A potential vaccine? What does that mean initially for those who aren't eligible for it?

[3littlewords]

Encouraging news today that a vaccine has been found that's 90% effective. However as initially it will be rolled out to those front line workers, the over 80s and those CEV , what does that mean for everyone else?

Will the virus just left to run through the rest of society as they will most likely not need any NHS support? Will 14 day isolating for close contacts still take place? Will school bubbles still close for 14 days ?

Given children will probably be the last people to be vaccinated (if at all), how will this affect education? Will they still be required to test and isolate every time they show any symptoms? Will there continue to be a disruption to teaching?

When will it be acceptable to reduce the need for SD and masks? When everyone has been vaccinated? When the NHS is no longer overwhelmed? When the number of deaths reduce? When?
What does the news of a vaccine mean for the majority that won't be eligible (initially anyway)?

People keep saying that Germany (and I've also seen NZ) will vaccinate everyone but I thought that all EU states were signed up to WHO's Covax scheme, which limits the percentage of its population a country can vaccinate? Have I misunderstood this?

I agree with this, but convincing people that this is 'ok' will take a huge, huge effort. Convincing people to lockdown, isolate, change their lives, etc took a huge and largely successful campaign to persuade them that Covid was a unique and terrible threat: that it was a threat to us all not just the vulnerable, that even if you didn't die there was a risk of long Covid and so you couldn't be complacent, etc - all of which was true, but also true of many other diseases that we don't react like that to. The actual truth - that it was a unique threat but because of the possibility and consequences of mass infection at once, not the disease itself - was, I guess, not deemed compelling enough to persuade people to take action as radical as that needed. The difficulty with this is that vaccination of the vulnerable is a solution to the actual situation, but not to everyone who fears dying of Covid despite actually being in a low-risk group. If we want people to accept that the Covid vaccine will be distributed and run as for 'normal' diseases - and that it'll mitigate deaths but not eliminate them - we need first to persuade them that it is a normal disease, which isn't the current public perception

Brilliant post. The psychology of this whole thing is fascinating.

Can someone explain why the government keeps talking about rolling out this vaccine in December when Pfizer haven’t even completed this first (interim?) analysis — and are expecting it to still be weeks at least before they do?

Feels like jumping the gun?

because there are always a percentage of people who can't have a vaccine for their own health reasons, so they would just become second-class citizens

As they tend to be people with serious immune system conditions, they already are - they are in the shielding group. But if a high proportion of the population were immunised, day to day life will become hugely safer. For them and for everyone.

@Hardbackwriter

People keep saying that Germany (and I've also seen NZ) will vaccinate everyone but I thought that all EU states were signed up to WHO's Covax scheme, which limits the percentage of its population a country can vaccinate? Have I misunderstood this?

The way I understand it, COVAX is to ensure that every country can vaccinate at least 20% of their population. Self-funding (i.e. high income) countries can commit to buying through COVAX for up to 50% of their population, once there's enough for every country to get their 20%. Countries can also buy direct from the manufacturers but there's no guarantee when there will be enough vaccine to fulfill the orders. I would hope manufacturers would prioritise COVAX but I don't know the details.

'we need first to persuade them that it is a normal disease, which isn't the current public perception'. It isn't though is it. It doesn't behave like a normal disease. First of all, it is new, so none of us had immunity. That's very different from other viruses. It's highly contagious. There was no known cure, or treatment, none at all.

The only reason why it's safer now is because our knowledge of how to manage it has increased 100%. Then there is long covid, which we still don't understand well, or treat effectively.

I think you will struggle to convince people that it's a 'normal' disease, when there are so many aspects of it which we still don't understand, or can manage.

What I gathered from Boris is that things won't be changed just yet. We might go back to summer levels. It will take a long time to get around even all the vulnerable. You'll still have lots of sick people in their 40s and 50s. According to my Dr friend she thinks another year or so of current situation.

Also what about those who refuse a vaccine?

Long covid is serious and scary and as a 30 year old I know people my age who have long covid. So I'm excited but know we still have a good while to go.

