Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

• Fewer, not less, sorry!

Thanks MRex that’s reassuring! I think it might be doing the rounds on Twitter - I don’t use it but have seen it a few times on here

@MRex It's not "other" teacher in the ONS analysis, it's "teacher of an unknown type" And the number of them is very much larger than the number of primary or secondary teachers, which does suggest that most teachers simply wrote "teacher" when they were asked their profession. (There aren't that many university lecturers, and I would think most of them would say "lecturer" or "academic" not "teacher" when asked. Nursery teachers were a separate group)

I don't think the issue is whether the time period is the same as other groups firefliess, the question is why that time period (when teachers had only just returned, if at all, for the first part) when more recent data was , in fact readily available.

Sarah Rasmussen is a professor of mathematical statistics at Princeton via Cambridge and Harvard. I tend to accept her concerns as based on deeply understood statistical principles and ethics.

And on the subject of her position on schools and her bias, the scientist here have repeatedly expressed their point of view (not backed up by robust research) in the other direction. The only people who would question that data would, by nature, have a different bias or viewpoint. But someone needs to question sloppy, rushed data.

On another note, data released today shows yet another fall off in school attendance. At secondary level , attendance is below 80%, which is pretty critical.

Ah yes, just had a look at the detailed file www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020, 100,000 total sample set for teachers, healthcare and other professions from 600,000 or so swab tests in that period with a low case number across everyone involved. With such small numbers and probability spread, surely it would be of more value to everyone if someone assessed the test/trace stats of positive cases for teachers against everyone else of similar age, then produced a graph over time.

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Interesting; on attendance there's 10% of children out of school due to being contacts and only 0.2% of children out of school because they actually had a covid positive result and 0.4% maybes. 0.8% can't go in because the school isn't open and 8.2-9.3% isolating. Take 50 kids; 1 kid has covid, 2 might have covid, 4 have a closed school and another 43 just can't go to school because of contact rules (unclear if it's cases in their families or at school sending them home).

Those, I think , are all increases MRex. You sound dangerously like you are arguing for not sending contacts home? Anecdotally, the kids I teach who are SI because of contacts are nearly all out of school contacts, even during lockdown.

One thing they never publish is staff absence statistics. I'd very much like to see those!

Actually, I've just seen we can guesstimate the number isolating due to contacts outside school; 29-30 pupils is the median isolating per pupil covid case, so 13 must be isolating due to non-school contact.

No, not at all @Piggywaspushed, I was thinking rather that it demonstrates more clearly than I think we've seen from earlier data that online learning is critical for children at home, because so many kids should be healthy and able to work.

This is true, although issues still remain of course over childcare, parental input, broadband capabilities, student willingness etc.

By far the most done thing I gave year 11 students recently was a hard copy revision booklet. The online stuff was ignored.

Bloody hell. Low day for cases.
11,299 cases and 608 deaths, 212,533 tests is a little low.

Interesting on mass testing in Liverpool:

twitter.com/katierazz/status/1330999988151848961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1330999988151848961%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2020%2Fnov%2F24%2Fuk-coronavirus-live-christmas-rules-tiers-covid-boris-johnson-latest-updates

The deaths do include, I believe a 10 year old and some quite young people with no underlying conditions (one was 31).

Hospital admissions finally showing drops too, 1506, apparently down 5.5% on last week.

There aren't that many university lecturers, and I would think most of them would say "lecturer" or "academic" not "teacher" when asked

Yes.

I know 3 university lecturers very well. I've just asked them if they would ever refer to themselves as 'teachers' (we were all talking online). The answer was a resounding 'no' and I also asked them if they thought any of their colleagues would - also a resounding 'no'. The teaching part of the job is usually the least interesting to academics - also not what they're measured against which is usually how much research money they bring in and number of publications (& their impact).

Yes, cases very low - though super low number of tests yesterday also though - 212,533, versus 234k last Monday.

Big drops across all the Nations today.

I suspect tomorrow might see some more catch up....

Deaths unsurprising tbh, but very flat when looked at by actual date of death because of low reporting over weekend.

Let's hold our breath about down the back of the safe cases

Although if testing is down maybe it is right.... maybe demand is dropping because of lockdown working 🤞🤞 (got to be glass half full!!)

The cases reported today for England - 9854 - is the lowest since 2nd Oct. the lower number itself is not overly surprising as the bulk of specimen dates are from Saturday and Sunday. Specimen dates themselves have a slightly longer tail today, 83% cover past 3 days, rather than the 90% plus that we have started to see fairly consistently over the past few weeks.

That said second half of last week clearly is going to come out some way lower than the second part of the week before that. Last Friday currently stands at 14502 as compared with 21610 on Friday 13th; whilst it may end up around the 15000 mark that is still a significant fall.

I really hope this is the start of a big drop in cases. Northern Ireland’s seems almost unbelievable for today - 79 positives from 3626 tests

Very low cases, uncomfortably low for me especially on a Tuesday which can be high.

Now admit it, who's been hiding those positive tests? Have they been put into a box with the missing millions of Trump votes? Have they asked another of BJ's mates to run a new excel spreadsheet on their phone?

Haha, I just saw the drop in cases and came on here to see if anyone else was concerned they were going to find a good 15k extra cases down the back of the sofa soon!

The map looks like well distributed drops, so if they went down the back of the sofa it's test centre or spreadsheet, but more likely spreadsheet. I don't think it is tough, it stabilised a while back and drops happen after that. This time next week we should be on under 8000, maybe even under 6000 (I can dream).

Other European countries seem to be dropping equally fast, which makes me inclined to believe it.

Yes very encouraging drop in cases today 🙂

On schools, the figures on numbers missing school and the reasons suggest that reducing isolation time for contacts to a week followed by a test would have a big impact on the amount of school being missed. That's what they're talking about doing for contacts in general so hopefully that includes kids.

DD's sixth form seems to be doing very well with the alternate week schooling. I don't know why they don't mandate that for sixth formers and allow it as an option for secondary schools in areas with high numbers off. Online learning is a lot better when it's been planned for (and far better than DD received during the summer term)

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

Other European countries seem to be dropping equally fast, which makes me inclined to believe it.

You see now I have hope our trip overseas in the new year won't be cancelled

Comparison of tests vs positives for figures reported on Tuesdays during November (PCR tests only):

3 November - 207,473 / 20,018

10 November - 234,079 / 20,412
17 November - 223,912 / 20,051
24 November - 201,209 /11,299

Processed test numbers reported Tuesdays are regularly the lowest day of the week. Thought I'd read somewhere that they were going to start emptying post boxes more diligently over the weekend to get test results back quicker but that doesn't seem to be the case. Pillar 1&2 capacity is over 500K so either people aren't coming forward for tests or they've cut weekend overtime payments. Be interesting to see how the rest of the weeks numbers go.