According to Independent sage, it will take literally weeks to make any progress [8wks plus] without closing schools.
Well yes, I didn't mean it wouldn't affect the rates falling. What I meant was, the risk is say 100x now to a child in school. If lockdown starts tomorrow, next weeks risk will be 95x, then 90x and so on, in theory, when the closing of other things starts taking effect. So, I don't see why parents would be scared to send their kids as the risk lowers, if they have been ok sending them at 100x? Not sure if I am explaining myself right or not here, have taken my meds so possibly not..
The schools being the main drivers thing is very interesting to me, as I remeber before the schools closed last time, it was being spread around the press that it would only change the rate of spread 4% or something very very low, that closing schools wouldn't make that much difference overall. I wonder what changed there.
Honestly, I don't see the point of a 'lockdown' with schools open. Maybe primaries as it seems youg kids barely spread at all. But older kids clearly do. So nowt much is going to change really, and its blatantly obvious this '4 week lockdown' will be from the '3 week lockdown' school of thought, which ended up being 4 months as it was extended over and over!