@Lelophants

What I gathered from Boris is that things won't be changed just yet. We might go back to summer levels. It will take a long time to get around even all the vulnerable. You'll still have lots of sick people in their 40s and 50s. According to my Dr friend she thinks another year or so of current situation.

Also what about those who refuse a vaccine?

Those who refuse it are taking their own chances surely?

And how many sick healthy 50yos are we realistically going to have?

@Lelophants

What I gathered from Boris is that things won't be changed just yet. We might go back to summer levels. It will take a long time to get around even all the vulnerable. You'll still have lots of sick people in their 40s and 50s. According to my Dr friend she thinks another year or so of current situation.

Also what about those who refuse a vaccine?

Those who refuse the vaccine take their own chances, and will have to go back to work as previously, even if they feel that their workplace isn't "covid safe". It's their choice not to have the vaccine, so if they refuse to return to work, then they are effectively giving notice of leaving it.

The whole country needs to get back to as near "normal" as possible as quickly as possible once the NHS is back to normal, the vulnerable are vaccinated, etc. It's already cost us hundreds of billions in lost trade, support, lost taxes, etc. The rest of the World will be coming out of it at the same time and we can't afford to be left behind on a Worldwide basis. At the moment, all other major Western countries are suffering like we are, so the effects aren't that bad (wealth is relative). But we need to be on the starting blocks ready to go as soon as we can. That means workplaces, schools, etc getting back to normal without delay.

It’ll take a while to deploy then take effect after second dose but then I agree economic concerns will become a priority and a lot will go back. It’s more to do with NHS so if not overwhelmed we can remove most restrictions, most likely.

Poster upthread asked a good question.
If the government still don't believe the vaccine is entirely safe,why are they rolling it out in the next couple of weeks to the elderly and care home staff?

[quote Lemons1571]Maybe it’s a case of wait and see how it all goes and how people behave? If they stop vaccination when they get down to age 50, there’ll be an awful lot of

@Lelophants

Long covid is serious and scary and as a 30 year old I know people my age who have long covid. So I'm excited but know we still have a good while to go.

It is serious, but until we know how common it is I'm not too worried. All viruses can cause long term effects.

As a teenager I developed CFS from what seemed like a normal stomach bug and missed almost a year of school. I'm a lot better now, but still have to pace myself more than other people my age. I know other people who have developed dysautonomia from viruses long before covid existed. Most people aren't scared of 'long norovirus' or 'long flu' though.

Long Covid is (so far) estimated to affect between 10-15% of patients, including people who had initially mild cases without hospitalisation.

Of course we don't yet know exactly how many people have been affected. For all we know, at this very early stage of a new disease, there might be many people with hidden damage (no symptoms) - that will only come to light in future years.

10-15% is a significant proportion of the working age population potentially long-term sick.

It seems to affect women more than men (perhaps because men are more likely to die).

It's more than CFS symptoms. Varied issues including organ damage - heart, lung, or kidney, type 1 diabetes, neurological problems, blood clotting, and male infertility.

Here's some info on the heart damage.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/04/long-covid-the-evidence-of-lingering-heart-damage

"'we need first to persuade them that it is a normal disease, which isn't the current public perception'. It isn't though is it. It doesn't behave like a normal disease. First of all, it is new, so none of us had immunity. That's very different from other viruses. It's highly contagious. There was no known cure, or treatment, none at all.

The only reason why it's safer now is because our knowledge of how to manage it has increased 100%. Then there is long covid, which we still don't understand well, or treat effectively.

I think you will struggle to convince people that it's a 'normal' disease, when there are so many aspects of it which we still don't understand, or can manage"

Exactly. This is not a normal disease it's a new disease with unknown long term effects. You wont convince sensible people to ignore that and they are the ones most likely to have the money to rebuild the economy. The sensible have little faith in this government and will not be paying much attention to its messages.

The government has ordered doses of more than one vaccine. Most of the population will be offered one eventually. What will convince people to take it up and to go out and spend is evidence that it is actually working. Until then people need to be encouraged to keep the restrictions going.

@SheepandCow what would you like to happen then? The majority of the non-elderly and non-vulnerable population won’t be getting the vaccine any time soon. Do you want restrictions to continue until everyone gets it? I’m hoping we can go back to normal once the people most at need are vaccinated.

