A potential vaccine? What does that mean initially for those who aren't eligible for it?

[3littlewords]

Encouraging news today that a vaccine has been found that's 90% effective. However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

Will the virus just left to run through the rest of society as they will most likely not need any NHS support? Will 14 day isolating for close contacts still take place? Will school bubbles still close for 14 days ?

Given children will probably be the last people to be vaccinated (if at all), how will this affect education? Will they still be required to test and isolate every time they show any symptoms? Will there continue to be a disruption to teaching?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?
What does the news of a vaccine mean for the majority that won't be eligible (initially anyway)?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?

Far too early to say or even really predict.

The front line workers and most vulnerable are the priority, but a lot of the population would still be weary of mixing etc without a vaccine, whereas a lot of the population would rather just get on with things as normal even now.

There'll be restrictions through next year, but if a vaccine is rolled out imminently, and it's effective, then we're coming out the other side at least.

We’ll have to wait and see what the government say, I suppose.

But I’d guess that most quarantine / social distancing measures will remain in place at least until enough people have been vaccinated to give herd immunity. Which will take a long time.

It's far too soon to know the answers to any of your questions op. We don't even know if it will be available in the uk yet.

My guess would be that it'll be rolled out in this order:

Key workers in health care
Other high-exposure key workers such as teachers
The extremely vulnerable
The vulnerable
Key workers not covered by above
Then in descending age-group order

[quote TheWhalrus]@3littlewords I think the plan is to roll out the vaccine to high-risk frontline workers first (ie NHS staff, teachers, other essential public services). I suspect the elderly may receive this fairly soon, although not until specific data from that populations are available. Children are less likely to receive this vaccine very soon, especially not young children and infants (no efficacy data and a relatively low-risk population).[/quote]
Do you think there will still be a need for the disruption to education we are seeing at the moment if children aren't being vaccinated?

I'm worried about what this would mean for universities, given the huge numbers of cases we've had on campus. Virtually no students or staff would be vaccinated. At the moment I'm comfortable with the situation as my teaching, although face to face, is physically distanced and students have to wear masks. I can imagine a situation where there being a vaccine means that the risk is deemed low and we are told to teach without the masks and distancing while huge numbers of students are infected.

@WitchesSpelleas

My guess would be that it'll be rolled out in this order:

Key workers in health care
Other high-exposure key workers such as teachers
The extremely vulnerable
The vulnerable
Key workers not covered by above
Then in descending age-group order

That'll take forever!

@antihop the UK had already ordered 30 million doses of this vaccine

I've wondered this too, we're 39 so will be at the back of the queue but also don't want to live like this for months until we do qualify (or we can buy it?!)

Selfishly I'm hoping it will be like the flu jab in that you can pay for it privately if you're not eligible for the free one... A lot will depend on the logistics especially as this one needs to be stored so cold, and the available supply in general.

@viccat

Selfishly I'm hoping it will be like the flu jab in that you can pay for it privately if you're not eligible for the free one... A lot will depend on the logistics especially as this one needs to be stored so cold, and the available supply in general.

Jinx, we've wondered that too.

I get a flu jab free through work so wonder if we'll get this free too.

We're preparing to do the vaccine (Boots) so I'm hoping it will be managed in a similar way. I bet it'll be more than £10 though

Wow, I could cry, thank you for the heads up @3littlewords

I'm ill with sodding covid give me a break googlers!

My prediction is that we'll need anti-COVID measures of some sort until summer next year. Possibly not so much after that.

Don't forget there will almost certainly be other vaccines coming on the scene too, so it won't be only about this particular one, some of our population may be vaccinated with a different one. That will help speed things up.

I think restrictions will start to ease as they roll it out.

A lot of people will just want to get on with their life knowing they have a small risk of getting it and a smaller risk of being really unwell. With those at higher risk getting the vaccine there will not be the same justification for shutting down business and banning social interaction with friends and family.

I will be at the back of the queue and that is fine. If they make the vaccine mandatory for things like flying etc I would personally seek out getting it done privately no matter what the cost.

I expect SD and masks will be around for a while, but this should negate the need for any other full lockdowns.

Once the frontline and vulnerable are done, I think they should prioritise grounds where it spreads rapidly, like Uni students.

I think its bloody awesome news. 90% efficacy rate is way more than we had been expecting.

As for those calling 1 in 10 "Russian roulette" - JFC. You do know that even if you are ECV/elderly and you get covid you're still overwhelmingly more likely to survive than die from it?

Anyone vulnerable whether due to age or other issues has always and will always be susceptible to any viruses that are circulating, we cant give that complete peace of mind for anyone

This is true, but bearing in mind how many people, particularly vulnerable people, have been scared out of their minds all year over catching a virus that while extremely dangerous has over 90% recovery rate in even the very highest age groups.

It'll be difficult to get a lot of people to feel confident again even with a vaccine if it comes with a 10% risk.

They have to give that warning though that it's not 100% and an effective vaccine is the only real way out of this.

I think by April-May we will be back to normal. This is fabulous news.

The stock market is up almost 5 per cent. That usually tells you that this is very good news indeed as the market tends to predict. The vaccine is much better than expected. That coupled with the Biden victory is very good news. Now Bojo will have to do a deal with the EU too and this dark period in history will soon just be a memory. As this virus is such a global issue governments will work together and organise doses for everyone. We have enough pharma capacity in Europe.

90% sounds more effective than the flu vaccine.

You don't need everyone to have it, we don't all get the flu vaccine now, but if the vulnerable and those most likely to come into contact with the vulnerable have it, that reduces circulation in all groups, not just the vulnerable groups.

Surely using the 80/20 rule - vaccinating the 20% most vulnerable will have quite dramatic results for society Exactly this.

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks

hopefully people will continue with both to some extent, as it reduces the transmission of other diseases. We could carry on wearing masks in enclosed busy areas and stop handshakes.

@annabel85

It's very promising but will circa 90% give vulnerable enough piece of mind while rates if Covid are still high? A 1 in 10 chance is still Russian roulette.

If 90% isn't good enough then it was a waste of time trying to make a vaccine - it's far higher than was expected, which is one of the reasons that this is such great news. There is never going to be a 100% effective vaccine so if we're ever going to get back to normal it'll have to be with the understanding that Covid-19 is still a risk, just a greatly diminished one. I think that's going to be a really tough sell for some people and in some places (it might, for instance, be difficult for NZ to accept that the choice is a low but not insignificant number of Covid deaths each year or never opening their borders again) but it's the only realistic way to proceed, surely?

I think I would be a little wary of taking this vaccine. Some side effect can take years to become apparent. I am in no way anti vax (very far from it) however I would be wary of accepting this.