Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

Previous thread here:

Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Bear in mind that Liverpool is the place where they are testing everyone to see if that helps. You'd expect it to be low.

quite agree on the Liverpool point. Mixing the "mass" testing results into P2 was always going to send the positivity rate down, although I did not foresee quite the scale of the fall. I do think it would be better to report these separately, maybe the "mass" testing as pillar 5? 67 LAs had submitted an expression of interest in "mass" testing in their areas, not sure that has progressed yet however when it does it will widen the impact.

Given positivity rates are highly likely to play a part in allocating areas to tiers - assuming that is the way we go in England after the current lockdown - "mass" testing in some areas potentially distorts the picture.

Just to explain the use of " " in relation to mass, I think whilst testing has been ramped up in Liverpool given the timescales and actual numbers tested the use of the word "mass" is something of a stretch.

@mrex I will review my colour palettes :)

So I’m guessing once lockdown ends we will be going back into tiers based on the up to date positively rates at that time. I suspect there will be a few people surprised to find they have gone from a lower tier into national lockdown only to come out into a higher tier. Conversely there will be places like Liverpool who may end up doing down a tier.

Bristol needed to move up tiers more quickly. With 2 unis they should have either quarantined all students 2w or maybe shut the pubs.

Whilst awaiting today's dashboard update had a quick look at the movement at LA level in England for the 7 days to 10th November specimen date and those to 3rd November.

Still an upward movement overall, but as the first graph shows near 80 council areas with a fall in case numbers- cumulatively over 7.600 fewer cases; although offset by the 18,000+ cases added by the 238 Councils with increasing numbers.

Then a regional graph for the North West - majority of councils falling and a net reduction overall; and South East where opposite true. Clearly thoiugh North West reduction from a high start point, and South East increase from a much lower relative position.

24962 cases
168 deaths

20563/156 last Sunday

Sorry 20572... fat fingers 😬

They should definitely create a Pillar 5. Maybe the ridiculous drop in Liverpool's rates will are it obvious to everyone, even the press....

7 day moving average for cases in England, for ease Mondays shown in red and weekends in purple. 21,748 7 day average to 11th Nov as compared with 19,735 on 4th Nov, and 18,263 on 28th Oct. Likely this time next week before we start to see if the current lockdown restrictions are starting to make an impact on case numbers.

Lots of hospital admissions, over 15k currently in hospital

Moderna vaccine 95% effective: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902908.

Looking at the positive cases by specimen date, there is always a drop over the weekend and a spike on a Monday. You would actually think people would have more tests at the weekend...... there must be behavioural reasons behind this. Any ideas?

Is it that postal tests can’t be posted on Saturday afternoons and sundays?

Yes, so anyone wanting to test between Saturday lunchtime and Sunday evening has to wait even if they have the test in their possession, and swab on Monday which is the day they can post it back.

Wouldn't surprise me if there's something behavioural going on around weekends too though, but probably more than one thing and maybe not all in the same direction.

In the early stages of the 2nd wave when Manchester rates were growing very fast, unbelievably some of the walk in test centres were not open at weekends at all! I think they are all open 7 days a week now.

[quote MRex]Moderna vaccine 95% effective: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902908.[/quote]
You do know that this is based on 5 people's result? I am all for vaccines and hope that one/more come through very soon, but ditching science in favor of politics and profit should not be acceptable. Yet serious media outlets write the facts down with a straight face and then forget to actually explain!
Also this simple fact will become -very soon- a double edged sword as soon as anti-vaxxers pick up on it. And then eventually it will do more harm then good. :(

Other bits of news

• Germany ditched the half classrooms and mandatory masks.
• Hungary - despite having had mandatory masks from early oct are now at 6k/day up from around 1k/d in mid-october. Secondaries are now fully online. Let's see the effects.
• and here we are... from oct 29 our numbers seemed to stabilize (for the bingo: half term - check /imo/) and lockdown came on nov. 5. From nov 11 our numbers are creeping up again. Please raise your hand if you actually see any signs of being in lockdown. I don't.

also re:vaccine
If very carefully worded it could be explained that what the world is going to be doing is going into a world wide phase 3 trial once it gets approval. Make everything transparent, communicate clearly and stand up on the rooftops and shout instead of letting idiots do that

Gosh.

www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/18872874.sedbergh-school-reports-multiple-positive-cases-covid-19/

Apparently , mass testing uncovered 53 cases, largely asymptomatic.

Much amusement (if that is the right word) in educational settings today that PM has to SI after spending 45 SD minutes in a room with others . If that is the truth of the matter, of course.

and yet today in BBC-land

""The protective measures in place make schools as safe as possible for children and staff, and schools are not the main drivers of infection in the community.""
www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54908149

"Technical difficulties" again. Is there a briefing today?

I do wish the DfE would stop making such broad sweeping statement that, after further research, makes them look very silly.

There is a preens conference on the bbc timetable for 5pm ish.