[quote Racoonworld]@SheepandCow what would you like to happen then? The majority of the non-elderly and non-vulnerable population won’t be getting the vaccine any time soon. Do you want restrictions to continue until everyone gets it? I’m hoping we can go back to normal once the people most at need are vaccinated.[/quote]
I honestly think there are some people (the government) that would love restrictions to carry on permanently as they seem to be loving all this control over people's lives.

Long Covid is (so far) estimated to affect between 10-15% of patients, including people who had initially mild cases without hospitalisation

10% of everyone who gets its or 10% of everyone who gets it with symptoms?

Long Covid is (so far) estimated to affect between 10-15% of patients, including people who had initially mild cases without hospitalisation

Also very miss leading. Like everything long covid is a spectrum. It can mean a month if fatigue for some and months of worse complications for others. Exactly like the post viral syndromes of other virus including flu. So it isn’t that 10% will have long lasting bad effects at all. A very small percentage might but that’s the same with everything.

[quote Racoonworld]@SheepandCow what would you like to happen then? The majority of the non-elderly and non-vulnerable population won’t be getting the vaccine any time soon. Do you want restrictions to continue until everyone gets it? I’m hoping we can go back to normal once the people most at need are vaccinated.[/quote]
Not much point asking me. I wouldn't have got us into this mess in the first place.
I've been clear from the start about what I would've done. Australia/New Zealand style containment. Shut the borders, except essential travel including food imports, with proper quarantine where necessary, one stricter but ultimately shorter lockdown. And - boom. No need for restrictions (borders aside) by now.

Now? Yes absolutely I'd keep some restrictions until all vulnerable (to death or potential long-term disability) have had the vaccine.

Middle-aged women are not expendable.
BAME communities are not expendable.
Poorer people are not expendable.

Even when Long Covid isn't ongoing, it's still weeks or months off work. That's not good for the economy.

@Racoonworld

Long Covid is (so far) estimated to affect between 10-15% of patients, including people who had initially mild cases without hospitalisation

Also very miss leading. Like everything long covid is a spectrum. It can mean a month if fatigue for some and months of worse complications for others. Exactly like the post viral syndromes of other virus including flu. So it isn’t that 10% will have long lasting bad effects at all. A very small percentage might but that’s the same with everything.

The cash strapped NHS doesn't spend lots of money setting up treatment clinics across the country for something that affects just a 'very small percentage'.

Even when the over 65s are vaccinated, that's still a lot of potential hospital beds needed by the rest of the population.

The most extremely clinically vulnerable are a very large group - millions of them. It's going to take a while to get them all vaccinated.

Some of the highest mortality rates are amongst people with cardiovascular conditions, diabetes (1 in 3 of the deaths), and hypertension. Then there's obesity. That's a lot of people to get vaccinated.

Lots of people, especially younger healthier ones, haven't died, but have needed hospital treatment.

Of course we'll still need some form of restrictions, or at least masks and social distancing until a significant proportion of the population have been vaccinated.

Many of the most extremely clinically vulnerable work in essential jobs.

You can't have a healthy functioning economy when the large numbers of the workforce keep getting ill.

You can't have a healthy functioning economy when the large numbers of the workforce keep getting ill

Where is your evidence for this?

@SheepandCow

Even when the over 65s are vaccinated, that's still a lot of potential hospital beds needed by the rest of the population.

The most extremely clinically vulnerable are a very large group - millions of them. It's going to take a while to get them all vaccinated.

Some of the highest mortality rates are amongst people with cardiovascular conditions, diabetes (1 in 3 of the deaths), and hypertension. Then there's obesity. That's a lot of people to get vaccinated.

Lots of people, especially younger healthier ones, haven't died, but have needed hospital treatment.

Of course we'll still need some form of restrictions, or at least masks and social distancing until a significant proportion of the population have been vaccinated.

Many of the most extremely clinically vulnerable work in essential jobs.

You can't have a healthy functioning economy when the large numbers of the workforce keep getting ill.

If it reduces hospitalisations to a manageable amount illness won’t be a factor.

SD reduces capacity and productivity in various sectors far more than the above.