A potential vaccine? What does that mean initially for those who aren't eligible for it?

[3littlewords]

Encouraging news today that a vaccine has been found that's 90% effective. However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

Will the virus just left to run through the rest of society as they will most likely not need any NHS support? Will 14 day isolating for close contacts still take place? Will school bubbles still close for 14 days ?

Given children will probably be the last people to be vaccinated (if at all), how will this affect education? Will they still be required to test and isolate every time they show any symptoms? Will there continue to be a disruption to teaching?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?
What does the news of a vaccine mean for the majority that won't be eligible (initially anyway)?

Well it's just obvious isn't it?

How do you think the economy runs smoothly when many many people are in hospiral or off ill - with a significant minority long-term sick.

Staff, clients, and customers all ill - and therefore not working, spending, or doing business with you.

You have to weigh up impact of people getting CV and economic impact of SD. The latter is severe.

@SheepandCow

Well it's just obvious isn't it?

How do you think the economy runs smoothly when many many people are in hospiral or off ill - with a significant minority long-term sick.

Staff, clients, and customers all ill - and therefore not working, spending, or doing business with you.

No no, what's your evidence that there will be so many working age people completely incapacitated that it causes a problem say when the over 65s are vaccinated?

Why would you have us stay in lockdown? Based on real evidence please, not your opinion.

First, it won't be manageable numbers in hospital until we have vaccinated a significant proportion of the population.

Lots of lower risk people might not at high risk of death but still require hospital treatment.

Separately, economic and psychological researchers have found that people don't want to put their lives (and the lives of their loved ones) at unnecessary risk. So they don't go out and about as normal.

We will have to maintain some form of restrictions, even if just masks and social distancing, for some time to come.

As the WHO and other scientific and medical experts have said, the rollout of vaccines is very good news but not a panacea. They've warned that we mustn't yet drop our guard.

Some relaxation, yes, but we will need to continue taking precautionary measures.

@MarshaBradyo

You have to weigh up impact of people getting CV and economic impact of SD. The latter is severe.

Funny the countries who have contained Covid all have healthier economies.

Failure to contain has the most severe economic impact.

It’s not a given, I would be interested in modelling on it too from people in the know.

Whilst rolling out we can’t drop our guard (eg this wave as it takes a while) but as Sir John Bell said the other day we’d be getting back to normal by Spring. He knows how much vaccine we have currently.

Sheep Yes obviously but you are talking about retaining SD after vaccine deployment above a certain age. Obviously that will curtail productivity.

Anyway more data / insight is needed. Not just speculation.

sheepandcow

There’s social distancing, and there social distancing. Not holding Glastonbury I can see might have to stick around, but not being allowed to meet in groups of more than 6 even outside I hope won’t.

Also how long are you thinking? I’m aware the vaccine doses we have purchased won’t be rolled out till mid next year anyway. I can see some form of social distancing for most of 2021 (milder than now I hope!), but not much beyond that. It would be disproportionate to do so if the NHS isn’t getting overwhelmed.

@TrustTheGeneGenie
Hospitals have treated many many Covid patients under 65. And many more, whilst not ill enough for hospital, have been off sick for weeks and sometimes months.

Some people are keen to downplay the risks. They read that poorer people and BAME communities are at greater risk. So if you're an affluent white person (with few morals) perhaps you won't care.

Horrible attitude aside, it's worth bearing in mind that lower risk doesn't mean no risk. And also that those Others are very often doing the jobs that help give you what you see as a normal everyday life.

Delivery, retail, front of house hospitality, warehouse, security, cleaning, driving, etc.

They are a huge and very vital part of the economy. Just 10-15% of them off sick and you'll see a big economic impact.

There are very real effects of retaining SD on people’s livelihoods including lower income, probably even higher impact on this group.

Decisions will be made on least harm which isn’t only hospital cases.

Restrictions are in place to stop the NHS being overwhelmed... Once elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated the chances of an over run NHS are tiny and will not warrant restrictions.

It will be vaccine for elderly and vulnerable and herd immunity for the rest of us. That is unless we get 4-5 vaccine and have a large supply that everyone can get a vaccine... I fully expect once those first demographics are vaccinated that restrictions will be lifted.

You can fuck right off with masks and SD when the vaccine’s here.

