Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Does it not look like tiers 2 and 3 are enough to reduce R below 1, but only if there's enough immunity in the population, so tier 2 is fine for Liverpool or London, but not so much for the South East, where there's not that rump of immunity preventing spread.

Hmmph Agree. I think you are a poster close to me, and I have been looking in closer detail around my area. Some smaller areas trending down noticeably, and others, often with hospitals trending up, not unsurprisingly. Surrey as a whole going up on seven day trend, but again I notice that over the last couple of days, it has come down a lot, so hoping this will reflect in a couple of days, by bringing the rolling seven day average down. South East going up, but very much driven by Kent.

ONS data here

Incidence rate in England
Based on statistical modelling, we estimate that during the most recent week of the study¹ (8 November to 14 November 2020), there were 7.14 new coronavirus (COVID-19) infections per 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 6.29 to 8.09)1. This equates to 38,900 new infections per day (95% credible interval: 34,300 to 44,100).

i.e. the incidence rate appears to have levelled off in the most recent week.

England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 80 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 85 to 1 in 80).

Positivity rates continue to increase in primary school-aged children. The highest rates are seen among secondary school-aged children and older teenagers and young adults; however, trends vary between these groups.

Indie SAGE should be online in about 10 minutes

Picking up on points above the devil really is in the more local detail and as several posters have noted in their areas there is a mix of sometimes quite dramatically upward - the likes of Swale in Kent springs to mind - an increasing trend, flattening or starting to show a decline.

My part of East London seems determined to counter any downward trend seen by some other London boroughs and I have no idea why. Local council just repeats the PHE numbers without suggesting any specific issues.

They did open a new permanent testing site a month ago, so we now have three for the borough (only one in September) but without data showing number of tests carried out there's no way of knowing whether the rising numbers correlate to rising tests.

@sirfred I think I'd agree with that re tier 2 maybe being enough for area that have seen high numbers already, and not for the areas that previously got off very lightly like much of the south east. It's very hard to know how much that's down to a number of people having already had it (who are disproportionately those most at risk of catching it) but also due to people being more complacent in areas where they've had months and months of restrictions but don't personally know anyone who's had it, or been seriously ill. My mum's in the south west and says people are quite dismissive of the risks where she is, saying it's only students and tourists that you need to stay away from. I guess that will start to change in the areas getting hit hardest currently, though there are still some areas (eg Sussex) that haven't been hit badly in either wave and I would guess might be at the highest risk of a future surge, if they're put into tier 1 type restrictions.

@Baaaahhhhh Yes, I’m local to you. Have you seen the Surrey County Council statistics? Nothing that’s not in the National information, but they have put each area into a graph.

Whoops, I forgot the link! www.surreycc.gov.uk/people-and-community/emergency-planning-and-community-safety/coronavirus/alert-levels-and-local-outbreak-plan/figures-and-statistics

@FeelingBIue

My part of East London seems determined to counter any downward trend seen by some other London boroughs and I have no idea why. Local council just repeats the PHE numbers without suggesting any specific issues.

They did open a new permanent testing site a month ago, so we now have three for the borough (only one in September) but without data showing number of tests carried out there's no way of knowing whether the rising numbers correlate to rising tests.

If you have high levels of deprivation/ multigenerational or multi occupancy living/ susceptible BAME residents, then that would acccount for rising cases maybe? Also, if you have large numbers of schools and colleges as the latest ONS figures show the greatest rises in ages 2- 25.

Does anyone know if there is a briefing from Downing St today? I think I heard Matt Hancock is on at 5 pm but not sure if I got the day wrong.

Just checked, don't know why I didn't do that in the first place. He is on at 5 with Stephen Powis.

@ancientgran he did one earlier in the week

@ancientgran yes BBC are reporting he’s leading it at 5pm

I have heard more good news about vaccinations so he might be sharing that.

He's a busy boy isn't he. I won't object if it is good news but I am having real trouble listening to him and Boris, I just seem to switch off, the one they did the other day with Dame Angela and another woman I was fine. Maybe I'm being sexist.

20252 and 511 today. Still holding steady

27301 cases reported last Friday so hopefully a good sign

Trends are definitely looking good today - cases down on last week, despite almost 400,000 tests today (highest ever). Hospital admissions definitely plateaued too, which suggests that the Zoe app's claims that cases have been falling for a week or two might just be correct (with reported cases failing to fall as quickly due to increased or better targeted testing) And the Telegraph is claiming they've seen leaked government plans to vaccinate all adults over 18 by April!

Looks like it's steadying, down 8.8% compared to the previous week.

395,436 tests reported yesterday too, so no lack of testing at the moment. That's the highest so far, although it does include Pillar 4 antibody tests. There were 386825 PCR tests, which is still the highest yet.

Cross posted with FireFliess.

So, cases are falling in every age group except secondary school aged children where it's going up...does this not just mean it's going to start to go back up again in other age groups through family contacts?

Also once we get over the half term effect, possibly.

Have people read the BBC's expose of quite what's gone/going wrong with T&T? It's shocking:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55008133

I love this thread thank you.

I guess it's only to be expected that whilst schools remain open the rates will steadily rise amongst school aged children.

That's not to say schools should necessarily close, I know it's not that simple.

I do think though that if schools close we need a temporary drive to stop young people mixing. I know how hard all this has been on older teens and that many have mixed regardless, but it's pointless to close schools of they meet up at the park, share car rides etc.. Just for a short time they would really need to stop mixing....

Some will/would/did still meet but not the vast majority, I'm sure.

@FeelingBIue

my son is a TA in an Academy run primary in Newham where cases continue to rise .

www.newham.gov.uk/downloads/file/2500/public-dashboard-18-11-20-js-pdf

Each year group of 3 classes = one bubble .Lunch time = sandwiches in classroom supervised by dinner ladies with class teacher in staff room .

A TA went home sick on a Tuesday because of uncontrollable coughing .
Confirmed positive on the Thursday . Is in hospital v unwell .

School still open ,no bubbles isolating at home .