Will anywhere be in tier 1?

[notevenat20]

Do you think anywhere will be in tier 1? Looking at www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/ the place with the fewest new cases is Teignbridge which is on 53 cases per 100,000 over the last 7 days. It wasn’t long ago when being above 50 was really bad.

Teir 3 where I am was exactly the same as lockdown, because the bloody council added extra rules. So really hoping for teir 2!

It is going to be really difficult to please everyone. My parish is 50, my town 100, areas bordering, 100 to 150, so I assume county will have to be tier 2, even though we have very few deaths, and local hospital quiet.

That's Surrey btw.

Cumbria has also been mentioned as maybe tier 1

]But by that logic local restrictions are always pointless, because neither local authorities or counties are particularly meaningful borders for most people, so you get lots of movement between them. When they put the whole of Essex into tier 2 in October I knew a lot of people confused about what they could and couldn't do because they live in Essex but they work, have family, and would normally shop/go for coffee/eat out in Suffolk, for instance.

Exactly, I can literally run for 5min and cross a bridge that takes me in to Suffolk, in fact I'm in the same postcode area as that part of Suffolk.

As an aside my ASD 10yo is absolutely obsessed by the fact that he can take a step and be in a different county.

Cornwall, Cumbria and parts of the eastern counties (depends on how they divvie up countries - bits of Lincolnshire are very low)

Time to buy shares in companies which produce thermal underwear, I think!

Waxonwaxoff0 I hope not! It's not as blunt a method as national lockdown, but it's still pretty crude. Some of the parts of my county which have higher figures would take an hour to drive to, so hardly local. The closest area with higher figures is 25 mins drive away but tends to be quite insular. They have been much higher than surrounding areas all along, but there has been little seepage to neighbouring councils.

But by that logic local restrictions are always pointless

I guess the govt data people try to work out how much traffic there is between regions as part of their planning. If people regularly travel between two areas it probably makes no sense for them to be in different tiers.

I've heard there's an island in the Outer Hebrides that might get Tier 1. Population - 125 seagulls and 4 seals.

@Whatever9999 also in Tendring and closer to Ipswich than Colchester... I really hope they split Essex into North and South but doubt they will

I'd really hope so... our area is less than 50 cases per 100K which is one of the lowest in the whole of UK and on a downward trend (though cases never got above 100 per 100K in this second wave here)

I doubt anywhere will be in tier 1 until well into the New Year. Main problem with tier 1 is it allows the possibility of six people from different households mixing indoors day after day. This is without a doubt the biggest enabler of the virus after schools 😏.

@Henlie

I doubt anywhere will be in tier 1 until well into the New Year. Main problem with tier 1 is it allows the possibility of six people from different households mixing indoors day after day. This is without a doubt the biggest enabler of the virus after schools 😏.

The problem is it's also the rule that feels most oppressive for most people - not being able to see a friend or family member except outside, in December, feels like lockdown to most people. So in terms of rule fatigue and trying to minimise people simply ignoring restrictions, just leaving it in place for months on end is risky and it's going to take a lot of careful messaging to make people feel that it isn't arbitrary if it is a blanket decision. The risk of blanket decisions is that if people feel like it isn't 'fair' or 'reasonable' that their area is in the tier it's in and so they don't comply. I saw this a lot in Essex when the general feeling was that we were only in tier 2 because the council had asked for it - people felt that we 'shouldn't' be and so that they didn't need to follow tier 2 restrictions; I suspect the same will happen in areas with low rates if absolutely everywhere is in tier 2 or 3, a feeling that they shouldn't be and so it's reasonable to ignore it.

Expecting Carlisle to be at least tier 2 due to our current infection rate. Cumbria's director of Public Health has said he expects our whole county to be placed in the same tier.

Apparently we're in an area which has a lower proportion of hospital beds. Our numbers have gone up over lockdown (stabilizing now though) and we're 162/100k. There's a small area in our county right in the centre which is 199/100k now, so guessing that'll tip the balance anyway to put us up to tier 2.

@notevenat20

Interesting that lots of areas on the messenger are falling now. Unless it’s less testing- it would mean that locking down does work. Not that I want to continue with it of course.

Yes. If the numbers really are falling as fast as it seems part me wants them to extend our lockdown by a week. I am not sure I could bear the numbers shooting straight back up again.

Agree. Always sigh when I read (in Daily Fail for example) that case numbers are falling so we didn't need lockdown in the first place - a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of lockdown and desired outcome of lockdown. To reopen now and see case numbers go back up (when hardly anywhere would be in Tier 1 now) would be so depressing and exasperating. Before lockdown I was in Tier 1, now I would be in Tier 2. Obviously the decreases in cases is in areas that were in Tier 2/3 before lockdown because the decrease in case numbers takes weeks to be seen. These areas' cases are falling due to being in Tier2/3 not due to lockdown. The effects of lockdown are not being seen yet - as demonstrated by Tier 1 areas, nearly all of which are still seeing rising case numbers. That is why a week more lockdown would help. But it definitely won't happen.

Before lockdown I was in tier 1 and now I am more or less guaranteed to be in tier 3!

We were Tier 2 but now 3 :(

www.gov.uk/find-coronavirus-local-restrictions

Birmingham & Manchester in tier 3, London & Liverpool in tier 3, according to the radio just now.

Thought id look and see what we are, but the stupid website is experiencing technical difficulties

I heard London and Liverpool tier 2

I'm tier 2. Does anyone know of anyone in tier 1?

Hospitality industry well and truly killed off

This is madness. I'm in Teignbridge with the lowest rate of infection per 100000 and were in tier 2 just like Liverpool and London.

According to BBC:

But through a manual search (before the site crashed...) we can tell you that tier three areas include Manchester City Council, Birmingham City Council and Leeds City Council.

We understand from the government postcode look-up tool that tier-three areas will include: Manchester, Hull, Newcastle, Nottingham, Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Kent.

Tier two areas include Liverpool City Council and London.