@MarshaBradyo

It’s not a given, I would be interested in modelling on it too from people in the know.

Whilst rolling out we can’t drop our guard (eg this wave as it takes a while) but as Sir John Bell said the other day we’d be getting back to normal by Spring. He knows how much vaccine we have currently.

Weren't we due to get some of the other vaccines by then? I'm pretty sure that was said.

I agree with the expert opinions I've heard. We should be able to relax things a bit by spring, but certainly not completely.

I'd hope yes that by this time next year (hopefully sooner) we should definitely have vaccinated enough of the population.

Professor Devi Sridhar is hopeful for Spring.

Next 4 months will be rough but COVID situation will be massively better by March b/c of promising vaccines, better testing & treatments & increased understanding of transmission. Hold out for the Spring

@SheepandCow

First, it won't be manageable numbers in hospital until we have vaccinated a significant proportion of the population.

Lots of lower risk people might not at high risk of death but still require hospital treatment.

Separately, economic and psychological researchers have found that people don't want to put their lives (and the lives of their loved ones) at unnecessary risk. So they don't go out and about as normal.

We will have to maintain some form of restrictions, even if just masks and social distancing, for some time to come.

As the WHO and other scientific and medical experts have said, the rollout of vaccines is very good news but not a panacea. They've warned that we mustn't yet drop our guard.

Some relaxation, yes, but we will need to continue taking precautionary measures.

Still no evidence then?

It is the virus killing the economy, not the restrictions themselves" says Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh.

Devi Sridhar is in the pay of the Scottish Government and had been a perennial voice of doom.

Professor Devi Sridhar, one of the scientific advisers to the Scottish government:

Not sure how many times I have to repeat this: "It is the virus killing the economy". Deal with your public health problem first. And learn from countries saving their economies -> largely in East Asia.

^East Asia did 3 things:

1. Robust test/trace/isolate. Test results back within 24 hours, tracing above 80%, and supported isolation (financial, emotional, and in hotels).
2. Strict border control. Testing & quarantine at borders.
3. Strong guidance to public on avoiding virus.^

When will Europe realize this? Countries only flattening the curve (instead of completely stopping COVID-19 spread) will be caught in cycles of lockdown/release that will destroy the economy and cause social unrest.

@SheepandCow

It is the virus killing the economy, not the restrictions themselves" says Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh.

Of course closing sectors completely is damaging the economy. Or closing them partially. The virus too but it’s both. After it’s not longer necessary then the restrictions will be dropped. People will still end up in hospital just not overwhelm it. It’s a bit nerve wracking yes but I can see why we need to get going again.

But she says Spring anyway? So in agreement.

But we’re moving on to next phase. Thank god! Post vaccine. And no more talk of first steps.

[quote Racoonworld]@SheepandCow what would you like to happen then? The majority of the non-elderly and non-vulnerable population won’t be getting the vaccine any time soon. Do you want restrictions to continue until everyone gets it? I’m hoping we can go back to normal once the people most at need are vaccinated.[/quote]
Personally I’d hope masks in workplaces, shops and public transport would continue till vaccines are available to anyone who wants one. They reduce transmission and viral load so would help ensure that younger people get a milder infection and hopefully reduced risk of long covid.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/flattening-curve-new-zealand-coronavirus?

And this from a couple of weeks ago:

On a panel with several CEOs yesterday and their message was clear -> it's the virus impacting consumer behaviour & their businesses, not just restrictions. Already clear that controlling the virus with a clear strategy is best route to economic recovery

@MarshaBradyo

But we’re moving on to next phase. Thank god! Post vaccine. And no more talk of first steps.

That's brilliant. Once we get to post vaccine stage. Hopefully very soon, but we're not there yet. We should indeed be positive but we cannot yet drop our guard and completely relax all of the precautions. The finishing line is in sight - but we still need to reach it.

Sheep agree it’s not immediate but we both seem to be saying Spring and referencing scientists who say the same. Fingers crossed for good news on Oxford vaccine soon which would help enormously.

@WouldBeGood

Devi Sridhar is in the pay of the Scottish Government and had been a perennial voice of doom.

Eh? She's full of positivity and inspiration.

The doomsters are those who failed to listen fully to her expert advice. (Tbf to Nicola I don't think she had authority to close borders?).