Liverpool and Manchester are).

I do think restriction fatigue is kicking in though carole. If I compare behaviour between people I know in Manchester and those in Liverpool, those in Manchester were strict and kept it up for a long time but thats just slowly ebbed away as it didn't seem to make any difference.

There is a psychological aspect in this too I think.

Manchester will be 3. It stinks.

@Asasmomhasgotitgoingon

There's lots of reasons that Manchester has a high infection rate: the R number was significantly higher in Manchester when the first lock down was lifted than in other areas of the country. This was raised by Andy Burnham but was ignored. Huge student population returning to universities in September. Reliance on public transport across the city. None of these factors is related to behaviour.

I don’t agree with this. These observations don’t indicate that behaviour is not the driving reason. Indeed they raise more questions.

Everywhere went into a 3 month lockdown in March. This should have been enough to bring down the Manchester R number. We know it comes down quickly with this type of restriction. What made Manchester different.

Equally Manchester is not alone in being a city with a student population. There are other comparable cities.

All of these cities experienced the same national lockdowns, the same same failed test and trace.

I’m sorry but the spread is ultimately down to human behaviour, either controlled by government action or by individuals or communities. This has to be part of the explanation and I don’t see how it helps to keep pretending it is not a key factor.

I also don’t think the antics by the national and local government leaders helped encourage the right behaviour.

I suspect tier 3 but am really hoping it could be reviewed very soon.

Trying to be positive for a moment, cases are dropping fast and if we continue in tier 3 they are probably more likely to keep dropping fast. I'd rather we wait a bit and then move down to tier 2 perhaps for the winter than go into tier 2 now and end up back where we were.

It is totally rubbish though. I think there is a chance that Trafford and Stockport might be treated differently because their rates are lower but also have very vocal anti-lockdown tory mps. It shouldn't make a difference but it could.

If we do all end up in tier 3 as well as the wanting to piss off Andy burnham argument, a genuine reason is although cases are dropping very fast, that reduction hasn't been seen in the hospitals yet. As things stand they almost certainly will, but it's not a given yet.

I'm another hoping for 2 but expecting 3.

Depressing isn't the word.

Pre lockdown, returning from work around 10pm, the amount of 'sensible' adults outside pubs NOT socially distancing was infuriating. The same ones who clapped at 8 on a Thursday no doubt.